Table 1. Changing population at risk due to temperature suitability for Aedes aegypti virus transmission.
All values are given in millions; future projections are averaged across GCMs, broken down by year (2050, 2080) and RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5), and are given as net change from current population at risk. 0+/0- denote the sign of smaller non-zero values that rounded to 0.0, whereas “0” denotes true zeros.
| Region | Current | 2050 | 2080 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 8.5 | ||
| Asia (Central) | 69.9 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 15.6 |
| Asia (East) | 1,321.9 | 42.5 | 49.2 | 46.4 | 58.9 | 38.8 | 56.7 | 61.9 | 72.7 |
| Asia (High Income Pacific) | 164.0 | -0.5 | 0+ | -0.5 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Asia (South) | 1,666.4 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 3.7 | -0.5 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 8.2 |
| Asia (Southeast) | 593.9 | -2.1 | 0+ | -0.6 | 2.3 | -2.4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 5.5 |
| Australasia | 12.9 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 8.0 |
| Caribbean | 40.4 | -1.8 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.6 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.5 |
| Europe (Central) | 22.7 | 44.2 | 71.8 | 69.0 | 83.3 | 59.0 | 79.3 | 85.5 | 90.6 |
| Europe (Eastern) | 41.3 | 57.9 | 110.4 | 93.5 | 133.9 | 80.0 | 124.7 | 130.7 | 156.2 |
| Europe (Western) | 114.6 | 47.2 | 132 | 112.0 | 166.8 | 90.3 | 156.4 | 180.8 | 220.9 |
| Latin America (Andean) | 31.3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 5.5 |
| Latin America (Central) | 160.3 | 20.4 | 24.6 | 23.4 | 36 | 18.4 | 34.6 | 39.0 | 61.1 |
| Latin America (Southern) | 42.8 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 12.8 |
| Latin America (Tropical) | 181.8 | 19.2 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.6 | 18.9 | 19.6 | 19.7 | 19.8 |
| North Africa & Middle East | 439.5 | 19.7 | 24.1 | 23.8 | 27.2 | 19.3 | 25.9 | 27.3 | 30.3 |
| North America (High Income) | 281.9 | 36.2 | 48.3 | 42.6 | 55.0 | 37.8 | 53.6 | 57.1 | 62.8 |
| Oceania | 6.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa (Central) | 115.6 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 9.5 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa (East) | 274.8 | 48.8 | 63.7 | 59.1 | 72.2 | 44.7 | 70.8 | 76.6 | 90.9 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa (Southern) | 46.1 | 23.6 | 25.8 | 25.6 | 26.7 | 23.4 | 26.7 | 27.1 | 28.0 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa (West) | 384.0 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.4 |