Fig. 5.

The probability of being slide-positive after the current sample, by initial infection status. Data are shown for the cohorts listed in Table 1 which had available data. Country, first author and year of publication are indicated. We excluded cohorts in which no individuals experienced submicroscopic infection. The Papua New Guinea (PNG) cohort was divided into two because of its long duration, and to show that the choice of start point can be important (PNG 1 started May 2006 and PNG 2 started November 2006). The PNG cohort had a first follow-up time on day 1 and afterwards was followed up on consecutive days every 8 weeks (top 2 panels). Source data are provided as a Source Data file