Group difference in neural activation to a Bayesian signed prediction error (SPE). A. BOLD signal in the left middle frontal gyrus a showing group difference in the temporo-parietal junction (TPJ)/angular gyrus. B. Bar graph displays average P(stop) modulation of percent signal change by trial type (Go vs Stop) and group (Abstinent: n = 38; Relapsed: n = 19; error bars indicate ±1 SEM). In this area, abstinent individuals (grey bars) demonstrated a neural response consistent with a significant de-activation to a signed prediction error (outcome − P(stop)), i.e., a positive correlation between percentage signal change and P(stop) on both Go and Stop trials, whereas relapsed participants (red/striped bars) do not show any significant P(stop) dependent activation on either Go or Stop trials. C. Average percent signal change correlation with a Bayesian SPE (outcome − P(stop) for each group (error bars: ±1 SEM). Relative to abstinent participants who show a strong deactivation to SPE (grey bar), relapsed individuals show an attenuated SPE-dependent activation, which was not significantly different from zero (p > .05).