Table 1.
Parameter Distribution Inputs
| Parameter | Model inputs | Distribution type |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline values,31 mean (SD) | ||
| Age | 59.72 (9.79) | Normal |
| Pain score | 6.20 (1.52) | Normal |
| Pain score reduction,31 mean (SD) | ||
| Duloxetine | 2.57 (2.31) | Normal |
| Desipramine | 1.99 (2.16) | Normal |
| Gabapentin | 2.42 (2.34) | Normal |
| Pregabalin31 | 2.59 (1.87) | Normal |
| Cannabis35 | 1.11 (2.38) | Normal |
| Probability of nonserious AEs,31 proportion (SE) | ||
| Duloxetine | 66.0% (1.2%) | Beta |
| Desipramine | 74.4% (4.9%) | Beta |
| Gabapentin | 66.4% (2.5%) | Beta |
| Pregabalin | 69.1% (1.5%) | Beta |
| Cannabis35,a | 58.6% (3.4%) | Beta |
| Probability of intolerable AEs,31 proportion (SE) | ||
| Duloxetine | 15.7% (1.2%) | Beta |
| Desipramine | 13.8% (4.5%) | Beta |
| Gabapentin | 14.7% (2.3%) | Beta |
| Pregabalin | 12.5% (1.3%) | Beta |
| Cannabis35,a | 4.6% (1.4%) | Beta |
| Probability of serious AEs,31 proportion (SE) | ||
| Duloxetine | 2.4% (0.4%) | Beta |
| Desipramine | 1.3% (1.3%) | Beta |
| Gabapentin | 4.0% (1.1%) | Beta |
| Pregabalin | 2.6% (0.5%) | Beta |
| Cannabis35,a | 0.5% (0.5%) | Beta |
| Cannabis AE risk modifier,35 odds ratio (95% CI) | ||
| Nonserious AEs | 1.74 (1.42–2.14b) | Logistic |
| Nonserious AEs—no active use | 2.07 (1.59–2.70b) | Logistic |
| Serious AEs | 1.08 (0.57–2.04b) | Logistic |
| Serious AEs—no active use | 1.77 (0.72–4.32b) | Logistic |
| Risk of death from SAE59 (by age, years), proportion (SE) | ||
| 18–44 | 1.2% (0.1%) | Beta |
| 45–64 | 1.6% (0.2%) | Beta |
| 65–84 | 1.9% (0.2%) | Beta |
| ≥85 | 2.6% (0.6%) | Beta |
| Adherence,60 mean (SD) | ||
| Duloxetine | 0.86 (0.18) | Beta |
| Desipramine | 0.76 (0.24) | Beta |
| Gabapentin | 0.74 (0.24) | Beta |
| Pregabalin | 0.69 (0.25) | Beta |
| Cannabis36 | 0.84 (95% CI: 0.78–0.90b) | Beta |
| Adherence thresholdc (assumed) | 0.8 (range: 0.5–1.0) | Triangular |
| Discontinuation rate,31 proportion (SE) | ||
| Duloxetine | 1.7% (0.4%) | Beta |
| Desipramine | 2.6% (1.8%) | Beta |
| Gabapentin | 2.3% (0.8%) | Beta |
| Pregabalin | 3.9% (0.7%) | Beta |
| Cannabis35 | 10.7% (2.1%) | Beta |
| Health state utilities,13 mean (SD) | ||
| Mild pain | 0.7 (0.2) | Beta |
| Moderate-to-severe pain | 0.39 (0.33) | Beta |
| Utility decrements, mean | ||
| Tolerable AE61,62 | 0.05d | Beta |
| Intolerable AE63–65 | 0.11d | Beta |
| Serious AE64,66,67 | 0.12d | Beta |
| Office visit costs,68 mean (SD) | ||
| Regular visit | $111 ($7) | Gamma |
| SAE visit | $150 ($10) | Gamma |
| Regular visit, out-of-pocket69 | $51 ($4) | Gamma |
| SAE visit, out-of-pocket69 | $57 ($8) | Gamma |
| SAE hospitalization costs59 (by age, years), mean (SE) | ||
| 18–44 | $7,387 ($130) | Gamma |
| 45–64 | $9,447 ($165) | Gamma |
| 65–84 | $9,664 ($292) | Gamma |
| ≥85 | $8,658 ($340) | Gamma |
| Hospitalization out-of-pocket costs70 | $70 ($37) | Gamma |
| Standard therapy wholesale costs31,71 (1 month supply), mean (SD) | ||
| Duloxetine | $254 ($20) | Gamma |
| Desipramine | $236 ($58) | Gamma |
| Gabapentin | $305 ($99) | Gamma |
| Pregabalin | $485 ($33) | Gamma |
| Standard therapy out-of-pocket costs,71,72 mean (SE) | ||
| Duloxetine | $13.00 ($2.34) | Gamma |
| Desipramine | $22.25 ($7.04) | Gamma |
| Gabapentin | $8.79 ($3.54) | Gamma |
| Pregabalin | $19.63 ($9.98) | Gamma |
| Cannabis cost, mean (SD) | ||
| Price per gram37 | $11.06 ($3.78) | Gamma |
| Cannabis quantification6 | ||
| Daily grams THC | 0.067 (0.034) | Gamma |
| Cannabis wastage | 38.9% (13.2%) | Beta |
a
For cannabis “monotherapy,” when patient is nonadherent to conventional agent but adherent to cannabis.
b
Distribution SD estimated as 1/4 of 95% CI.
c
Range and distribution for adherence threshold used in probabilistic sensitivity analysis only.
d
Distribution SD estimated as 1/2 of mean value.
AE, adverse event; CI, confidence interval; SAE, serious adverse event; SD, standard deviation; SE, standard error; THC, tetrahydrocannabinol.