Table 3.
Cytological and histological abnormalities at age 20 by age at first dose of bivalent human papillomavirus vaccine and immunisation status. Values are adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) unless stated otherwise
| Age groups and dose | Years to first screen | No | Borderline changes | Low grade dyskaryosis | High grade dyskaryosis | CIN grade | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate | Severe | 1 | 2 | 3 or worse | ||||||
| All: 1 dose | 2051 | 0.94 (0.81 to 1.08) | 1.27 (1.05 to 1.53) | 0.89 (0.58 to 1.37) | 1.02 (0.59 to 1.75) | 0.94 (0.53 to 1.68) | 0.95 (0.56 to 1.59) | 1.19 (0.70 to 2.05) | ||
| All: 2 doses | 4135 | 0.94 (0.85 to 1.04) | 1.09 (0.94 to 1.26) | 0.91 (0.67 to 1.24) | 0.62 (0.38 to 1.00) | 0.70 |(0.43 to 1.12) | 0.70 (0.45 to 1.07) | 0.77 (0.48 to 1.24) | ||
| 3 doses: | ||||||||||
| 12 and 13 | 7 or 8 | 16 200 | 0.58 (0.54 to 0.62) | 1.38 (1.28 to 1.48) | 0.20 (0.15 to 0.28) | 0.07 (0.03 to 0.14) | 0.22 (0.14 to 0.34) | 0.11 (0.06 to 0.19) | 0.14 (0.08 to 0.25) | |
| 14 | 6 | 5409 | 0.55 (0.50 to 0.62) | 1.37 (1.22 to 1.53) | 0.26 (0.16 to 0.42) | 0.23 (0.11 to 0.46) | 0.48 (0.29 to 0.79) | 0.13 (0.05 to 0.31) | 0.18 (0.07 to 0.43) | |
| 15 | 5 | 16 532 | 0.59 (0.55 to 0.63) | 1.31 (1.22 to 1.41) | 0.36 (0.28 to 0.47) | 0.28 (0.20 to 0.41) | 0.48 (0.36 to 0.65) | 0.35 (0.25 to 0.48) | 0.29 (0.19 to 0.44) | |
| 16 | 4 | 17 511 | 0.75 (0.71 to 0.80) | 1.05 (0.97 to 1.13) | 0.35 (0.27 to 0.45) | 0.25 (0.17 to 0.37) | 0.58 (0.44 to 0.77) | 0.31 (0.23 to 0.44) | 0.27 (0.18 to 0.41) | |
| 17 | 3 | 8711 | 0.86 (0.80 to 0.93) | 0.77 (0.96 to 0.86) | 0.60 (0.46 to 0.78) | 0.42 (0.27 to 0.63) | 0.59 (0.41 to 0.86) | 0.45 (0.30 to 0.66) | 0.55 (0.36 to 0.83) | |
| ≥18 | 2 | 4117 | 0.98 (0.89 to 1.08) | 0.80 (0.68 to 0.94) | 0.65 (0.45 to 0.93) | 0.88 (0.58 to 1.35) | 0.79 (0.50 to 1.25) | 0.75 (0.48 to 1.15) | 0.85 (0.52 to 1.37) | |
| ≥1991: 0 doses | 15678 | 0.89 (0.84 to 0.94) | 1.41 (1.31 to 1.52) | 0.84 (0.70 to 1.01) | 0.90 0.71 to 1.14) | 0.62 (0.47 to 0.82) | 0.81 (0.65 to 1.02) | 0.82 (0.63 to 1.07) | ||
| 1988-90: 0 doses | 48 348 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
CIN=cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.
Estimates derived from multinomial regression model adjusting also for deprivation and rurality. Estimated effects of these variables were similar to those in supplementary table 1 and are not repeated here.