Table 2.
Associations of baseline FPG, 2hPG, HbA1c, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus
| Variable | n | Incident diabetes (n) | Model 1a
OR (95% CI) |
Model 2b
OR (95% CI) |
Model 3c
OR (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPG (per SD increase, 0.5 mmol/l) | 2.7 (2.2, 3.3) | 2.5 (2.0, 3.1) | 2.1 (1.7, 2.7) | ||
| FPG Q1 (< 5.0 mmol/l) | 279 | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| FPG Q2 (5.0–5.3 mmol/l) | 289 | 17 | 1.6 (0.7, 3.6) | 1.4 (0.6, 3.1) | 1.4 (0.6, 3.2) |
| FPG Q3 (5.3–5.5 mmol/l) | 224 | 14 | 1.7 (0.7, 3.9) | 1.6 (0.7, 3.6) | 1.3 (0.6, 3.1) |
| FPG Q4 (5.5–5.9 mmol/l) | 314 | 32 | 2.8 (1.4, 5.9) | 2.4 (1.1, 5.1) | 1.9 (0.9, 4.1) |
| FPG Q5 (> 5.9 mmol/l) | 243 | 79 | 11.2 (5.6, 22.4) | 9.0 (4.4, 18.5) | 6.0 (2.8, 12.9) |
| 2hPG (per SD increase, 1.6 mmol/l) | 2.3 (1.9, 2.8) | 2.2 (1.8, 2.6) | 1.8 (1.5, 2.3) | ||
| 2hPG Q1 (< 4.1 mmol/l) | 267 | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 2hPG Q2 (4.1–4.9 mmol/l) | 277 | 12 | 1.2 (0.5, 2.8) | 1.1 (0.5, 2.6) | 1.0 (0.4, 2.4) |
| 2hPG Q3 (4.9–5.7 mmol/l) | 280 | 25 | 2.5 (1.2, 5.2) | 2.0 (0.9, 4.4) | 1.8 (0.8, 4.1) |
| 2hPG Q4 (5.7–6.6 mmol/l) | 250 | 32 | 3.7 (1.8, 7.7) | 3.1 (1.4, 6.5) | 2.3 (1.1, 5.1) |
| 2hPG Q5 (> 6.6 mmol/l) | 275 | 73 | 7.8 (3.9, 15.9) | 6.1 (2.9, 12.7) | 4.1 (1.9, 8.9) |
| HbA1c (per SD increase, 0.5% [5.5 mmol/mol]) | 1.7 (1.4, 2.1) | 1.6 (1.3, 1.9) | 1.3 (1.1, 1.6) | ||
| HbA1c Q1 (< 5.0%) | 272 | 15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| HbA1c Q2 (5.0–5.2%) | 207 | 24 | 2.1 (1.1, 4.1) | 2.1 (1.1, 4.3) | 1.8 (0.9, 3.8) |
| HbA1c Q3 (5.2–5.5%) | 385 | 25 | 1.1 (0.6, 2.0) | 1.0 (0.5, 2.0) | 0.8 (0.4, 1.7) |
| HbA1c Q4 (5.5–5.7%) | 199 | 20 | 1.7 (1.2, 2.4) | 1.5 (0.7, 3.1) | 1.2 (0.5, 2.5) |
| HbA1c Q5 (> 5.7%) | 285 | 68 | 4.4 (2.4, 8.0) | 3.8 (2.0, 7.2) | 2.7 (1.4, 5.2) |
| Loge fasting insulin (per SD increase, 0.4 pmol/l) | 1.3 (1.1, 1.6) | 1.1 (0.9, 1.3) | 1.0 (0.8, 1.2) | ||
| Insulin Q1 (< 56.4 pmol/l) | 265 | 17 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Insulin Q2 (56.4–68.1 pmol/l) | 264 | 25 | 1.5 (0.8, 3.1) | 1.4 (0.7, 2.9) | 1.5 (0.7, 3.4) |
| Insulin Q3 (68.1–81.1 pmol/l) | 267 | 26 | 1.6 (0.8, 3.3) | 1.5 (0.7, 3.0) | 1.3 (0.6, 2.9) |
| Insulin Q4 (81.1–100.5 pmol/l) | 266 | 35 | 2.2 (1.2, 4.2) | 1.6 (0.8, 3.1) | 1.3 (0.6, 2.6) |
| Insulin Q5 (> 100.5 pmol/l) | 265 | 49 | 3.0 (1.6, 5.5) | 1.9 (0.9, 3.6) | 1.3 (0.6, 2.6) |
| Loge HOMA-IR (per SD increase, 0.5) | 1.6 (1.3, 1.9) | 1.3 (1.1, 1.6) | 1.2 (1.0, 1.5) | ||
| HOMA-IR Q1 (< 2.1) | 271 | 13 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| HOMA-IR Q2 (2.1–2.7) | 269 | 22 | 1.6 (0.8, 3.4) | 1.4 (0.6, 2.9) | 1.4 (0.6, 3.2) |
| HOMA-IR Q3 (2.7–3.3) | 269 | 21 | 1.5 (0.7, 3.1) | 1.3 (0.6, 2.7) | 1.4 (0.6, 3.1) |
| HOMA-IR Q4 (3.3–4.1) | 270 | 38 | 2.8 (1.4, 5.7) | 2.1 (1.0, 4.3) | 2.2 (1.0, 4.8) |
| HOMA-IR Q5 (> 4.1) | 270 | 58 | 4.5 (2.3, 8.6) | 2.8 (1.4, 5.6) | 2.4 (1.2, 5.1) |
Diabetes defined by: FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l or 2hPG ≥ 11.1 mmol/l or HbA1c ≥ 6.5% (48 mmol/mol) or by known diabetes at follow-up
aModel 1 adjusted for age, sex and follow-up duration
bModel 2 additionally adjusted for BMI, LDL-cholesterol, loge triacylglycerol, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, family history of diabetes, physical activity, alcohol consumption and smoking
cModel 3 FPG additionally adjusted for 2hPG, HbA1c and fasting insulin; 2hPG additionally adjusted for FPG, HbA1c and fasting insulin; HbA1c additionally adjusted for FPG, 2hPG and fasting insulin; fasting insulin additionally adjusted for FPG, 2hPG and HbA1c; and HOMA-IR additionally adjusted for 2hPG and HbA1c