Table 1.
Demographic and clinical characteristics of the first COPD cohort (training and test datasets)
| Characteristic | Training set | Test set | Died | Not died | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % | |
| Total | 27,472 | 50.0 | 27,518 | 50.0 | 11,775 | 21.4 | 43,215 | 78.6 |
| Mean age, years (SD) | 69.9 (10.7) | 70.0 (10.6) | 76.6 (9.2) | 68.1 (10.3) | ||||
| Gender (males) | 14,869 | 54.1 | 12,603 | 45.9 | 4933 | 41.9 | 20,353 | 47.1 |
| IMD quartiles | ||||||||
| 1 (least deprived) | 5251 | 19.2 | 5254 | 19.1 | 2237 | 19.0 | 8268 | 19.1 |
| 2 | 6926 | 25.3 | 6910 | 25.2 | 3021 | 25.7 | 10,815 | 25.0 |
| 3 | 7314 | 26.7 | 7341 | 26.8 | 3176 | 27.0 | 11,479 | 26.6 |
| 4 | 7891 | 28.8 | 7937 | 28.9 | 3327 | 28.3 | 12,501 | 28.9 |
| Mean BMI, kg/m2 (SD) | 27.5 (6.2) | 27.5 (6.2) | 26.0 (6.3) | 28.0 (6.1) | ||||
| Mean FEV1, L (SD) | 1.59 (0.7) | 1.59 (0.7) | 1.27 (0.60) | 1.67 (0.69) | ||||
| GOLD stage | ||||||||
| 1 | 10,117 | 43.1 | 10,231 | 43.5 | 3205 | 27.2 | 17,143 | 39.7 |
| 2 | 7850 | 33.5 | 7883 | 33.5 | 2776 | 23.6 | 12,957 | 30.0 |
| 3 | 4459 | 19.0 | 4407 | 18.8 | 2545 | 21.6 | 6321 | 14.6 |
| 4 | 1031 | 4.4 | 987 | 4.2 | 886 | 7.5 | 1132 | 2.6 |
| MRC score | ||||||||
| 1 | 14,553 | 53.5 | 14,524 | 53.5 | 3793 | 32.2 | 25,284 | 58.5 |
| 2 | 7011 | 25.8 | 7025 | 25.9 | 3262 | 27.7 | 10,774 | 24.9 |
| 3 | 4497 | 16.5 | 4482 | 16.5 | 3185 | 27.0 | 5794 | 13.4 |
| 4 | 1144 | 4.2 | 1118 | 4.1 | 1349 | 11.5 | 913 | 2.1 |
| Smoking status | ||||||||
| Current | 16,006 | 58.2 | 15,829 | 57.6 | 7272 | 61.8 | 24,563 | 56.8 |
| Ex-smoker | 11,512 | 41.8 | 11,643 | 42.4 | 4503 | 38.2 | 18,652 | 43.2 |
| GP treated exacerbations | ||||||||
| 1–2 | 7885 | 28.7 | 7738 | 28.2 | 3483 | 29.6 | 12,140 | 28.1 |
| > 2 | 2230 | 8.1 | 2272 | 8.3 | 1291 | 11.0 | 3211 | 7.4 |
| Hospitalised exacerbations | ||||||||
| 1–2 | 1548 | 5.6 | 1609 | 5.9 | 1399 | 11.9 | 1758 | 4.1 |
| > 2 | 149 | 0.5 | 118 | 0.4 | 181 | 1.5 | 86 | 0.2 |
| Medications | ||||||||
| ICS | 19,252 | 70.0 | 18,932 | 68.9 | 8937 | 75.9 | 29,247 | 67.7 |
| LABA | 17,638 | 64.1 | 17,456 | 63.5 | 8330 | 70.7 | 26,764 | 61.9 |
| LAMA | 13,522 | 49.1 | 13,585 | 49.5 | 6636 | 56.4 | 20,471 | 47.4 |
| Influenza vaccination | 22,663 | 82.4 | 22,649 | 82.4 | 9984 | 84.8 | 35,328 | 81.7 |
| Pneumococcal vaccination | 2195 | 27.5 | 1983 | 25.5 | 1059 | 9.0 | 3119 | 7.2 |
| Comorbidities | ||||||||
| Myocardial infarction | 2310 | 8.4 | 2162 | 7.8 | 1501 | 12.8 | 2971 | 6.7 |
| Stroke | 1393 | 5.1 | 1387 | 5.1 | 947 | 8.0 | 1833 | 15.6 |
| Asthma | 13,442 | 48.9 | 13,198 | 48.0 | 5937 | 50.4 | 20,703 | 175.8 |
| Hypertension | 13,263 | 48.3 | 13,130 | 47.7 | 6550 | 55.6 | 19,843 | 168.5 |
| Atrial fibrillation (COTE) | 2157 | 7.9 | 2222 | 8.1 | 1176 | 10.0 | 2663 | 22.6 |
| Chronic kidney disease | 2403 | 8.7 | 2391 | 8.7 | 2805 | 23.8 | 1989 | 16.9 |
| Dementia | 428 | 1.6 | 418 | 1.5 | 424 | 3.6 | 422 | 3.6 |
| Anxiety (COTE) | 6689 | 24.3 | 6715 | 24.4 | 2729 | 23.2 | 10,675 | 90.7 |
| Depression | 7941 | 28.9 | 8027 | 29.2 | 3004 | 25.5 | 12,964 | 110.1 |
| Lung cancer (COTE) | 1109 | 4.0 | 1055 | 3.8 | 1282 | 10.9 | 882 | 7.5 |
| Cirrhosis (COTE) | 119 | 0.4 | 118 | 0.4 | 76 | 0.6 | 161 | 1.4 |
| Oesophageal cancer (COTE) | 41 | 0.1 | 35 | 0.1 | 41 | 0.3 | 35 | 0.3 |
| Diabetes | 4599 | 16.7 | 4742 | 17.2 | 2408 | 20.5 | 6933 | 58.9 |
| Pulmonary embolism | 642 | 2.3 | 680 | 2.5 | 374 | 3.2 | 948 | 8.1 |
| Heart failure (COTE) | 1825 | 6.6 | 1775 | 6.5 | 1566 | 13.3 | 2034 | 17.3 |
| Osteoporosis | 2421 | 8.8 | 2392 | 8.7 | 11,480 | 97.5 | 3333 | 28.3 |
| Coronary artery disease (COTE) | 5620 | 20.5 | 5469 | 19.9 | 3361 | 28.5 | 7728 | 65.6 |
| Pancreatic cancer (COTE) | 5 | 0.0 | 5 | 0.0 | < 5 | < 0.1 | 6 | 0.1 |
| Pulmonary fibrosis (COTE) | 183 | 0.7 | 177 | 0.6 | 144 | 1.2 | 216 | 1.8 |
| Breast cancer (COTE) | 425 | 1.5 | 443 | 1.6 | 213 | 1.8 | 655 | 5.6 |
| Gastric/duodenal ulcers (COTE) | 230 | 0.8 | 229 | 0.8 | 121 | 1.0 | 338 | 2.9 |
| Diabetes with neuropathy (COTE) | 3894 | 14.2 | 4021 | 14.6 | 2073 | 17.6 | 5842 | 49.6 |
| Blood tests | ||||||||
| CRP, mg/L mean (SD) | 13.5 (29.5) | 13.2 (29.6) | 19.4 (36.8) | 11.5 (24.5) | ||||
| Low albumin, g/L | 1185 | 4.3 | 1176 | 4.3 | 1039 | 8.8 | 1322 | 11.2 |
| Hb, g/dL mean (SD) | 138.5 (41.4) | 138.3 (37.5) | 133.7 (40.0) | 139.8 (39.2) | ||||
| Low platelets, × 109/L | 655 | 3.6 | 690 | 3.8 | 431 | 3.7 | 914 | 7.8 |
| High platelets, × 109/L | 1374 | 7.5 | 1368 | 7.5 | 783 | 6.6 | 1959 | 16.6 |
| Creatinine, μmol/L mean (SD) | 88.9 (37.7) | 88.2 (34.1) | 98.1 (48.5) | 85.7 (30.6) | ||||
| Bereavement | 1337 | 4.9 | 1354 | 4.9 | 611 | 5.2 | 2080 | 17.7 |
Hb haemoglobin. Comorbidities included in COTE are indicated