Table 2. Enrollment Decisions by Plan Star Rating, High Need, and Dual-Eligibility Statusa.
| High-Need Dual-Eligibility Status | Plan Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2.0-2.5 Stars | 3.0-3.5 Stars | 4.0-4.5 Stars | 5.0 Stars | |
| Non–high need, non–dual eligible | |||||
| No. of enrollees | 11 583 849 | 154 553 | 3 812 742 | 6 367 449 | 1 249 105 |
| Disenrolled to TM, % (95% CI) | 3.3 (3.3-3.3) | 25.4 (25.1-25.8) | 4.6 (4.9-5.0) | 2.4 (2.4-2.4) | 1.8 (1.8-1.9) |
| Same plan, % (95% CI) | 77.4 (77.3-77.4) | 65.9 (65.5-66.2) | 61.8 (61.7-61.9) | 84.2 (84.2-84.3) | 85.8 (85.6-85.9) |
| Different plan, % (95% CI) | 19.3 (19.3-19.3) | 8.7 (8.6-8.9) | 33.2 (33.2-33.3) | 13.4 (13.4-13.4) | 12.4 (12.3-12.6) |
| High-need, non–dual-eligible | |||||
| No. of enrollees | 722 443 | 8726 | 223 184 | 423 553 | 66 980 |
| Disenrolled to TM, % (95% CI) | 4.6 (4.5-4.6) | 23.0 (22.3-23.9) | 5.4 (5.3-5.4) | 3.5 (3.5-3.6) | 4.9 (4.6-5.2) |
| Same plan, % (95% CI) | 74.9 (74.8-74.9) | 69.4 (68.7-70.3) | 63.1 (62.9-63.3) | 82.4 (82.3-82.6) | 81.9 (81.3-82.6) |
| Different plan, % (95% CI) | 20.5 (20.4-20.6) | 7.5 (7.1-7.8) | 31.5 (31.3-31.7) | 14.1 (14.0-14.2) | 13.2 (12.6-13.8) |
| Non–high-need, dual-eligible | |||||
| No. of enrollees | 1 344 746 | 32 312 | 672 250 | 583 326 | 56 858 |
| Disenrolled to TM, % (95% CI) | 4.6 (4.5-4.7) | 28.0 (26.6-29.4) | 7.3 (7.1-7.5) | 3.3 (3.2-3.4) | 2.4 (2.1-2.7) |
| Same plan, % (95% CI) | 77.9 (77.8-78.1) | 65.7 (64.2-67.2) | 61.7 (61.4-62.1) | 84.3 (84.1-84.5) | 85.6 (84.8-86.3) |
| Different plan, % (95% CI) | 17.4 (17.2-17.6) | 6.3 (5.7-6.8) | 31.0 (30.7-31.3) | 12.4 (12.2-12.5) | 12.0 (11.3-12.7) |
| High-need, dual-eligible | |||||
| No. of enrollees | 250 778 | 6182 | 120 250 | 113 327 | 11 019 |
| Disenrolled to TM, % (95% CI) | 14.8 (14.5-15.0) | 42.8 (40.5-45.1) | 16.0 (15.6-16.3) | 12.9 (12.7-13.2) | 11.3 (10.2-12.5) |
| Same plan, % (95% CI) | 67.2 (66.9-67.5) | 51.8 (49.5-54.1) | 55.6 (55.1-56.1) | 74.4 (74.0-74.8) | 75.1 (73.3-76.9) |
| Different plan, % (95% CI) | 18.0 (17.8-18.3) | 5.4 (4.6-6.1) | 28.5 (28.0-28.9) | 12.7 (12.4-12.9) | 13.6 (12.0-15.1) |
Abbreviation: TM, traditional Medicare.
a
All percentages are adjusted marginal means from multinomial logit models adjusted for plan and patient characteristics and fully interacted with high-need status. We fit 2 models, one with non–dual eligibility only, and the other with dual-eligibility only. An unadjusted version is available in the eTable 2 in the Supplement.