Table 3.
Model performance in derivation, internal validation, and external validation cohorts for severe AKI within 72 hours after study enrollment in the population with enrollment serum creatinine ≤1.5 mg/dl
| Cohort | APACHE III c-Statistic (95% CI) | Reference SCr c-Statistic (95% CI) | LASSO c-Statistic (95% CI)a | ACT c-Statistic (95% CI)b | ACT versus APACHE III P Value | ACT versus Reference SCr P Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derivation | 0.55 (0.33 to 0.77) | 0.41 (0.21 to 0.60) | 0.81 (0.61 to 0.96) | 0.79 (0.57 to 0.95) | 0.18 | <0.001 |
| Internal validation | 0.54 (0.37 to 0.67) | 0.50 (0.19 to 0.81) | 0.78 (0.52 to 0.98) | 0.79 (0.51 to 0.98) | 0.11 | 0.002 |
| External validation | 0.52 (0.37 to 0.67) | 0.65 (0.55 to 0.74) | — | 0.97 (0.92 to 1.00) | <0.001 | <0.001 |
APACHE III, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; SCr, serum creatinine; LASSO, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator; ACT, age, cirrhosis, and sTNFR-1; —, not available; sTNFR-1, soluble TNR receptor-1.
LASSO model includes age, sex, white race, smoking, diabetes mellitus, CKD, cirrhosis, Angipoietin-2/angiopoietin-1, IL-8, IL-6, soluble FAS, sTNFR-1, and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule. CKD unavailable in the external validation cohort to calculate LASSO c-statistic.
ACT model includes age, cirrhosis, and sTNFR-1.