Fig. 4.
a Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves comparing main prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes. b Risk assessment plot for the GDRSadapted prediction model, without (dashed lines) and with (solid lines) protein-extension. Lines in the lower left part of the figure represent 1-specificity for all possible risk cut-offs for non-cases; lines in the upper right part represent sensitivity for type 2 diabetes cases. The grey area represents the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). c Risk assessment plot for the ‘Age + Sex + HbA1c’ prediction model, without (dashed lines) and with (solid lines) protein-extension. The non-case data was grossed up to represent the complete study cohort for the parts B and C of this figure in order to illustrate the relationship between risk of type 2 diabetes, sensitivity and specificity correctly. The ROC- and risk assessment plots were drawn using the complete study data without bootstrapping. Therefore, the AUC values displayed here deviate from the AUCbootstrap values given in the text. All basic, extended and DeltaAUC values computed based on the complete study data are supplied in the Supplemental Table 4