Table 2.
Prediction performance of selected proteins for incident type 2 diabetes, calculated using 10,000 bootstrap-samples, n = 783
| Basic prediction model | Selected proteins | Basic AUC (95% CI) | Extended AUC (95% CI) | Delta AUC (95% CI) | IDI overall (95% CI) | IDI cases (95% CI) | IDI controls (95% CI) | cfNRI overall (95% CI) | cfNRI cases (95% CI) | cfNRI controls (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDRSadapteda | MASP, adiponectin, apoE | 0.749 (0.687, 0.807) |
0.772 (0.712, 0.828) |
0.023 (–0.014, 0.051) |
0.031 (0.004, 0.059) |
0.026 (–0.004, 0.058) |
0.005 (–0.006, 0.015) |
0.393 (0.103, 0.680) |
0.119 (–0.179, 0.409) |
0.274 (0.114, 0.427) |
| Age + sex + HbA1c | MASP, adiponectin, apoE | 0.816 (0.759, 0.870) |
0.828 (0.773, 0.881) |
0.012 (–0.014, 0.031) |
0.030 (0.000, 0.059) |
0.025 (–0.007, 0.059) |
0.004 (–0.006, 0.014) |
0.400 (0.116, 0.682) |
0.126 (–0.163, 0.415) |
0.275 (0.108, 0.434) |
| GDRSadapted + HbA1cb | MASP, adiponectin, apoE, PZP | 0.823 (0.768, 0.875) |
0.828 (0.775 0.879) |
0.005 (–0.019, 0.024) |
0.025 (–0.006, 0.057) |
0.021 (–0.012, 0.057) |
0.003 (–0.006, 0.013) |
0.358 (0.050, 0.651) |
0.067 (–0.231, 0.364) |
0.291 (0.116, 0.460) |
Statistically significant results are printed in bold
AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: basic AUC without proteins, extended AUC with selected proteins, IDI integrated discrimination improvement of protein-extended versus basic model, cfNRI category-free net reclassification improvement of protein-extended versus basic model
aModel 3a: GDRSadapted prediction variables: age, sex, waist circumference, height, smoking, physical inactivity, actual hypertension, parental history of diabetes, sibling history of diabetes
bModel 3b: Model 3a variables plus HbA1c concentrations