Table 3.
Prediction performance of selected proteins for incident (pre)diabetes, calculated using 10,000 bootstrap-samples, n = 701
| Basic prediction model | Selected proteins | Basic AUC (95% CI) | Extended AUC (95% CI) | Delta AUC (95% CI) | IDI overall (95% CI) | IDI cases (95% CI) | IDI controls (95% CI) | cfNRI overall (95% CI) | cfNRI cases (95% CI) | cfNRI controls (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDRSadapteda | MASP | 0.723 (0.671, 0.773) |
0.725 (0.674, 0.775) |
0.002 (–0.017, 0.012) |
0.006 (–0.004, 0.014) |
0.004 (–0.007, 0.014) |
0.002 (–0.006, 0.009) |
0.097 (–0.145, 0.322) |
0.032 (–0.191, 0.250) |
0.065 (–0.097, 0.227) |
| Age + sex + HbA1c | MASP, CRP | 0.719 (0.669, 0.771) |
0.731 (0.681, 0.781) |
0.012 (− 0.022, 0.033) |
0.021 (0.005, 0.036) |
0.013 (− 0.004, 0.031) |
0.008 (− 0.006, 0.020) |
0.270 (0.051, 0.481) |
0.100 (− 0.111, 0.308) |
0.170 (0.012, 0.326) |
| GDRSadapted + HbA1cb | MASP | 0.754 (0.704, 0.802) |
0.757 (0.707, 0.805) |
0.003 (–0.014, 0.013) |
0.006 (–0.004, 0.016) |
0.004 (–0.008, 0.015) |
0.002 (–0.006, 0.010) |
0.122 (–0.116, 0.347) |
0.046 (–0.176, 0.263) |
0.076 (–0.090, 0.239) |
Statistically significant results are printed in bold
AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: basic AUC without proteins, extended AUC with selected protein (MASP), IDI integrated discrimination improvement of protein-extended versus basic model, cfNRI category-free net reclassification improvement of protein-extended versus basic model
aModel 3a: GDRSadapted prediction variables: age, sex, waist circumference, height, smoking, physical inactivity, actual hypertension, parental history of diabetes, sibling history of diabetes
bModel 3b: Model 3a variables plus HbA1c concentrations