Table 1.
Testing and treatment input changes made for each of the scenarios examining immediate (in 2015) incremental improvements to baseline and targeted interventions for a model of HIV transmission in South Africa
| Scenario | Targeted group | Rate of testing, treatment and prevention intervention availability | HIV testing interval | HIV test accept rate (%) | Linkage to care (%) | ART supp. at 6 mo. (%) | Monthly ART late fail prob. (%) | LTFU on ART (%) | CD4 threshold for treatment in 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| 30% improvement on baseline | Slow/medium/rapid | 8 months | 65 | 65 | 84 | 0.07 | 7 | All CD4 | |
| 50% improvement on baseline | N/A | Slow/medium/rapid | 6 months | 75 | 75 | 89 | 0.05 | 5 | All CD4 |
| 80% improvement on baseline | N/A | Slow/medium/rapid | 3 months | 90 | 90 | 96 | 0.02 | 2 | All CD4 |
| Age targeting | |||||||||
| 17–24 year olds 100% improvement |
17–24 year olds | 1 month | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | All CD4 | |
| 25–99 year olds | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| 17–24 year olds 50% improvement |
17–24 year olds | 6 months | 75 | 75 | 89 | 0.05 | 5 | All CD4 | |
| 25–99 year olds | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| 17–29 year olds 100% improvement |
17–29 year olds | 1 month | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | All CD4 | |
| 30–99 year olds | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| 30–59 year olds 100% improvement |
30–59 year olds | 1 month | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | All CD4 | |
| 17–29 and 60–99 year olds | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| Risk group targeting | |||||||||
| Low risk (LR) females 100% improvement |
LR females | 1 month | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | All CD4 | |
| Non-LR females | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| LR males 100% improvement |
LR males | 1 month | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | All CD4 | |
| Non-LR males | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| Commercial sex workers (CSW) 100% improvement |
CSW | 1 month | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | All CD4 | |
| Non-CSW | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| High risk (HR) females 100% improvement |
HR females | 1 month | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | All CD4 | |
| Non-HR females | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| HR females 50% improvement |
HR females | 6 months | 75 | 75 | 89 | 0.05 | 5 | All CD4 | |
| Non-HR females | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| HR males 100% improvement |
HR males | 1 month | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | All CD4 | |
| Non-HR males | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl | |
| HR males 50% improvement |
HR males | 6 months | 75 | 75 | 89 | 0.05 | 5 | All CD4 | |
| Non-HR males | Slow | 1 year | 50 | 47 | 78 | 0.1 | 9.9 | <500/μl |
ART, antiretroviral therapy; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; LTFU, loss to follow-up; Prob., probability; Supp., viral suppression; LR, low risk; HR, high risk.