Table 2.
Results for scenarios examining impact on 90-90-90 targets and epidemiologic outcomes of incremental changes to baseline testing and treatment cascades and targeted scenarios on specific demographic and at-risk groups
| Scenario | % Infections averted (2015 to 2030) compared to baseline | % Life months gained (2015 to 2030) compared to baseline | % Deaths averted (2015 to 2030) compared to baseline | HIV prevalence among 17+ in 2030 (%) | Annual HIV incidence in 2030 among 17+ (cases per 100 P-Y) | Total % of HIV + supp. in 2020 | Total % of HIV + supp. in 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | N/A | N/A | N/A | 33.2 (30.2, 37.1) | 2.70 (2.36, 3.21) | 44.4 (43.8, 45.0) | 47.2 (46.8, 47.6) |
| 30% improvement on baseline | |||||||
| Slow rollout | 21.2 (19.9, 22.6) | 0.6 (0.5, 0.7) | 3.5 (3.1, 3.8) | 29.1 (26.5, 32.4) | 1.73 (1.54, 1.96) | 60.5 (54.5, 62.7) | 66.1 (65.5, 66.7) |
| Medium rollout | 24.8 (23.5, 26.0) | 1.1 (1.0, 1.2) | 4.7 (4.5, 5.0) | 28.9 (26.4, 31.8) | 1.74 (1.51, 1.96) | 63.6 (62.9, 64.3) | 66.2 (65.6, 66.7) |
| Rapid rollout | 25.9 (24.3, 27.6) | 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) | 5.1 (4.7, 5.6) | 28.8 (26.4, 31.6) | 1.72 (1.51, 1.94) | 64.2 (63.7, 64.6) | 66.1 (65.6, 66.7) |
| 50% improvement on baseline | |||||||
| Slow rollout | 28.2 (26.1, 30.1) | 0.8 (0.6, 0.9) | 4.7 (4.1, 4.9) | 27.7 (25.3, 31.1) | 1.37 (1.22, 1.54) | 62.2 (55.7, 67.8) | 73.8 (73.2, 74.4) |
| Medium rollout | 34.4 (32.9, 35.8) | 1.4 (1.3, 1.6) | 6.5 (6.1, 6.8) | 27.2 (25.0, 30.0) | 1.36 (1.21, 1.53) | 71.1 (70.3, 71.9) | 73.9 (73.4, 74.5) |
| Rapid rollout | 37.2 (35.0, 39.3) | 1.8 (1.6, 2.1) | 7.3 (6.7, 8.0) | 27.0 (24.9, 29.6) | 1.37 (1.21, 1.53) | 72.4 (72.0, 72.9) | 73.9 (73.4, 74.4) |
| 80% improvement on baseline | |||||||
| Slow rollout | 37.3 (32.7, 40.4) | 1.0 (0.7, 1.1) | 5.7 (4.9, 6.1) | 26.1 (23.6, 29.8) | 0.83 (0.73, 0.96) | 63.7 (57.3, 69.4) | 85.8 (85.0, 86.7) |
| Medium rollout | 49.0 (47.3, 50.6) | 1.9 (1.7, 2.0) | 8.4 (8.0, 8.9) | 24.6 (22.4, 27.0) | 0.80 (0.71, 0.91) | 82.6 (81.6, 83.5) | 86.4 (85.9, 86.9) |
| Rapid rollout | 55.7 (53.2, 57.9) | 2.5 (2.2, 2.8) | 10.0 (9.3, 10.9) | 23.8 (22.0, 25.9) | 0.81 (0.72, 0.89) | 85.6 (85.2, 85.9) | 86.4 (86.0, 86.9) |
| Age targeting | |||||||
| 17–24 year olds 100% improvement |
59.6 (57.9, 61.6) | 0.9 (0.8, 1.0) | 5.1 (4.8, 5.4) | 20.2 (18.3, 22.2) | 0.52 (0.44, 0.61) | 68.5 (66.8, 70.1) | 76.7 (75.1, 78.1) |
| 17–24 year olds 50% improvement |
36.5 (34.6, 38.4) | 0.7 (0.6, 0.8) | 4.0 (3.8, 4.3) | 25.5 (23.5, 27.9) | 1.33 (1.20, 1.48) | 62.6 (61.4, 63.9) | 69.2 (68.4, 69.9) |
| 17–29 year olds 100% improvement |
68.1 (65.8, 69.8) | 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) | 6.6 (6.2, 7.1) | 19.0 (17.3, 20.8) | 0.37 (0.31, 0.45) | 76.2 (74.7, 77.5) | 83.4 (82.2, 84.5) |
| 30–59 year olds 100% improvement |
17.3 (15.3, 19.6) | 1.3 (1.1, 1.6) | 5.0 (4.2, 5.8) | 30.9 (28.2, 34.3) | 2.03 (1.79, 2.36) | 69.2 (68.0, 70.4) | 73.3 (72.3, 74.3) |
| Risk group targeting | |||||||
| Low risk (LR) females 100% improvement |
12.2 (10.0, 14.7) | 1.1 (0.9, 1.3) | 4.6 (3.8, 5.3) | 32.0 (29.3, 35.5) | 2.36 (2.06, 2.75) | 65.7 (63.4, 68.9) | 62.0 (60.5, 63.8) |
| LR males – 100% improvement | 9.5 (6.0, 13.9) | 0.7 (0.5, 1.0) | 3.1 (2.3, 4.3) | 31.9 (29.3, 35.0) | 2.40 (2.11, 2.74) | 59.6 (56.7, 62.9) | 59.3 (57.1, 61.4) |
| Commercial sex workers (CSW) 100% improvement |
0.5 (−0.1, 1.0) | 0.04 (0.02, 0.1) | 0.2 (0.1, 0.3) | 32.9 (30.1, 37.0) | 2.66 (2.31, 3.18) | 45.5 (44.8, 46.3) | 48.4 (47.8, 49.0) |
| High risk (HR) females 100% improvement |
8.3 (6.4, 10.0) | 0.4 (0.3, 0.6) | 2.0 (1.3, 2.7) | 31.8 (28.8, 35.5) | 2.39 (2.05, 2.83) | 54.5 (50.3, 57.6) | 58.0 (53.5, 61.3) |
| HR females 50% improvement |
4.5 (3.3, 5.7) | 0.3 (0.2, 0.4) | 1.4 (0.8, 1.9) | 32.4 (29.5, 36.4) | 2.55 (2.17, 3.03) | 50.3 (47.9, 52.6) | 53.3 (50.8, 55.1) |
| HR males 100% improvement |
50.2 (45.0, 54.0) | 0.7 (0.6, 0.9) | 4.0 (3.4, 4.6) | 21.7 (19.8, 25.2) | 0.95 (0.80, 1.22) | 59.6 (55.6, 63.3) | 65.0 (61.2, 68.8) |
| HR males 50% improvement |
26.4 (23.6, 28.3) | 0.5 (0.4, 0.6) | 2.5 (2.1, 3.0) | 27.3 (24.9, 30.7) | 1.77 (1.54, 2.13) | 53.6 (50.9, 55.9) | 56.2 (54.0, 58.2) |
HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; Supp., viral suppression; HR, high risk; LR, low risk; P-Y, person-years.
On average, the sexually active population accounts for 61% of the total population size in 2020 and 62% in 2030 across scenarios. HIV prevalence among those sexually active (17+ years of age) at the start of 2015 for all runs is 26.0% (23.9, 28.8). Annual HIV incidence among those sexually active at the start of 2015 for all runs is 2.54 (2.19, 3.01) cases per 100 P-Y. Numbers represent the weighted median and IQR, in parentheses, for each quantity.