Fig. 4.

Efficacy of single warning signals in predicting the recovery of cod populations. a Metric with the greatest difference between the signal strength in the non-collapse and collapse time series, the greatest mean strength across all rates of decline, and the highest mean signal strength in any single rate of change (AR(1) + CV + SD size) of EWSR between the start of the decline in fishing pressure (2040) and the recovery time of each time series. Error bars show 1 SE. b Metric with the greatest difference between the proportion of time series showing false positive signals at a 2 sigma threshold (orange bars) and proportion of time series showing true positive signals (blue bars) – AR(1) + SD size. c Distribution in time of EWSR at a 2 sigma threshold for the metric AR(1) + SD size