TABLE 3.
1985 to 2010 | 1988 to 2010 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Modern | Traditional | Festival | Monotonous | Spices | No pattern | Winter | Summer | |
Year (Reference = 2000) | ||||||||
1985 | −21.7%*** | 11.3%*** | 16.2%*** | −18.7%*** | 1.6% | 9.0%*** | ||
1988 | −20.0%*** | 19.7%*** | 19.5%*** | −21.4%*** | −3.5%** | 6.8%*** | −3.7%** | −2.8% |
1991 | −18.4%*** | 19.1%*** | 10.2%*** | −16.7%*** | −4.6%*** | 3.6%** | −0.1% | 4.8%*** |
1995 | −19.1%*** | 0.8% | 14.8%*** | −8.0%*** | −3.5%** | 4.3%** | 2.1% | 2.8%* |
2005 | 8.3%*** | −1.8% | −0.6% | −6.6%*** | 3.7%*** | −0.6% | 1.2% | 3.6%** |
2010 | 29.2%*** | −5.0%*** | 3.7%*** | −5.7%*** | 2.8%* | −6.6%*** | 3.0%* | −1.1% |
Locality (Reference = rural) | ||||||||
Municipality | 5.7%*** | −1.7%* | −2.5%*** | −9.6%*** | −5.3%*** | 3.7%*** | 0.1% | 1.8% |
Metropolitan area | 7.9%*** | 2.3% | −5.7%*** | −11.8%*** | −6.0%*** | 0.5% | 2.6% | 3.1%* |
Division (Reference = Dhaka) | ||||||||
Barisal | −0.6% | 6.1%*** | 1.5% | −6.0%*** | −12.8%*** | 1.6% | −2.6% | −4.6%* |
Chittagong | 5.9%*** | 4.0%** | 0.9% | 6.3%*** | −9.9%*** | −7.9%*** | 8.9%*** | 2.8%* |
Khulna | −2.5%* | −11.6%*** | 1.6% | 5.3%** | 11.6%*** | −2.2% | 1.8% | −3.6% |
Rajshahi | 0.1% | −12.6%*** | 0.5% | −5.0%*** | 13.0%*** | 0.4% | −4.4%** | 0.4% |
Rangpur | −6.7%*** | −18.9%*** | 1.9% | 3.8%* | 7.3%*** | −4.4%** | 6.7%*** | 0.6% |
Sylhet | 7.0%*** | 21.4%*** | −1.2% | 1.0% | −0.8% | −13.3%*** | 4.4% | −2.5% |
Household structure | ||||||||
Members | −0.7%*** | −2.5%*** | −0.5%*** | −1.1%*** | −1.7%*** | 2.2%*** | −0.6%*** | −0.5%*** |
No children <10 y | −3.8%*** | −5.3%*** | −8.6%*** | −2.3%*** | −3.0%*** | 8.3%*** | −2.8%*** | −2.8%*** |
No homemaker | −2.6%*** | 1.6%* | −1.4%* | 1.5% | −0.6% | −0.5% | 2.3%*** | −1.3% |
Nuclear family | −1.1%** | −0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | −0.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | −0.1% |
No adult men | 3.7%*** | 7.0%*** | 0.7% | 4.1%*** | 6.1%*** | −1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
No adult women | −2.3%** | −0.1% | −3.1% | −2.6% | 1.3% | 6.4%** | 1.1% | 2.9%* |
Head age (decade) | −0.2%** | −1.0%*** | −0.2% | −0.2% | −0.5%*** | 1.0%*** | −0.4%** | −0.4%** |
Education of household head (Reference = None/primary) | ||||||||
Secondary | 0.4% | −1.6%** | 2.9%*** | −0.1% | −1.9%** | 1.1% | −0.8% | −0.5% |
Certificate | −0.4% | −0.4% | 3.7%** | 0.3% | −0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | −1.4% |
University | −1.4% | −0.3% | 6.1%*** | 3.4%* | −0.8% | 0.5% | −3.6%** | 0.0% |
Mean level of adult education | ||||||||
Adult women | 5.3%*** | −2.8%*** | 1.2%** | −3.4%*** | −0.2% | 0.5% | −1.4%** | 1.0%* |
Adult men | 1.2%** | −1.0%* | −0.3% | −2.9%*** | −0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Utilities | ||||||||
Electricity | 5.6%*** | −3.2%*** | 0.5% | −4.3%*** | −1.3%* | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Natural gas | 7.8%*** | −4.9%*** | −2.5%* | −3.4%*** | −3.4%*** | 0.1% | −4.0%** | −2.3%* |
Piped water | 6.1%*** | −1.5% | −3.8%*** | −3.9%*** | −3.7%*** | 1.2% | −2.3% | −4.1%** |
Religion (Reference = Muslim) | ||||||||
Hindu | 0.8% | 0.5% | ||||||
Other | 7.0%** | 1.7% | ||||||
Season of survey (Reference = January to April) | ||||||||
May to Aug | −44.2%*** | 39.0%*** | ||||||
Sep to Dec | −39.1%*** | −7.1%*** | ||||||
Holiday | −6.2%*** | 2.1%** | ||||||
Household per capita expenditure | ||||||||
Above food poverty | −7.9%*** | 4.5%*** | −3.4%*** | 7.0%*** | 5.8%*** | −17.4%*** | 3.2%*** | 3.3%*** |
Log of expenditure | 22.6%*** | 17.5%*** | 36.9%*** | 5.2%*** | 8.5%*** | −26.0%*** | 8.5%*** | 10.6%*** |
Household agricultural production (Reference = producing) | ||||||||
No milk | 1.3%*** | 1.4%** | −4.9%*** | −0.4% | −2.9%*** | 0.2% | 1.1% | −2.9%*** |
No eggs | 0.7%* | 0.0% | −0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | −0.5% | 0.6% | 1.7%*** |
No field crops | 1.2% | −1.2% | 1.3% | −0.9% | −2.2% | 1.4% | −0.9% | −1.9% |
No starches | 4.2%*** | 1.2% | −1.8% | −2.8%** | −1.3% | −0.4% | 0.3% | −0.2% |
No vegetables/lentils | −0.3% | 2.4%** | −0.5% | −1.9%* | 0.8% | −1.8%* | 1.3% | −0.1% |
No oilseeds | 3.2%*** | 0.5% | −2.5%** | −1.5% | −4.5%*** | 1.2% | −0.8% | 0.9% |
No spices | 1.2%** | −2.6%*** | −1.7%* | −0.4% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
No jute | −0.5% | 0.8% | 1.9%* | −3.6%*** | −1.6% | −0.6% | −0.8% | 1.1% |
Household agricultural production diversity (Reference = no production/no diversity) | ||||||||
Some diversity | 1.7%** | 1.0% | 1.7% | −1.4% | −1.6% | −0.8% | 1.8%* | 0.3% |
High diversity | 2.5%*** | 1.4% | −0.3% | −2.9%** | 0.9% | −1.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
Household consumption of agricultural production (Reference = no production/no consumption) | ||||||||
Some consumption | 2.9%*** | 0.6% | −0.3% | −0.3% | −1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | −0.8% |
High consumption | 3.2%*** | −0.7% | 0.0% | −2.5%*** | −3.3%*** | 2.7%*** | −1.6%* | −1.3% |
Regional agricultural production per capita | ||||||||
Starches (100 g) | −0.5%*** | 0.3%** | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7%*** | −0.2% | 0.8%*** | 1.0%*** |
Lentils (10 g) | −0.1% | −1.0%** | 0.3% | −0.5% | 2.1%*** | 0.3% | −0.7% | −0.1% |
Vegetables (10 g) | −0.7%*** | −0.9%*** | −0.5%** | 0.3% | 0.9%*** | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
DGLV (10 g) | 19.3%*** | 6.7% | 9.8%* | 5.4% | −9.0% | −8.4% | −4.2% | −4.5% |
Fruits (10 g) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0%* | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Oilseeds (10 g) | 0.4% | −1.1% | 2.0%** | −2.0%** | 0.5% | 0.0% | −3.1%*** | −1.4% |
Sugars (10 g) | 0.0% | −0.1%*** | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2%*** | 0.0% |
Spices (10 g) | −0.8% | 2.6%*** | −1.3%** | 3.6%*** | −2.7%*** | −0.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
Non-food (10 g) | 0.4%*** | −0.2% | 0.0% | −0.3% | 0.6%*** | 0.1% | −0.3% | 0.1% |
Diversity index | 0.2%*** | 0.0% | 0.0% | −0.2%*** | 0.2%*** | −0.2%*** | 0.1% | 0.2%*** |
Constant | −40.8%*** | 3.6% | −55.5%*** | 48.9%*** | 1.4% | 88.3%*** | 26.2%*** | −29.3%*** |
n | 51,804 | 51,804 | 51,804 | 51,804 | 51,804 | 51,804 | 48,005 | 48,005 |
Model fit (AUC) | 0.92 | 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.73 | 0.79 | 0.78 | 0.87 | 0.87 |
*** P < 0.01, **P < 0.05, *P < 0.1. DGLV, dark green leafy vegetables.