Table 1.
Yields and production of single- and double-rice systems in China and total national production under four scenarios projected to 2030
| Scenarios | Rice system | Yield (t ha−1 season−1) | Production (MMT) | Total production (MMT) | Total production compared with demand of 217 MMT in 2030 (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Single-rice | 7.4 | 135.4 | 206 | −11 |
| Double-rice | 5.9 | 71.0 | |||
| S2, 80% Yp ceiling | Single-rice | 8.3 | 150.5 | 224 | 7 |
| Double-rice | 6.1 | 73.6 | |||
| S3, 75% Yp ceiling | Single-rice | 7.8 | 141.2 | 215 | −2 |
| Double-rice | 6.1 | 73.6 | |||
| S4, 75% Yp ceiling | Single-rice | 7.8 | 141.2 | 219 | 2 |
| Double-rice | 6.5 | 77.9 |
S1: Farm yields stagnate at current levels to 2030. S2 and S3: Rates of yield gain follow current trajectories based on regression of national rice yields versus year since 1985 to present for single- and double-rice to 2030 (Supplementary Fig. 6) and an exploitable yield ceiling that is 80% (S2) or 75% (S3) of potential yield (Yp). S4: Rates of yield gain in double-rice increase to the current yield growth rate of single-rice (an increase from 0.03 to 0.05 t ha−1 per year per season) and an exploitable yield ceiling that is 75% of Yp. In all four scenarios, there is no change in rice production area for each rice system, which is consistent with recent land use trends as explained in the text. Source data are provided as a Source Data file