Table 1.

Test characteristics of algorithms when applied to men with matched data in Michigan Medicare claims and MUSIC clinical registry. Bolded algorithms were selected to describe active surveillance trends in a national Medicare sample.

Algorithm	Description	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV
1	No treatment within 12 months of diagnosis	88.24	93.48	73.77	97.45
2	No treatment and 1 PSA within 12 months of diagnosis	84.31	93.69	73.50	96.64
3	No treatment and comorbidity score < 3	83.82	94.09	74.67	96.55
4	No treatment and comorbidity score < 2	77.45	94.60	74.88	95.28
5	No treatment and age < 75	65.20	96.33	78.70	93.02
6	No treatment within 12 months, comorbidity score < 3, and age < 75	62.25	96.54	78.88	92.49
7	No treatment, age < 75, and 1 PSA within 12 months of diagnosis	61.76	96.44	78.26	92.39
8	No treatment and ≥1 prostate biopsy between 1 and 12 months after diagnosis	23.53	99.08	84.21	86.18