Table 2.
Level and trend changes in predicted probabilitiesa of ART initiation within 30 days of enrolment and six‐month retention in care before and after implementation of Treat All in 10 health centres in Rwanda
| Pre‐Treat All period (July 2014 to May 2016) | Treat All period (August 2016 to September 2017) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baselineb (%) (95% CI) | Pre‐Treat All Trendc (Δ%) (95% CI) | Treat All Changed (%) (95% CI) | Treat All Trende (Δ%) (95% CI) | |
| ART initiation within 30 days | ||||
| Overall | 47.1 (38.2, 56.1) | 0.0 (−0.6, 0.6) | 31.3 (15.5, 47.2) | 1.1 (0.1, 2.1) |
| Sex | ||||
| Men | 41.1 (31.6, 50.5) | 0.1 (−0.7, 1.0) | 35.0 (13.6, 56.4) | 0.7 (−0.5, 1.9) |
| Women | 51.0 (40.8, 61.2) | −0.1 (−0.7, 0.5) | 28.5 (14.4, 42.5) | 1.4 (0.2, 2.5) |
| Age group | ||||
| 15 to 24 years | 47.5 (35.5, 59.4) | 0.1 (−0.1, 1.0) | 24.0 (2.0, 46.0) | 1.4 (0.0, 2.8) |
| >24 years | 46.8 (37.8, 55.7) | 0.0 (−0.6, 0.6) | 33.5 (18.5, 48.5) | 0.9 (−0.4, 2.3) |
| Referral source | ||||
| VCT | 38.8 (27.9, 49.7) | 0.0 (−0.5, 0.8) | 32.9 (13.8, 51.9) | 1.2 (−0.1, 2.6) |
| Maternal/prenatal | 69.3 (62.2, 76.5) | 0.5 (−0.1, 1.1) | 6.0 (−14.5, 26.5) | 0.0 (−0.7, 0.7) |
| Other | 49.9 (39.0, 60.7) | 0.4 (−0.4, 1.2) | 29.4 (10.5, 48.3) | −0.7 (−2.2, 0.8) |
| Baseline CD4 count | ||||
| >500 cells/μL | 35.9 (28.6, 43.1) | −0.2 (−0.8, 0.4) | 52.2 (36.2, 68.3) | 1.1 (−0.1, 2.3) |
| 350 to 500 cells/μL | 50.7 (35.5, 65.8) | 0.5 (0.0, 0.9) | 19.4 (5.1, 33.7) | 1.0 (−0.3, 2.3) |
| 200 to 349 cells/μL | 63.3 (46.7, 80.0) | −0.5 (−1.6, 0.6) | 26.7 (−0.3, 53.6) | 2.4 (0.3, 4.5) |
| <200 cells/μL | 53.6 (37.1, 70.1) | 0.5 (−0.7, 1.7) | 19.2 (−4.7, 43.1) | −0.8 (−2.8, 1.2) |
| Missing | 35.3 (28.2, 42.4) | 0.0 (−0.1, 1.0) | 32.4 (13.0, 51.9) | 1.2 (−0.6, 3.0) |
| Six‐month retention in care | ||||
| Overall | 83.7 (78.7, 88.8) | 0.1 (−0.1, 0.4) | −4.5 (−18.9, 9.9) | 1.8 (−1.5, 5.0) |
| Sex | ||||
| Men | 87.6 (82.6, 92.6) | −0.3 (−0.6, 0.1) | 4.3 (−12.5, 21.1) | 1.4 (−2.6, 5.5) |
| Women | 81.4 (75.1, 87.7) | 0.4 (0.1, 0.7) | −10.8 (−24.8, 3.2) | 2.3 (−0.4, 5.0) |
| Age group | ||||
| 15 to 24 years | 80.5 (73.6, 87.3) | 0.1 (−0.5, 0.7) | −17.3 (−38.3, 3.7) | 6.8 (2.7, 10.8) |
| >24 years | 84.3 (79.2, 89.3) | 0.1 (−0.1, 0.4) | −2.5 (−16.7, 11.7) | 1.0 (−2.3, 4.3) |
| Referral source | ||||
| VCT | 87.1 (81.8, 92.4) | 0.0 (−0.4, 0.3) | −4.4 (−22.5, 13.7) | 2.1 (−1.8, 5.9) |
| Maternal/prenatal | 81.8 (74.5, 89.1) | 0.2 (−0.2, 0.7) | −6.5 (−31.2, 18.3) | 1.0 (−4.4, 6.5) |
| Other | 72.8 (65.9, 79.7) | 0.8 (0.5, 1.2) | −16.3 (−34.0, 1.2) | 2.9 (−0.1, 6.0) |
| Baseline CD4 count | ||||
| >500 cells/μL | 85.7 (79.4, 91.9) | −0.1 (−0.5, 0.4) | 0.4 (−14.6, 15.4) | 1.5 (−1.5, 4.5) |
| 350 to 500 cells/μL | 89.5 (79.5, 99.4) | −0.2 (−0.8, 0.4) | −13.2 (−39.4, 13.0) | 4.7 (−1.2, 10.7) |
| 200 to 349 cells/μL | 92.3 (87.5, 97.1) | 0.1 (−0.3, 0.4) | 5.1 (1.3, 8.8) | −0.2 (−0.7, 0.2) |
| <200 cells/μL | 84.3 (73.5, 95.1) | 0.1 (−0.6, 0.9) | −7.2 (−21.6, 7.2) | 3.3 (1.0, 5.7) |
| Missing | 54.2 (38.3, 70.0) | 1.1 (−0.1, 2.2) | 0.4 (−18.9, 19.6) | −0.8 (−9.0, 7.5) |
ART, antiretroviral therapy; VCT, voluntary counselling and testing.
aProbabilities modelled using segmented linear regression models: predicted probability = Baseline + β 1 ×Pre‐Treat All Trend + β 2 ×Treat All Change + β 3 ×Treat All Trend; brefers to the predicted probability of outcome at the beginning of the study period, β 0 ; crefers to the modelled change in predicted probability of outcome per month during the pre‐Treat All period, β 1; drefers to the modelled change in predicted probability of outcome immediately after implementation of Treat All compared to immediately before implementation, β 2; eRefers to the modelled difference in trend in predicted probability relative to the pre‐Treat All period, β 3.