TABLE 12.
Net Reclassification Improvement Analysis Comparing Progression Probability Categories Among Progressors and Non-Progressors to Advanced Stages of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Over 5 Years for a Composite Risk Model with No Genes Versus a Composite Risk Model with Genes in the Validation Cohort.
| Probability of Progression Based on the Composite risk model with genesc |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of Progression |
Very low | Low | Medium | High | Very high | Total | |
|
Progressors |
|||||||
| Probability of Progression Based on the Composite risk model with no genesb | Very low | 6 (100.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 6 (1.9) |
| Low | 0 (0.0) | 54 (91.5) | 5 (8.5) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 59 (18.7) | |
| Medium | 0 (0.0) | 19 (8.1) | 149 (63.4) | 56 (23.8) | 11 (4.7) | 235 (74.4) | |
| High | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 2 (12.5) | 8 (50.0) | 6 (37.5) | 16 (5.1) | |
| Very high | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | |
| Total | 6 (1.9) | 73 (23.1) | 156 (49.4) | 64 (20.3) | 17 (5.4) | 316 (100.0) | |
|
Non-Progressors |
|||||||
| Probability of Progression Based on the Composite risk model with no genesb | Very low | 1495 (96.0) | 62 (4.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 1557 (52.0) |
| Low | 55 (8.0) | 628 (91.3) | 5 (0.7) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 688 (23.0) | |
| Medium | 0 (0.0) | 111 (15.9) | 491 (70.3) | 91 (13.0) | 5 (0.7) | 698 (23.3) | |
| High | 0 (0.0) | 4 (9.3) | 12 (27.9) | 25 (58.1) | 2 (4.7) | 43 (1.4) | |
| Very high | 0 (0.0) | 2 (22.2) | 6 (66.7) | 1 (11.1) | 0 (0.0) | 9 (0.3) | |
| Total | 1550 (51.8) | 807 (26.9) | 514 (17.2) | 117 (3.9) | 7 (0.2) | 2995 (100.0) | |
Age-related macular degeneration, AMD; NRI, Net reclassification improvement.
NRI for progressors: .18; P < .0001
NRI for non-progressors: .009; P = 0.17
Overall NRI: .19; P < .0001
Probability of progression was defined as 1) very low (< 1% risk); 2) low (1% to < 10% risk); 3) medium (10% to < 30% risk); 4) high (30% to < 50% risk); 5) very high (≥ 50% risk).
Composite risk model including age, sex, race, education, BMI, smoking status, and baseline AMD grade.
Composite risk model including includes age, sex, race, education, BMI, smoking status, baseline AMD grade, and 13 loci determined to be associated with progression to advanced stages of AMD.