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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Feb 1.
Published in final edited form as: Am J Ophthalmol. 2018 Oct 31;198:223–261. doi: 10.1016/j.ajo.2018.10.022

TABLE 15.

Calibration of Risk Model for Progression to Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration. a

Risk
(decile)		 n Observed
# events		 Expected
# events
1 113 14.83 7.72
2 115 11.61 12.58
3 114 17.09 16.23
4 115 27.12 18.95
5 115 14.5 22.04
6 114 30.49 25.24
7 114 20.12 29.52
8 116 40.55 35.03
9 114 44.67 40.54
10 114 45.98 55.36
total 1144 266.98 263.21

Ratio (expected/observed) = 0.986 (95% CI 0.87, 1.11); Chi-square = 0.054; P value= 0.816 (indicating adequate calibration of the model).

a

Data was based on progression over 5 years comparing observed and expected number of eyes progressing in the validation dataset according to deciles of the risk score from the derivation sample among eyes with baseline intermediate AMD.