TABLE 16.
Cumulative Incidence of Progression to Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration at 2, 5, 10, and 12 Years Based on the Composite Risk Score, Adjusting for Mortality Risks for a Representative Sample of 24 Right and Left Eyes with Intermediate Stage Disease at Baseline.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eye | OD | OD | OD | OD | OD | OD | OD | OD | OD | OD | OD | OD |
| Age | 65-74 | ≥ 75 | ≥ 75 | ≥ 75 | < 65 | ≥ 75 | ≥ 75 | ≥ 75 | 65-74 | 65-74 | 65-74 | 65-74 |
| Sex | F | M | M | M | F | F | F | F | M | F | F | F |
| Education | > HS | ≤ HS | ≤ HS | > HS | ≤ HS | ≤ HS | ≤ HS | ≤ HS | ≤ HS | ≤ HS | ≤ HS | > HS |
| Body mass index | 25-29 | ≥ 30 | 25-29 | < 25 | ≥ 30 | 25-29 | < 25 | 25-29 | ≥ 30 | ≥ 30 | ≥ 30 | < 25 |
| Smoking | Never | Never | Past | Past | Never | Never | Never | Never | Past | Past | Never | Current |
| Complement pathway | ||||||||||||
| CFH Y402H: rs1061170 | TT | CT | CC | CC | TT | CT | CT | CT | TT | CC | CC | TT |
| CFH: rs1410996 | TT | CT | CC | CC | CT | CT | CT | CC | CT | CC | CC | CT |
| CFH R1210C: rs121913059 | CC | CC | CC | CC | CT | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC |
| C2 E318D: rs9332739 | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG |
| CFB R32Q: rs641153 | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CT | CC | CC | CC |
| C3 R102G: rs2230199 | CG | CG | CC | CC | CC | CG | GG | CC | CC | CC | CC | CG |
| C3 K155Q: rs147859257 | TT | GT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT |
| Immune/inflammatory pathway | ||||||||||||
| ARMS2/HTRA1: rs10490924 | GT | GT | GG | TT | GT | GG | GT | GT | GT | GT | GT | GT |
| PELI3: rs145732233 | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CT | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC |
| Extracellular matrix | ||||||||||||
| COL8A1: rs13095226 | TT | CT | TT | CT | TT | TT | TT | TT | CT | TT | TT | CT |
| CTRB1: rs8056814 | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG |
| DNA repair/protein binding | ||||||||||||
| RAD51B: rs8017304 | GA | GA | AA | AA | AA | AA | AA | GG | GA | AA | GG | AA |
| HSPH1/B3GALTL: rs9542236 | CT | CT | CT | CT | TT | TT | CT | CT | CT | CT | TT | CT |
| 2 year cumulative incidence, % | 4.2 | 27.1 | 14.1 | 20.6 | 21.6 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 19.4 | 10.2 | 15 |
| 5 year cumulative incidence, % | 10.6 | 52.1 | 30.4 | 40.8 | 47.8 | 19 | 12.3 | 26.1 | 16.3 | 42.4 | 24.4 | 34.6 |
| 10 year cumulative incidence, % | 21.1 | 67.6 | 45.4 | 54.4 | 76.7 | 32.6 | 22.1 | 41.1 | 31.5 | 65.6 | 44.4 | 58.6 |
| 12 year cumulative incidence, % | 25.5 | 69.4 | 48.5 | 56.2 | 84.3 | 36.7 | 25.4 | 44.5 | 37.6 | 71 | 51.3 | 65.7 |
| 5 year cumulative incidence no genes, % | 19.6 | 31 | 31.3 | 21.7 | 23.5 | 29.3 | 26.2 | 28.3 | 32.7 | 34.3 | 28.9 | 32.4 |
| 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | |
| Eye | OS | OS | OS | OS | OS | OS | OS | OS | OS | OS | OS | OS |
| Age | 65-74 | < 65 | 65-74 | 65-74 | 65-74 | ≥ 75 | 65-74 | 65-74 | ≥ 75 | 65-74 | 65-74 | < 65 |
| Sex | F | F | F | F | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M |
| Education | > HS | > HS | ≤ HS | > HS | ≤ HS | > HS | ≤ HS | ≤ HS | > HS | ≤ HS | > HS | > HS |
| Body mass index | ≥ 30 | ≥ 30 | < 25 | 25-29 | 25-29 | < 25 | < 25 | 25-29 | 25-29 | 25-29 | 25-29 | 25-29 |
| Smoking | Past | Past | Never | Past | Past | Past | Never | Never | Never | PAST | Past | Current |
| Complement pathway | ||||||||||||
| CFH Y402H: rs1061170 | CC | CT | TT | CC | CT | CC | CC | CC | CC | CT | CC | CT |
| CFH: rs1410996 | CC | CT | CT | CC | CT | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC |
| CFH R1210C: rs121913059 | CC | CC | CC | CC | CT | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC |
| C2 E318D: rs9332739 | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG |
| CFB R32Q: rs641153 | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CT | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC |
| C3 R102G: rs2230199 | CG | CG | CG | CG | CG | CC | GG | CC | CG | CC | CC | CC |
| C3 K155Q: rs147859257 | TT | GT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT |
| Immune/inflammatory pathway | ||||||||||||
| ARMS2/HTRA1: rs10490924 | GG | TT | GG | TT | GG | GG | GG | GT | GG | GT | GG | GG |
| PELI3: rs145732233 | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC | CT | CC | CC | CC | CC | CC |
| Extracellular matrix | ||||||||||||
| COL8A1: rs13095226 | TT | TT | TT | TT | TT | CT | TT | TT | CT | TT | TT | TT |
| CTRB1: rs8056814 | GG | GG | GG | GG | GG | AG | GG | GG | AG | GG | GG | GG |
| DNA repair/protein binding | ||||||||||||
| RAD51B: rs8017304 | GA | AA | GG | GG | GA | GA | GG | AA | AA | GA | GG | GG |
| HSPH1/B3GALTL: rs9542236 | CC | TT | TT | CC | CT | TT | CC | CT | CT | CC | TT | CT |
| 2 year cumulative incidence, % | 13.7 | 20 | 3.6 | 18.7 | 28.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 7.3 |
| 5 year cumulative incidence, % | 32 | 45 | 9.3 | 40.9 | 58.7 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 29.1 | 26.2 | 27.2 | 15.2 | 18.2 |
| 10 year cumulative incidence, % | 55.3 | 73.9 | 19.5 | 63.4 | 83.6 | 18.8 | 22.4 | 49.6 | 41.1 | 48 | 30.5 | 36.7 |
| 12 year cumulative incidence, % | 62.6 | 82 | 24.3 | 68.6 | 88 | 21.5 | 27 | 55.8 | 44.6 | 54.9 | 37.1 | 44.8 |
| 5 year cumulative incidence no genes, % | 28.6 | 23.1 | 22.3 | 23.5 | 30.6 | 23.6 | 24.4 | 22.4 | 22.9 | 22.4 | 24.6 | 27.6 |
Results shown for derivation cohort. F = Female; M =Male; HS = high school.