TABLE 2.
Multivariate Associations Between Demographic, Behavioral, and Ocular Factors and Progression to Overall Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration, Geographic Atrophy, and Neovascular Disease in the Derivation Cohort
| Overall advanced AMD | Progression to GA | Progression to NV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI)a | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | |
| Demographic | ||||||
| Age (years) | ||||||
| ≥ 75 | Referent | Referent | Referent | |||
| 65 to 74.9 | 0.69 (0.59-0.81) | <.0001 | 0.72 (0.58-0.89) | 0.003 | 0.68 (0.57-0.83) | 0.0001 |
| 55 to 64.9 | 0.49 (0.40-0.62) | <.0001 | 0.55 (0.41-0.74) | 0.0001 | 0.46 (0.35-0.60) | <.0001 |
| Sex | ||||||
| Female | Referent | Referent | Referent | |||
| Male | 0.97 (0.34-1.12) | 0.64 | 1.20 (0.99-1.46) | 0.06 | 0.83 (0.69-0.99) | 0.04 |
| Race | ||||||
| Non-Caucasian | Referent | Referent | Referent | |||
| Caucasian | 4.11 (2.20-7.67) | <.0001 | 8.38 (2.11-33.33) | 0.003 | 2.72 (1.34-5.53) | 0.006 |
| Behavioral | ||||||
| Education | ||||||
| ≤ High school | Referent | Referent | Referent | |||
| > High school | 0.79 (0.69-0.91) | 0.0007 | 0.81 (0.67-0.97) | 0.03 | 0.79 (0.67-0.94) | 0.006 |
| Body mass index | ||||||
| < 25 | Referent | Referent | Referent | |||
| 25 to 29.9 | 1.16 (0.99-1.36) | 0.08 | 1.05 (0.84-1.32) | 0.66 | 1.18 (0.97-1.44) | 0.1 |
| ≥30 | 1.41 (1.19-1.68) | 0.0001 | 1.35 (1.06-1.71) | 0.01 | 1.35 (1.08-1.67) | 0.007 |
| Smoking | ||||||
| Never | Referent | Referent | Referent | |||
| Past | 1.26 (1.09-1.45) | 0.002 | 1.04 (0.85-1.27) | 0.7 | 1.40 (1.17-1.68) | 0.0002 |
| Current | 2.22 (1.71-2.88) | <.0001 | 1.46 (1.01-2.10) | 0.05 | 2.49 (1.83-3.40) | <.0001 |
| Ocular | ||||||
| Baseline AMD grade | ||||||
| 1 | Referent | Referent | Referent | |||
| 2 | 6.90 (4.46-10.67) | <.0001 | 18.92 (6.80-52.65) | <.0001 | 5.17 (3.18-8.39) | <.0001 |
| 3 | 46.8 (31.22-70.19) | <.0001 | 152.59 (57.05-408.17) | <.0001 | 25.97 (16.61-40.61) | <.0001 |
AMD = age-related macular degeneration; CI = confidence interval; GA = geographic atrophy; HR = hazard ratio; NV = neovascular disease.
a
HRs and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models for 12 year progression using the individual eye as the unit of analysis.
HRs are adjusted for all variables listed in the Table.