TABLE 5.
Stepwise Selection of Genetic Factors Predictive of Progression to Overall Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration, Geographic Atrophy, Neovascular Disease, and Visual Acuity Loss in the Derivation Cohort.
| Overall advanced AMD | Progression to GA | Progression to NV | VA Loss ≥ 15 Letters | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n=1149/5355a | n=578/5355 | n=677/5355 | n=1423/4943 | |||||
| HR (95% CI)b | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | |
| Genetic loci | ||||||||
| Complement pathway | ||||||||
| CFH Y402H: rs1061170 | 1.14 (1.02-1.29) | 0.03 | 1.17 (1.01-1.36) | 0.04 | ||||
| CFH: rs1410996 | 1.46 (1.26-1.69) | <.0001 | 1.54 (1.28-1.86) | <.0001 | 1.40 (1.16-1.69) | 0.0004 | 1.30 (1.19-1.43) | <.0001 |
| CFH R1210C: rs121913059 | 4.18 (2.79-6.27) | <.0001 | 4.30 (2.10-8.83) | <.0001 | 4.02 (1.92-8.40) | 0.0002 | 3.01 (1.67-5.41) | 0.0002 |
| C2 E318D: rs9332739 | 0.60 (0.43-0.85) | 0.004 | ||||||
| CFB R32Q: rs641153 | 0.71 (0.54-0.93) | 0.01 | 0.69 (0.49-0.96) | 0.03 | ||||
| CFI: rs10033900 | 1.16 (1.00-1.34) | 0.06 | ||||||
| C3 R102G: rs2230199 | 1.27 (1.15-1.41) | <.0001 | 1.19 (1.00-1.41) | 0.05 | 1.24 (1.09-1.41) | 0.001 | 1.23 (1.12-1.35) | <.0001 |
| C3 K155Q: rs147859257 | 2.00 (1.50-2.66) | <.0001 | 2.66 (1.74-4.06) | <.0001 | 1.43 (1.05-1.94) | 0.02 | ||
| Angiogenesis pathway | ||||||||
| TGFBR1: rs334353 | 0.83 (0.72-0.96) | 0.01 | ||||||
| Immune/inflammatory pathway | ||||||||
| ARMS2/HTRA1: rs10490924 | 1.47 (1.34-1.62) | <.0001 | 1.44 (1.23-1.67) | <.0001 | 1.57 (1.39-1.77) | <.0001 | 1.33 (1.22-1.45) | <.0001 |
| PELI3: rs145732233 | 0.29 (0.07-1.18) | 0.08 | ||||||
| Extracellular matrix | ||||||||
| COL8A1: rs13095226 | 1.18 (1.03-1.37) | 0.02 | 1.29 (1.02-1.64) | 0.04 | 1.19 (1.00-1.42) | 0.05 | ||
| COL4A3: rs11884770 | 0.85 (0.74-0.98) | 2 | ||||||
| CTRB1: rs8056814 | 0.84 (0.69-1.02) | 0.07 | ||||||
| DNA repair/protein binding | ||||||||
| RAD51B: rs8017304 | 0.85 (0.77-0.94) | 0.001 | 0.81 (0.71-0.93) | 0.002 | 0.86 (0.79-0.94) | 0.001 | ||
| HSPH1/B3GALTL: rs9542236 | 1.14 (1.04-1.25) | 0.004 | ||||||
| AUC ± standard errorc | 0.90 ± 0.005 | -- | 0.87 ± 0.008 | -- | 0.86 ± 0.008 | -- | 0.72 ± 0.008 | -- |
AMD = age-related macular degeneration; AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; GA = geographic atrophy; HR = hazard ratio; NV = neovascular disease; VA = visual acuity.
Sample sizes reported as (numerator/denominator), where the numerator is equal to the number of eyes that progressed during follow up, and the denominator is equal to the number of eligible eyes at baseline, among participants with complete genetic data. Note that the number of eligible eyes does not equal two times the number of persons, as some people only contributed one eye to the analysis if the fellow eye had advanced AMD at baseline. Also note that the sum of the sample sizes for GA and NV disease do not equal the sample size for advanced AMD, as the sample for NV includes eyes that had GA and developed NV.
HRs for 12 year progression represent risk per allele, and are adjusted for age, sex, race, education, baseline AMD grade, BMI, smoking status, and all other SNPs in the table.
All area under the curve (AUC) statistics are age-adjusted in order to minimize confounding by age.