TABLE 9.
Area Under the Curve Statistics for Progression to Overall Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration, Geographic Atrophy, and Neovascular Disease in the Derivation and Validation Cohorts at 5, 10, and 12 Years after Baseline.
| Derivation Cohort | Validation Cohort | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressors | Non-Progressors | AUC ± SE | Progressors | Non-Progressors | AUC ± SEa | |
| 5 years | ||||||
| Overall advanced AMD | 590 | 4758 | 0.873 ± 0.008 | 316 | 2995 | 0.852 ± 0.011 |
| GA | 280 | 5063 | 0.859 ± 0.011 | 162 | 2992 | 0.870 ± 0.014 |
| NV | 331 | 5012 | 0.853 ± 0.011 | 159 | 3119 | 0.825 ± 0.017 |
| 10 years | ||||||
| Overall advanced AMD | 1056 | 3559 | 0.900 ± 0.005 | 595 | 1752 | 0.876 ± 0.008 |
| GA | 579 | 3946 | 0.866 ± 0.008 | 315 | 1752 | 0.887 ± 0.010 |
| NV | 620 | 3908 | 0.861 ± 0.008 | 302 | 1910 | 0.828 ± 0.013 |
| 12 years | ||||||
| Overall advanced AMD | 1149 | 4206 | 0.900 ± 0.005 | 686 | 1268 | 0.896 ± 0.007 |
| GA | 578 | 4777 | 0.870 ± 0.008 | 357 | 1268 | 0. 899 ± 0.009 |
| NV | 677 | 4678 | 0.860 ± 0.008 | 364 | 1408 | 0.836 ± 0.012 |
AMD = age-related macular degeneration; AREDS = Age-Related Eye Disease Study; AUC = area under the curve; GA = geographic atrophy; NV = neovascular disease.
a
Calculated by applying the composite risk score derived from the derivation cohort to the independent validation cohort.