Table 1.

Numerical summary of Fig. 7, using a final size of 0.15N to separate minor from major outbreaks

Quantity	D Poisson, Model $E(\omega ,\gamma )$				D Geometric, Model $E(\omega ,\gamma )$
	Asymptotic	Estimate	95% CI		Asymptotic	Estimate	95% CI
Prob. of major outbreak	–	0.601	(0.592, 0.611)		–	0.529	(0.519, 0.539)
Mean of major outbreak final size	675.8	673.5	(672.6, 674.3)		578.0	576.8	(576.3, 577.4)
St. dev. of major outbreak final size	32.0	32.4	(31.8, 33.0)		20.0	20.3	(19.9, 20.6)
	D Poisson, Model $E(0,\gamma +\omega )$				D Geometric, Model $E(0,\gamma +\omega )$
	Asymptotic	Estimate	95% CI		Asymptotic	Estimate	95% CI
Prob. of major outbreak	–	0.483	(0.474, 0.493)		–	0.453	(0.443, 0.463)
Mean of major outbreak final size	675.8	672.6	(671.6, 673.7)		578.0	577.2	(576.5, 577.8)
St. dev. of major outbreak final size	37.1	38.3	(37.6, 39.1)		22.6	22.4	(21.9, 22.8)