Table 3.
Cox proportional hazards models – Southern African Rural HDSSs.
| Africa centre HDSS |
Agincourt HDSS |
Manhiςa HDSS |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All deaths |
All deaths |
All deaths |
||||
| Male | Female | Male | Female | Male | Female | |
| Permanent resident (Ref) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| In-migrant | ||||||
| 6 – 24 months in HDSS | 0.94 (0.83–1.05) | 0.85** (0.75–0.97) | 1.37*** (1.20–1.56) | 1.26*** (1.12–1.43) | 1.41*** (1.26–1.58) | 1.45*** (1.27–1.65) |
| 25 – 59 months in HDSS | 0.86** (0.76–0.97) | 1.09 (0.97–1.23) | 1.08 (0.95–1.23) | 1.14** (1.02–1.27) | 1.12** (1.01–1.25) | 1.19*** (1.06–1.35) |
| 60 + months in HDSS | 1.02 (0.88–1.18) | 1.19** (1.03–1.38) | 0.88* (0.77–1.01) | 1.03 (0.92–1.15) | 0.97 (0.86–1.09) | 1.11 (0.98–1.27) |
| Return migrant | ||||||
| 6 – 24 months in HDSS | 1.18* (1.00–1.40) | 1.36*** (1.14–1.62) | 4.99*** (4.36–5.70) | 5.39*** (4.55–6.37) | 1.27*** (1.10–1.48) | 1.58*** (1.36–1.84) |
| 25 – 59 months in HDSS | 1.08 (0.91–1.29) | 1.23** (1.03–1.48) | 1.23** (1.04–1.45) | 1.53*** (1.22–1.92) | 1 (0.86–1.15) | 1.47*** (1.28–1.69) |
| 60 + months in HDSS | 0.98 (0.75–1.27) | 1.22 (0.95–1.58) | 0.97 (0.81–1.17) | 0.85 (0.62–1.16) | 1.08 (0.91–1.29) | 1.05 (0.87–1.27) |
| Return Migrant Exposure < 36months (Ref) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 + months away | 0.98 (0.78–1.24) | 1.14 (0.90–1.45) | 1.40*** (1.23–1.59) | 1.33*** (1.11–1.59) | 1.16* (0.98–1.39) | 1.17 (0.96–1.42) |
| Period | ||||||
| 1 Jan 1998–1 Jan 2001 (1998) | n.a. | n.a. | 0.78*** (0.69–0.90) | 0.74*** (0.65–0.85) | n.a. | n.a. |
| 1 Jan 2001–1 Jan 2004 (2001) | 1.06 (0.95–1.18) | 1.34*** (1.21–1.50) | 1.44*** (1.28–1.61) | 1.20*** (1.07–1.35) | 1.12** (1.02–1.23) | 1.29*** (1.17–1.42) |
| 1 Jan 2004–1 Jan 2007 (2004) | 1.31*** (1.18–1.45) | 1.75*** (1.58–1.93) | 1.91*** (1.72–2.13) | 1.56*** (1.40–1.74) | 1.24*** (1.14–1.36) | 1.39*** (1.27–1.51) |
| 1 Jan 2007–1 Jan 2010 (2007) | 1.25*** (1.13–1.38) | 1.41*** (1.27–1.56) | 1.70*** (1.53–1.89) | 1.30*** (1.17–1.45) | 1.13*** (1.04–1.23) | 1.20*** (1.10–1.31) |
| 1 Jan 2010–1 Jan 2013 (2010) (Ref) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Education | ||||||
| No Formal (Ref) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Some primary | 1.19*** (1.06–1.34) | 1.03 (0.92–1.15) | 0.96 (0.87–1.06) | 0.90* (0.82–1.00) | 0.83*** (0.77–0.90) | 1.02 (0.95–1.10) |
| Some secondary | 0.85** (0.75–0.96) | 0.88** (0.78–0.99) | 0.85*** (0.76–0.94) | 0.89** (0.80–1.00) | 0.59*** (0.52–0.68) | 0.53*** (0.43–0.65) |
| Some tertiary | 0.36*** (0.31–0.41) | 0.30*** (0.26–0.35) | 0.41*** (0.33–0.50) | 0.51*** (0.41–0.62) | n.a. | n.a. |
| Unknown | 7.02*** (6.12–8.05) | 10.60*** (9.26–12.14) | 3.08*** (2.49–3.81) | 3.00*** (2.34–3.84) | 0 (0.00–0.00) | 0 (0.00–0.00) |
| Observations | 132,397 | 178,581 | 334,011 | 486,753 | 161,391 | 254,925 |
| Wald Chi-square | 1793 | 2238 | 2067 | 970.8 | 195.2 | 237 |
| Log likelihood | −26421 | −30511 | −22910 | −25463 | −30180 | −34677 |
| Subjects | 38,234 | 46,303 | 40,818 | 55,904 | 37,663 | 48,787 |
| Time at risk | 179,333 | 251,414 | 180,818 | 275,656 | 171,254 | 270,686 |
| Failures | 3593 | 3860 | 3198 | 3143 | 3966 | 4203 |
***
p < 0.01
**
p < 0.05
*
p < 0.1.
n.a. = not applicable.