Table 3.
Predicted cumulative prostate cancer risks for a 35-yr-old man born in 1960 or later and carrying a single copy of the HOXB13 G84E mutation, as estimated by the most parsimonious model, by varying family history of prostate cancer
| Family history | Prostate cancer risk for consultand by age (yr) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | 75 | 80 | 85 | |
| Average familial riska | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1% | 3% | 9% | 17% | 29% | 42% | 53% | 62% |
| Father unaffected at age 80, grandfather unaffected at age 80 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2% | 6% | 14% | 25% | 38% | 50% | 60% |
| Father unaffected at age 80, grandfather had prostate cancer at age 80 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3% | 9% | 19% | 33% | 48% | 60% | 70% |
| Father had prostate cancer at age 80, grandfather had prostate cancer at age 80 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 25% | 40% | 56% | 69% | 78% |
| Father had prostate cancer at age (yr) | ||||||||||
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.8% | 4% | 13% | 28% | 47% | 65% | 79% | 87% | 92% |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.8% | 4% | 13% | 28% | 47% | 65% | 79% | 87% | 92% |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 4% | 12% | 25% | 43% | 61% | 75% | 84% | 89% |
| 70 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2% | 7% | 16% | 29% | 46% | 60% | 71% | 79% |
| 80 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 21% | 35% | 49% | 60% | 69% |
| Brother had prostate cancer at age (yr) | ||||||||||
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 5% | 14% | 29% | 48% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 90% |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 4% | 14% | 28% | 47% | 63% | 77% | 85% | 89% |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 3% | 9% | 20% | 36% | 53% | 68% | 77% | 84% |
| 70 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1% | 5% | 13% | 25% | 40% | 55% | 67% | 75% |
| 80 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3% | 9% | 18% | 31% | 44% | 56% | 66% |
| Prostate cancer risk for consultand by age 85 yr | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brother had prostate cancer at age (yr) |
|||||
| 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | |
| Father had prostate cancer at age (yr) | |||||
| 40 | 98% | 98% | 97% | 93% | 90% |
| 50 | 98% | 98% | 96% | 93% | 90% |
| 60 | 98% | 98% | 95% | 91% | 88% |
| 70 | 94% | 93% | 90% | 84% | 78% |
| 80 | 90% | 89% | 84% | 77% | 70% |
HOXB13 = homeobox B13.
In all family history scenarios, consultands and their brothers were assumed to be born in 1960 or later, fathers were assumed to be born in 1930–39, and grandfathers were assumed to be born in 1909 or earlier.
a
That is, ignoring family history information.