Risk adjustor variables	Population frequency	Base model	Constrained model
Intercept	100.00%	203	−790
Male. 0	0.55%	3716	5898
Male. 1–4	2.27%	425	−85
Male. 5–9	2.96%	289	−72
Male. 10–14	3.11%	172	410
Male. 15–17	1.81%	192	629
Male. 18–24	4.29%	−15	−38
Male. 25–29	2.94%	−42	−58
Male. 30–34	2.95%	−39	−34
Male. 35–39	3.08%	0	0
Male. 40–44	3.83%	75	114
Male. 45–49	3.89%	187	263
Male. 50–54	3.67%	333	499
Male. 55–59	3.33%	584	936
Male. 60–64	3.19%	813	1364
Male. 65–69	2.73%	1278	1643
Male. 70–74	1.90%	1661	2041
Male. 75–79	1.37%	2104	2401
Male. 80–84	0.89%	2248	2351
Male. 85–89	0.43%	2364	2105
Male. 90+	0.15%	2542	1433
Female. 0	0.52%	3069	5207
Female. 1–4	2.17%	199	−154
Female. 5–9	2.82%	153	158
Female. 10–14	2.97%	142	514
Female. 15–17	1.72%	324	416
Female. 18–24	4.18%	305	145
Female. 25–29	2.96%	774	985
Female. 30–34	2.99%	935	1549
Female. 35–39	3.14%	546	977
Female. 40–44	3.83%	309	439
Female. 45–49	3.86%	352	387
Female. 50–54	3.68%	463	578
Female. 55–59	3.34%	573	773
Female. 60–64	3.18%	733	1110
Female. 65–69	2.78%	1043	1162
Female. 70–74	2.07%	1362	1534
Female. 75–79	1.71%	1703	2019
Female. 80–84	1.37%	1955	2296
Female. 85–89	0.89%	2165	2341
Female. 90+	0.48%	2125	1181
No PCG a	82.03%	201	637
Glaucoma	0.85%	279	346
Thyroid disorders	1.64%	83	−181
Mental disorders	0.53%	95	1243
Depressive disorder	2.67%	184	−636
Peripheral neuropathy	0.38%	1159	157
Hypercholesterolemia	5.30%	178	−620
Diabetes II without hypertension	0.63%	531	−1868
COPD / severe asthma	1.16%	1565	1165
Asthma	2.16%	573	643
Diabetes II with hypertension	1.40%	845	−1511
Epilepsy	0.48%	834	−245
Crohn’s disease / Colitis ulcerosa	0.20%	818	2881
Heart diseases	2.21%	1500	1242
Rheumatoid arthritis (TNF-α)	0.19%	14164	14623
Rheumatoid arthritis (other)	0.32%	1478	2813
Parkinson’s disease	0.14%	2176	3527
Diabetes type I	1.29%	1361	649
Transplantations	0.15%	89	6361
Cystic fibrosis / Pancreatic disease	0.04%	3021	15999
Disorders of brain/ spinal cord	0.07%	1511	4128
Cancer	0.09%	3697	9279
Hormone-sensitive tumors	0.35%	−712	−2226
HIV/AIDS	0.08%	2826	29936
Kidney disorders	0.07%	7201	15969
No DCG b	91.00%	0	0
DCG1	0.67%	391	400
DCG2	1.49%	560	750
DCG3	1.11%	635	659
DCG4	1.80%	1011	3436
DCG5	1.16%	1618	2657
DCG6	1.26%	2002	3813
DCG7	0.55%	3225	9061
DCG8	0.12%	3989	9721
DCG9	0.30%	3847	6950
DCG10	0.33%	7307	14332
DCG11	0.04%	8722	14286
DCG12	0.07%	8608	20788
DCG13	0.04%	15876	32097
DCG14	0.04%	65152	63374
DCG15	0.01%	51005	140811
ZIP-code cluster 1	9.91%	169	479
ZIP-code cluster 2	9.88%	124	351
ZIP-code cluster 3	9.97%	101	254
ZIP-code cluster 4	9.86%	84	215
ZIP-code cluster 5	10.01%	68	203
ZIP-code cluster 6	9.91%	64	171
ZIP-code cluster 7	9.98%	50	129
ZIP-code cluster 8	9.98%	38	78
ZIP-code cluster 9	10.17%	24	44
ZIP-code cluster 10	10.32%	0	0
Age = 0–17 or 65+	37.67%	0	0
Disability beneficiaries. 15–34	0.91%	647	−969
Disability beneficiaries. 34–44	0.77%	803	−50
Disability beneficiaries. 45–54	1.30%	720	88
Disability beneficiaries. 55–64	2.02%	596	362
General beneficiaries. 15–34	0.57%	267	−260
General beneficiaries. 34–44	0.55%	353	−214
General beneficiaries. 45–54	0.60%	412	43
General beneficiaries. 55–64	0.48%	368	327
Students. 18–34	3.20%	−238	−233
Self-employed. 15–34	0.78%	−116	−155
Self-employed. 34–44	1.27%	−111	−112
Self-employed. 45–54	1.32%	−146	−156
Self-employed. 55–64	0.79%	−152	−148
Other. 15–34	14.84%	0	0
Other. 34–44	11.29%	0	0
Other. 45–54	11.88%	0	0
Other. 55–64	9.75%	0	0
No MYHCG c	94.24%	0	0
2x costs in top-10%	1.01%	2661	6082
3x costs in top-15%	2.30%	2318	3155
3x costs in top-10%	1.05%	3680	4370
3x costs in top-7%	0.78%	5692	6085
3x costs in top-4%	0.46%	9661	9066
3x costs in top-1.5%	0.15%	25836	37142
No DMECG d	99.17%	0	0
Insulin pumps	0.12%	422	−3319
Catheters	0.39%	1308	−1212
Stoma	0.31%	1801	−929
Trachea-stoma	0.02%	6546	2464
Address >15 residents. 0–17	0.06%	244	−1059
Address >15 residents. 18–64	0.38%	169	480
Address >15 residents. 65+	0.72%	321	5820
Income deciles 1–3. 0–17	6.25%	27	−110
Income deciles 1–3. 18–64	18.57%	53	12
Income deciles 1–3. 65+	4.81%	200	−269
Income deciles 4–7. 0–17	8.34%	−5	−115
Income deciles 4–7. 18–64	24.79%	48	23
Income deciles 4–7. 65+	6.41%	44	−166
Income deciles. 8–10. 0–17	6.25%	0	0
Income deciles. 8–10. 18–64	18.59%	0	0
Income deciles. 8–10. 65+	4.81%	0	0
65-. no morbidity e	70.38%	0	0
65-. morbidity	12.86%	618	1541
65+. no morbidity	6.89%	0	0
65+. morbidity	9.88%	642	2272

^aPCG = Pharmacy-based Cost Group

^bDCG = Diagnostic-based Cost Group

^cMYHCG = Multiple-Year High Cost Group

^dDMECG = Durable Medical Equipment Cost Group

^eMorbidity is operationalized as having at least one PCG, DCG, MYHCG or DMECG.