Table 1.
Sensitivity analysis of the probability of freedom (Pfree) (mean, lower and upper limits) after 22-years of surveillance for given design prevalence (P*) and probability of introduction (Pintro) values. Lower Pfree limit above a 95% confidence estimate (bold), and above 99% confidence estimate (bold, italicised).
| Design Prevalence | Yearly probability of introduction | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | 7% | 10% | 20% | |
| 1% | 96.5% (89.4–99.1%) | 84.8% (66.5-93.5%) | 76.6% (50.6–90.4%) | 38.9% (9.4–78.2%) |
| 2% | 99.5% (99.3–99.6%) | 96.1% (95.1–97.4%) | 94.3% (92.8–96.1%) | 87.7% (84.3–91.6%) |
| 5% | 99.9% (99.8–99.9%) | 99.0% (98.5–99.6%) | 98.5% (97.8–99.4%) | 96.7% (95.3–98.6%) |
| 10% | 99.9% (99.9–100%) | 99.8% (99.7–99.9%) | 99.8% (99.6–99.9%) | 99.5% (99.1–99.9%) |
| 15% | 99.9% (99.9–100%) | 99.9% (99.9–100%) | 99.9% (99.9–100%) | 99.9% (99.8–100%) |