Table 2.
Model parameters respective reported uncertainty (estimate sand 95% CI), allocated distribution for the stochastic modelling and source of information.
| Model parameters | Estimate | 95%CI lower limit | 95%CI upper limit | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population proportion | |||||
| PrPFemale | 50.7% | 54.4% | 47.1% | Beta (365.9257, 355.3342) | 55 |
| PrPTWC I/Female | 38.8% | 33.9% | 43.9% | Beta (138.1517, 217.4571) | 55 |
| PrPTWC II/Female | 15.6% | 12.1% | 19.6% | Beta (52.5587, 280.6404) | 55 |
| PrPTWC III/Female | 22.2% | 18.1% | 26.7% | Beta (76.5331, 266.265) | 55 |
| PrPTWC IV/Female | 17.9% | 14.2% | 22.2% | Beta (61.1473, 276.0853) | 55 |
| PrPTWC V/Female | 4.0% | 2.2% | 6.4% | Beta (15.8344, 360.9804) | 55 |
| PrPTWC VI/Female | 1.6% | 0.6% | 3.4% | Beta (6.9566, 371.3016) | 55 |
| PrPMale | 49.3% | 45.6% | 52.9% | Beta (354.923, 365.5023) | 55 |
| PrPTWC I/Male | 44.3% | 39.1% | 49.5% | Beta (156.1654, 196.1467) | 55 |
| PrPTWC II/Male | 13.9% | 10.5% | 17.8% | Beta (44.9898, 274.427) | 55 |
| PrPTWC III/Male | 20.4% | 16.4% | 24.9% | Beta (67.8923, 262.326) | 55 |
| PrPTWC IV/Male | 14.7% | 11.2% | 18.7% | Beta (47.83, 273.3078) | 55 |
| PrPTWC V/Male | 3.0% | 1.5% | 5.3% | Beta (11.8921, 354.4976) | 55 |
| PrPTWC VI/Male | 3.8% | 2.1% | 6.3% | Beta (14.8459, 351.1047) | 55 |
| Relative risk | |||||
| RRFemalea | 1.00 | — | — | — | 27 |
| RRMale | 1.52 | 1.08 | 2.15 | Pert (1.52, 1.08, 2.15) | 27 |
| RRTWC Ib | 1.00 | — | — | — | 27 |
| RRTWC II | 1.00 | — | — | — | 27 |
| RRTWC III | 1.29 | 0.74 | 2.25 | Pert (1.29, 0.74, 2.25) | 27 |
| RRTWC IV | 1.29 | 0.74 | 2.25 | Pert (1.29, 0.74, 2.25) | 27 |
| RRTWC V | 2.77 | 1.44 | 5.37 | Pert (2.77, 1.44, 5.37) | 27 |
| RRTWC VI | 2.77 | 1.44 | 5.37 | Pert (2.77, 1.44, 5.37) | 27 |
| Test accuracy | |||||
| DSePCR | 100.0% | 83.9% | 100.0% | Beta (21.00000977, 1) | Jelocnik, unpublished |
| DSpPCR | 100.0% | 76.8% | 100.0% | Beta (14.000000485, 1) | Jelocnik, unpublished |
PrP, expected proportion of sex and age within sex, of the population.
TWC, tooth wear class.
RR, relative risk.
DSePCR, probability of qPCR to test positive if the koala is truly infected.
DSpPCR, probability of qPCR to test negative if the koala is truly non-infected.
aSex risk of C. pecorum in a koala relative to the risk of C. pecorum in females.
bAge risk of C. pecorum in a koala relative to the risk of a koala with C. pecorum in TWC I.