Table 1.
Key behavioral, epidemic and intervention parameters used in the analysis.
| Description | Value (range) | Ref |
|---|---|---|
| MSM population size at the start of the simulation in 2004 | 400,000 | Chow et al. (2016) |
| HIV acquisition risk per sexual act with infected partner in asymptomatic HIV stage (CD4 >200) | 0.1%–0.2% | (Baggaley et al., 2010; Jin et al., 2010) |
| Relative infectiousness of acutely infected MSM compared to MSM with CD4>200 | 26 | Hollingsworth et al. (2008) |
| Multiplier of HIV acquisition risk per sexual act with infected partner with 12CD4<200 | 3 | calculated (Hollingsworth et al., 2008) |
| Average number of sexual acts per year in main partnerships | 40–60 | assumed |
| Average number of sexual acts per year in short-term partnerships | 2–5 | assumed |
| Average number of sexual partners per year of low risk MSM | 1.3–1.7 | SABES data |
| Average number of sexual partners per year of high risk MSM | 51–58 | SABES data |
| Proportion of sex acts protected by condom | 50% | (Ministry of Health of Per, 2006; Sanchez et al., 2007) |
| Efficacy of condom in preventing HIV transmission per anal act | 70%–90% | Smith, Herbst, Zhang, and Rose (2015) |
| Reduction of HIV infectiousness of virally-suppressed MSM on ART | 100% | (Bavinton et al., 2018; Rodger et al., 2016) |
| Reduction of HIV infectiousness of virally-unsuppressed MSM on ART | 30%–70% | assumed |
| Average time to initiate ART for newly diagnosed MSM who meet eligibility criteria at the time | 6–10 months | estimated to fit cascade |
| Annual ART drop rate | 6%–8% | Rebeiro et al. (2013) |