Figure 6.
Effect of mutational load upon a transmitted variant. Simulations were initiated with one out of five viruses carrying the beneficial allele. (A) Effective selection coefficients for a beneficial mutation in simulations which included the effects of mutational load. Red dots show the mean effective selection for mutations of selection coefficients tested. Vertical red bars show 90 per cent confidence intervals for this statistic. Grey shading represents the distribution of inferred effective selection values. Simulations were conducted with an initial population bottleneck of 5 and a mutation rate of 1.8 × 10−4 per base per generation. (B) Probability that the beneficial variant will reach fixation during the course of an infection. Results are shown for simulations in the absence (blue) or presence (yellow) of mutational load. (C) Probability that a variant will die out during the course of infection. Error bars show the extent of variation across 10,000 simulations for each point. Data are shown here for the WF-CM model.