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. 2018 Sep 21;22(3):456–462. doi: 10.1007/s10120-018-0877-z

Table 3.

Number needed to screen, number needed to recall, and number of life saved by gastric cancer screening based on future prediction of gastric cancer mortality

Mortality reductiona Year Age 45–54 Age 55–64 Age 65–74 Age 75-
Mortality rate for 10 yearsb (%) NNSc NNRd NLS5 Mortality rate for 10 years (%) NNS NNR NLS Mortality rate for 10 years (%) NNS NNR NLS Mortality rate for 10 years (%) NNS NNR NLS
Recall rate Participation rate Recall rate Participation rate Recall rate Participation rate Recall rate Participation rate
5% 10% 50% 100% 5% 10% 50% 100% 5% 10% 50% 100% 5% 10% 50% 100%
RRd = 0.5 2010 0.13 1560 78 156 63 376 0.54 372 19 37 310 1861 1.32 151 8 15 593 3559 3.21 62 3 6 1071 6428
2015 0.09 2140 107 214 49 293 0.40 497 25 50 199 1197 1.09 184 9 18 565 3393 2.79 72 4 7 1095 6572
2020 0.07 2709 135 271 43 255 0.31 643 32 64 147 881 0.93 214 11 21 486 2914 2.54 79 4 8 1165 6990
2025 0.10 2725 136 273 41 248 0.33 706 35 71 143 855 0.89 252 13 25 354 2126 2.55 89 4 9 1229 7376
2030 0.08 2503 125 250 39 233 0.28 725 36 73 153 919 0.72 278 14 28 308 1849 2.13 94 5 9 1224 7346
2035 0.09 2210 110 221 39 233 0.27 732 37 73 148 889 0.69 290 14 29 317 1901 2.04 98 5 10 1148 6885
RR = 0.6 2010 0.13 1950 97 195 48 287 0.54 465 23 47 236 1418 1.32 189 9 19 452 2711 3.21 78 4 8 816 4897
2015 0.09 2675 134 268 37 223 0.40 621 31 62 152 912 1.09 230 11 23 431 2585 2.79 90 4 9 835 5007
2020 0.07 3386 169 339 32 194 0.31 804 40 80 112 671 0.93 268 13 27 370 2220 2.54 98 5 10 888 5326
2025 0.10 3407 170 341 31 189 0.33 882 44 88 109 651 0.89 315 16 32 270 1620 2.55 111 6 11 937 5620
2030 0.08 3129 156 313 30 177 0.28 906 45 91 117 700 0.72 348 17 35 235 1409 2.13 117 6 12 933 5597
2035 0.09 2762 138 276 30 177 0.27 915 46 92 113 677 0.69 362 18 36 241 1449 2.04 123 6 12 874 5246
RR = 0.7 2010 0.13 2600 130 260 34 205 0.54 620 31 62 169 1015 1.32 252 13 25 324 1941 3.21 104 5 10 584 3506
2015 0.09 3567 178 357 27 160 0.40 829 41 83 109 653 1.09 306 15 31 308 1851 2.79 120 6 12 597 3585
2020 0.07 4515 226 452 23 139 0.31 1072 54 107 80 481 0.93 357 18 36 265 1589 2.54 131 7 13 635 3813
2025 0.10 4542 227 454 23 135 0.33 1176 59 118 78 466 0.89 420 21 42 193 1160 2.55 148 7 15 671 4023
2030 0.08 4171 209 417 21 127 0.28 1208 60 121 84 501 0.72 463 23 46 168 1008 2.13 156 8 16 668 4007
2035 0.09 3683 184 368 21 127 0.27 1220 61 122 81 485 0.69 483 24 48 173 1037 2.04 163 8 16 626 3755
RR = 0.8 2010 0.13 3900 195 390 22 131 0.54 930 47 93 108 647 1.32 378 19 38 206 1238 3.21 156 8 16 373 2236
2015 0.09 5351 268 535 17 102 0.40 1243 62 124 69 416 1.09 459 23 46 197 1180 2.79 179 9 18 381 2286
2020 0.07 6773 339 677 15 89 0.31 1608 80 161 51 307 0.93 535 27 54 169 1013 2.54 197 10 20 405 2431
2025 0.10 6814 341 681 14 86 0.33 1765 88 176 50 297 0.89 630 32 63 123 740 2.55 222 11 22 428 2566
2030 0.08 6257 313 626 13 81 0.28 1813 91 181 53 320 0.72 695 35 70 107 643 2.13 234 12 23 426 2555
2035 0.09 5525 276 552 13 81 0.27 1830 92 183 52 309 0.69 724 36 72 110 661 2.04 245 12 25 399 2395
RR = 0.9 2010 0.13 7799 390 780 10 63 0.54 1860 93 186 52 310 1.32 755 38 76 99 593 3.21 312 16 31 179 1071
2015 0.09 10702 535 1070 8 49 0.40 2486 124 249 33 199 1.09 918 46 92 94 565 2.79 359 18 36 183 1095
2020 0.07 13546 677 1355 7 43 0.31 3215 161 322 24 147 0.93 1071 54 107 81 486 2.54 394 20 39 194 1165
2025 0.10 13627 681 1363 7 41 0.33 3529 176 353 24 143 0.89 1261 63 126 59 354 2.55 444 22 44 205 1229
2030 0.08 12514 626 1251 6 39 0.28 3625 181 363 26 153 0.72 1390 70 139 51 308 2.13 469 23 47 204 1224
2035 0.09 11050 552 1105 6 39 0.27 3661 183 366 25 148 0.69 1448 72 145 53 317 2.04 490 25 49 191 1148

aRelative risk for mortality reduction by screening

bGastric cancer mortality rate fro 10 years

cNumber needed to screen

dNumber needed to recall

eNumber of life saved