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. 2019 Apr 23;10:1900. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — Global mean temperature simulations under the range of climate scenarios considered. Median GMST projections relative to pre-industrial 1850–1900 levels (thick lines) and the relevant 25–75% ranges (shaded areas) obtained from 100,000 runs of PAGE-ICE for all the climate scenarios considered, assuming the following legacy values of the PCF and SAF: zero permafrost emissions, constant SAF of 0.35 ± 0.05 W m⁻² K⁻¹. This serves as a base estimate for the subsequent analysis of the nonlinear PCF and SAF. Source data are provided as a Source Data file