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. 2019 Apr 23;10:1900. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — Additional warming due to the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks relative to their legacy values. Differences between the GMST effects of the nonlinear PCF and SAF, and the GMST effects of their constant legacy values, obtained using the new PCF and SAF emulators in PAGE-ICE for a PCF, b SAF and c combined PCF & SAF. The legacy PCF value is zero and the legacy SAF value is the black dashed line in Fig. 2. Thick lines: ensemble mean; shaded areas: ±1SD. The cases when the GMST effect of the feedbacks is not significant at the 5% level: SAF under NDCs and NDCs Partial at the turn of the 22nd century, SAF under BaU in the second half of the 21st century, PCF & SAF combined under NDCs Partial in the second half of the 23rd century, and PCF & SAF combined under BaU from the second half of the 22nd century onwards. Source data are provided as a Source Data file