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. 2019 Apr 23;10:1900. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 7 — Cumulative carbon emissions from the permafrost simulated using the dynamic emulator. Cumulative carbon emissions from thawing land permafrost for a CO₂ and b methane components simulated by the new statistical emulator of SiBCASA and JULES (equal weighting) under the chosen range of climate scenarios until the year 2300 (solid lines: mean; shaded areas: ±1SD). 100,000 Monte-Carlo runs of PAGE-ICE. Units: GtC. Note the difference in the Y-axis scale between the plots. Source data are provided as a Source Data file