Table 1 |.

Descriptions of sectoral impact analyses

Sectora	Summary of approach, key physical metrics and valuation	Adaptation simulated
Health
Air quality25	Temperature effects on future ozone concentrations and the resulting number of premature deaths are economically valued with the income-adjusted value of a statistical life (VSL)	None
Aeroallergens26	Change in oak pollen season length, exposure to pollen concentrations and the resulting number of asthma-related emergency department visit is economically valued via cost per visit	None
Extreme temperature mortality27	The number of premature deaths on projected population attributable to extreme hot and cold temperatures (in 49 major cities only) is economically valued with the income-adjusted VSL	Adjustment of mortality thresholds to include higher levels of capacityb
Labour28	Lost labour supply hours due to changes in hot and cold temperature, including extreme temperatures, are economically valued via lost wages scaled by economic growth	None, other than those adaptations represented in the observed period
West Nile virus29	The impact of temperature on the number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases is economically valued with the income-adjusted VSL and hospitalization costs	None
Harmful algal blooms30	Change in the occurrence and severity of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms is economically valued by lost consumer surplus from the number of reservoir recreational visits	None
Infrastructure
Roads31	The vulnerability of current paved, unpaved and gravel roads to future changes in temperature, precipitation and freeze-thaw cycles is economically valued by costs of repair or rehabilitation	Reactive or proactive repair or rehabilitation costs to maintain level of service
Bridges32	The vulnerability of current non-coastal bridges to future changes in peak water flow is economically valued by costs of repair or rehabilitation	Costs of proactive maintenance and repairs to maintain level of service
Rail33	The vulnerability of the current Class I rail network (passenger and freight, volume scaled by change in economic growth) to changes in temperature is economically valued by costs of delays and sensor installation	Reactive costs of reduced speed and traffic to railroad companies and to public, and proactive adaptation costs to install sensors
Alaska infrastructure34	The vulnerability of current roads, buildings, airports, railroads and pipelines to changes in permafrost thaw, freeze-thaw cycles, precipitation and precipitation-induced flooding is economically valued by costs of repairs, rehabilitation or reconstruction	Reactive and proactive adaptation expenditures to maintain level of service
Urban drainage35	Change in volume within the current urban drainage network (in 100 major cities only) due to changes in rainfall intensity and runoff is economically valued by costs of best management practices/offsets (for example, bioswales)	Proactive adaptation costs to implement stormwater best management practices
Coastal property36	The vulnerability of current on-shore property to sea-level rise and storm surge is economically valued by abandoned property values (scaled by changes in economic growth) and costs of protective adaptations	Abandonment, property elevation, beach nourishment and seawall construction
Electricity
Electricity demand and supply37	Changes in electricity demand (based on projected population and economic growth) and supply (including hydropower generation) in response to changes in temperature and flow are economically valued by system costs (capital, operations and maintenance, and fuel costs)	Changes in cooling and heating demands for residences and buildings
Water resources
Inland flooding38	Changes in the frequency of 100-year riverine flooding events are economically valued via damages to current assets located in floodplains (for example, buildings)	None
Water quality3,40	Changes in river, lake and reservoir water quality based on modelling of temperature, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen and total phosphorus are economically valued by willingness-to-pay estimates for offsetting changes in the water quality index	Water allocated to different sectors on the basis of available supply
Municipal and industrial water supply41	Changes in water supply to meet municipal indoor, municipal outdoor and industrial water demands (based on projected population) are economically valued by changes in consumer welfare	Water allocated to different sectors based on available supply
Winter recreation42	The impact of changes in snowpack on recreation visits for downhill skiing and snowboarding, cross-country skiing and snowmobiling is economically valued by lost recreation (lift ticket and entry prices)	Snow-making included as a response
Agriculture
Agriculture43	Impacts of changing climate conditions on yields of major US crops (for example, corn, soybean, wheat, alfalfa hay and cotton) are economically valued by change in producer, processor and consumer welfare	Landowners change crop mix, production practices and land allocation in response to yield changes
Ecosystems
Coral reefs44	Percentage change in shallow coral reef cover is economically valued by lost recreational value of visitors	Autonomous adaptation by coral types
Shellfish45	Effects of ocean acidification on growth rates of oysters, scallops, geoducks, quahogs and clams, with subsequent effects on shellfish supply, are economically valued by change in consumer welfare	Consumers switch shellfish purchases on the basis of changes in price/supply
Freshwater fish46,47	Change in the spatial distribution of suitable habitat for coldwater, warmwater and rough fish species inhabiting rivers and streams is economically valued by lost recreational value to anglers	Anglers shift target fish guilds on the basis of proximity and willingness to travel
Wildfire48–50	Change in terrestrial ecosystem vegetative cover and acres burned on non-agricultural, undeveloped lands is economically valued by change in wildfire response costs	None

^aSee Supplementary Table 3 for expanded information and additional references on each sectoral model.

^bA sensitivity analysis was conducted using assumptions that approximated higher physiological adaptation and increased availability of air-conditioning by setting the threshold temperature for extreme heat days equal to the observed threshold values for Dallas, Texas, the second warmest city in the analysis.