Table 1. Model fitting statistics and coefficients (R-sq = R square, BIC = Bayesian Information Criterion, SRMSE = standardized root mean square error, coefficient mean = log(relative risk), coefficient sd = standard error, 2.5 percentile = lower end of 95% credible interval of coefficient, 97.5 percentile = higher end of 95% credible interval of coefficient).
| Variable | R-sq | BIC | SRMSE | fixed effects | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coefficient mean | coefficient sd | 2.5 percentile | 97.5 percentile | ||||
| Null model | 0.064 | 1337.855 | 0.882 | -10.0739 | 0.0668 | -10.2084 | -9.9463 |
| Crude lag estimates | |||||||
| Den lag1 | 0.098 | 1246.184 | 0.865 | 0.2472 | 0.0196 | 0.2075 | 0.2844 |
| Den lag2 | 0.123 | 1244.557 | 0.854 | 0.2385 | 0.0194 | 0.1993 | 0.2757 |
| Den lag3 | 0.164 | 1213.810 | 0.833 | 0.2410 | 0.0178 | 0.2054 | 0.2754 |
| Den lag4 | 0.090 | 1262.592 | 0.869 | 0.1996 | 0.0191 | 0.1612 | 0.2363 |
| Den lag5 | 0.105 | 1270.408 | 0.862 | 0.1847 | 0.0191 | 0.1465 | 0.2215 |
| Den lag6 | 0.080 | 1278.772 | 0.874 | 0.1675 | 0.0186 | 0.1304 | 0.2034 |
| TW lag1 | 0.065 | 1337.276 | 0.881 | 4.2158 | 2.9655 | -1.8731 | 9.8080 |
| TW lag2 | 0.065 | 1337.581 | 0.881 | 4.0453 | 3.0282 | -2.1836 | 9.7437 |
| TW lag3 | 0.065 | 1337.596 | 0.881 | 4.2636 | 3.1498 | -2.1978 | 10.2092 |
| TW lag4 | 0.066 | 1337.292 | 0.881 | 4.7574 | 3.2264 | -1.8396 | 10.8690 |
| TW lag5 | 0.066 | 1336.294 | 0.881 | 5.7825 | 3.2885 | -0.9000 | 12.0587 |
| TW lag6 | 0.066 | 1336.181 | 0.881 | 6.0791 | 3.3850 | -0.7870 | 12.5534 |
| MI lag1 | 0.086 | 1237.947 | 0.871 | 14.7771 | 1.2940 | 12.2140 | 17.3077 |
| MI lag2 | 0.132 | 1224.506 | 0.849 | 15.1857 | 1.3731 | 12.5236 | 17.9179 |
| MI lag3 | 0.197 | 1198.824 | 0.817 | 15.6868 | 1.4773 | 12.8975 | 18.7013 |
| MI lag4 | 0.174 | 1221.191 | 0.828 | 14.4542 | 1.4724 | 11.6631 | 17.4517 |
| MI lag5 | 0.172 | 1220.364 | 0.829 | 13.8227 | 1.4964 | 11.0159 | 16.8935 |
| MI lag6 | 0.137 | 1230.597 | 0.847 | 11.1021 | 1.1871 | 8.8499 | 13.5165 |
| Adjusted lag estimates | |||||||
| Den lag1 Den lag2 Den lag3 Den lag4 Den lag5 Den lag6 |
0.201 | 1168.257 | 0.815 | 0.1080 0.0689 0.1136 0.0544 0.0326 0.0526 |
0.0288 0.0300 0.0282 0.0266 0.0263 0.0247 |
0.0503 0.0090 0.0574 0.0015 -0.0193 0.0035 |
0.1634 0.1267 0.1681 0.1058 0.0839 0.1005 |
| TW lag1 TW lag2 TW lag3 TW lag4 TW lag5 TW lag6 |
0.068 | 1340.723 | 0.880 | 0.1794 -9.0344 -10.4439 -4.4227 15.4022 15.9111 |
12.6758 14.7070 15.8923 15.8500 15.9844 14.9473 |
-24.7466 -38.1347 -41.8313 -35.7277 -16.1796 -13.5140 |
25.0110 19.6128 20.5637 26.5013 46.5789 45.1656 |
| MI lag1 MI lag2 MI lag3 MI lag4 MI lag5 MI lag6 |
0.217 | 1194.667 | 0.807 | 5.6002 4.6889 8.4452 6.1895 2.0293 -4.8919 |
3.7329 3.3112 3.6902 3.8815 4.3635 4.0121 |
-1.6199 -1.8357 1.2679 -1.6790 -6.9640 -13.1124 |
13.0294 11.1655 15.7461 13.5752 10.1850 2.6493 |
| Combined variable model | |||||||
| Den lag1 Den lag2 Den lag3 Den lag4 Den lag5 Den lag6 MI lag1 MI lag2 MI lag3 MI lag4 MI lag5 MI lag6 |
0.271 | 1140.838 | 0.778 | 0.0816 0.0485 0.0964 0.0510 0.0265 0.0445 3.2332 3.8463 7.0018 2.9156 0.5181 -4.5618 |
0.0302 0.0302 0.0279 0.0273 0.0269 0.0246 3.9101 3.6771 3.9220 4.1978 4.3102 3.9001 |
0.0213 -0.0118 0.0408 -0.0034 -0.0267 -0.0045 -4.3982 -3.4612 -0.7220 -5.6567 -8.3993 -12.5642 |
0.1398 0.1068 0.1505 0.1040 0.0788 0.0921 10.9449 10.9795 14.6739 10.8263 8.5290 2.7519 |