Abstract
Background
Calcineurin inhibitors (CNI) can reduce acute transplant rejection and immediate graft loss but are associated with significant adverse effects such as hypertension and nephrotoxicity which may contribute to chronic rejection. CNI toxicity has led to numerous studies investigating CNI withdrawal and tapering strategies. Despite this, uncertainty remains about minimisation or withdrawal of CNI.
Objectives
This review aimed to look at the benefits and harms of CNI tapering or withdrawal in terms of graft function and loss, incidence of acute rejection episodes, treatment‐related side effects (hypertension, hyperlipidaemia) and death.
Search methods
We searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Specialised Register to 11 October 2016 through contact with the Information Specialist using search terms relevant to this review. Studies contained in the Specialised Register are identified through search strategies specifically designed for CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE; handsearching conference proceedings; and searching the International Clinical Trials Register (ICTRP) Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov.
Selection criteria
All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) where drug regimens containing CNI were compared to alternative drug regimens (CNI withdrawal, tapering or low dose) in the post‐transplant period were included, without age or dosage restriction.
Data collection and analysis
Two authors independently assessed studies for eligibility, risk of bias, and extracted data. Results were expressed as risk ratio (RR) or mean difference (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).
Main results
We included 83 studies that involved 16,156 participants. Most were open‐label studies; less than 30% of studies reported randomisation method and allocation concealment. Studies were analysed as intent‐to‐treat in 60% and all pre‐specified outcomes were reported in 54 studies. The attrition and reporting bias were unclear in the remainder of the studies as factors used to judge bias were reported inconsistently. We also noted that 50% (47 studies) of studies were funded by the pharmaceutical industry.
We classified studies into four groups: CNI withdrawal or avoidance with or without substitution with mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors (mTOR‐I); and low dose CNI with or without mTOR‐I. The withdrawal groups were further stratified as avoidance and withdrawal subgroups for major outcomes.
CNI withdrawal may lead to rejection (RR 2.54, 95% CI 1.56 to 4.12; moderate certainty evidence), may make little or no difference to death (RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.24; moderate certainty), and probably slightly reduces graft loss (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.98; low quality evidence). Hypertension was probably reduced in the CNI withdrawal group (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.95; low certainty), while CNI withdrawal may make little or no difference to malignancy (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.30; low certainty), and probably makes little or no difference to cytomegalovirus (CMV) (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.45; low certainty)
CNI avoidance may result in increased acute rejection (RR 2.16, 95% CI 0.85 to 5.49; low certainty) but little or no difference in graft loss (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.16; low certainty). Late CNI withdrawal increased acute rejection (RR 3.21, 95% CI 1.59 to 6.48; moderate certainty) but probably reduced graft loss (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.97, low certainty).
Results were similar when CNI avoidance or withdrawal was combined with the introduction of mTOR‐I; acute rejection was probably increased (RR 1.43; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.78; moderate certainty) and there was probably little or no difference in death (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.69 to 1.36, moderate certainty). mTOR‐I substitution may make little or no difference to graft loss (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.19; low certainty), probably makes little of no difference to hypertension (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.15; moderate), and probably reduced the risk of cytomegalovirus (CMV) (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.82; moderate certainty) and malignancy (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.00; low certainty). Lymphoceles were increased with mTOR‐I substitution (RR 1.45, 95% CI 0.95 to 2.21; low certainty).
Low dose CNI combined with mTOR‐I probably increased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) (MD 6.24 mL/min, 95% CI 3.28 to 9.119; moderate certainty), reduced graft loss (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.02; moderate certainty), and made little or no difference to acute rejection (RR 1.13 ; 95% CI 0.91 to 1.40; moderate certainty). Hypertension was decreased (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.20; low certainty) as was CMV (RR 0.41, 95% CI 0.16 to 1.06; low certainty). Low dose CNI plus mTOR‐I makes probably makes little of no difference to malignancy (RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.42 to 3.53; low certainty) and may make little of no difference to death (RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.90; moderate certainty).
Authors' conclusions
CNI avoidance increased acute rejection and CNI withdrawal increases acute rejection but reduced graft loss at least over the short‐term. Low dose CNI with induction regimens reduced acute rejection and graft loss with no major adverse events, also in the short‐term. The use of mTOR‐I reduced CMV infections but increased the risk of acute rejection. These conclusions must be tempered by the lack of long‐term data in most of the studies, particularly with regards to chronic antibody‐mediated rejection, and the suboptimal methodological quality of the included studies.
Plain language summary
Calcineurin inhibitor withdrawal or tapering for kidney transplant recipients
What is the issue?
Calcineurin inhibitors (CNI, cyclosporin and tacrolimus) are an important part of treatment to suppress the immune system to prevent rejection of transplanted kidneys. However, CNI can cause high blood pressure and kidney scarring which contribute to worsening of risk factors for heart attack, stroke, and loss of the transplanted organ over time.
There are conflicting data on the results of withdrawing these drugs from kidney transplant recipients; some studies suggest improved kidney function but others report a moderate risk of developing rejection. Because of this uncertainty, we assessed the benefits and harms of CNI withdrawal or tapering in kidney transplant recipients to identify which approach was more beneficial.
What did we do? We included 83 studies that involved more than 16,000 people in our review. Studies which compared standard dose CNI regimens with withdrawal, tapering or low dose CNI in the post‐transplant period were analysed.
What did we find? Although withdrawing CNI treatment resulted in more rejections in the short term, there was no clear change in transplanted organ failure, death, development of cancer, or infections. Replacing CNI with another group of drugs ‐ the mTOR inhibitors ‐ did not significantly change outcomes, except for fewer cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections. Lower CNI dose was associated with fewer episodes of kidney transplant rejection and loss, but only in the first year to up to five years after the transplant.
Conclusions We found that the long‐term outcomes for stopping or gradually reducing CNI therapy were not clear, and that mTOR inhibitors can reduce CMV infections with a higher risk of acute rejection. There were insufficient studies with long term follow‐up to clearly determine which treatment is better for people who receive kidney transplants.
Summary of findings
Summary of findings for the main comparison. Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) withdrawal versus standard dose CNI for kidney transplant recipients.
CNI withdrawal versus standard dose CNI for kidney transplant recipients | |||||
Patient or population: kidney transplant recipients Intervention: CNI withdrawal Comparison: standard dose CNI | |||||
Outcomes | Anticipated absolute effects* (95% CI) | Relative effect (95% CI) | No. of participants (studies) | Quality of the evidence (GRADE) | |
Risk with standard dose CNI | Risk with CNI withdrawal | ||||
Death Follow‐up: range 9 months to 20 years | Study population | RR 1.09 (0.96 to 1.24) | 2010 (14 ) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 2 3 4 | |
225 per 1,000 | 245 per 1,000 (216 to 279) | ||||
Acute rejection Follow‐up: range 9 months to 15 years | Study population | RR 2.54 (1.56 to 4.12) | 1666 (15) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 2 4 5 6 | |
137 per 1,000 | 348 per 1,000 (214 to 564) | ||||
GFR Follow‐up: range 1 to 15 years | The mean GFR in the intervention group was 3.56 mL/min more (1.13 less to 8.25 more) than the control group |
‐ | 910 (8) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 7 8 | |
Graft loss Follow‐up: range 9 months to 20 years | Study population | RR 0.85 (0.74 to 0.98) | 2090 (16) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 1 2 9 10 11 12 | |
236 per 1,000 | 201 per 1,000 (175 to 231) | ||||
Adverse events: hypertension Follow‐up: range 1 to 15 years | Study population | RR 0.82 (0.71 to 0.95) | 950 (5 ) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 2 10 | |
555 per 1,000 | 455 per 1,000 (394 to 527) | ||||
Adverse events: CMV infection Follow‐up: range 9 months to 15 years | Study population | RR 0.87 (0.52 to 1.45) | 608 (7) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 1 2 10 | |
98 per 1,000 | 86 per 1,000 (51 to 143) | ||||
Adverse events: malignancy Follow‐up: range 1 to 15 years | Study population | RR 1.10 (0.93 to 1.30) | 1079 (6) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 1 2 4 10 | |
257 per 1,000 | 282 per 1,000 (239 to 334) | ||||
*The risk in the intervention group (and its 95% CI) is based on the assumed risk in the comparison group and the relative effect of the intervention (and its 95% CI). CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio | |||||
GRADE Working Group grades of evidence High quality: We are very confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of the effect Moderate quality: We are moderately confident in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of the effect, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different Low quality: Our confidence in the effect estimate is limited: The true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of the effect Very low quality: We have very little confidence in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be substantially different from the estimate of effect |
1 despite different follow up times, heterogeneity not noted on analysis
2 Most studies were ITT analysis, some small studies did not specify randomisation and allocation concealment
3 Larger studies closer to pooled estimate on funnel plot
4 Some studies were small with large confidence intervals, CI fails to exclude benefit or harm
5 Heterogeneity low when biopsy‐proven rejections were analysed in subgroup
6 Smaller studies not distributed around point estimate
7 Significant heterogeneity noted despite separating time periods of reporting GFR
8 Only few studies reported GFR with possible attrition bias
9 2 large studies had more than 2 comparison groups
10 Very few studies reported the outcome
11 Symmetric distribution studies around estimate of effect
12 2 studies with high event rates skew the effect
Summary of findings 2. Low dose calcineurin inhibitors (CNI) versus to standard dose CNI for kidney transplant recipients.
Low dose CNI versus standard dose CNI for kidney transplant recipients | ||||||
Patient or population: kidney transplant recipients Intervention: low dose CNI Comparison: standard dose CNI | ||||||
Outcomes | Anticipated absolute effects* (95% CI) | Relative effect (95% CI) | No. of participants (studies) | Quality of the evidence (GRADE) | Comments | |
Risk with standard dose CNI | Risk with low dose CNI | |||||
Death Follow‐up: range 6 months to 2 years | Study population | RR 0.79 (0.50 to 1.27) | 3462 (15) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 2 3 | ||
23 per 1,000 | 19 per 1,000 (12 to 30) | |||||
Acute rejection Follow‐up: range 6 months to 2 years | Study population | RR 0.87 (0.76 to 1.00) | 3757 (19) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 2 4 | ||
183 per 1,000 | 159 per 1,000 (139 to 183) | |||||
GFR Follow‐up: range 6 months to 2 years | The mean GFR in the intervention group was 4.1 mL/min more (2.07 more to 6.12 more) than the control group | ‐ | 2623 (13) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 5 6 7 | ||
Graft loss Follow‐up: range 6 months to 2 years | Study population | RR 0.75 (0.55 to 1.02) | 3286 (15) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 2 3 6 | Sensitivity analysis after excluding 1 study which also involved steroid withdrawal; significant reduction in graft loss in the low dose regimen | |
58 per 1,000 | 44 per 1,000 (32 to 60) | |||||
Adverse events: hypertension Follow‐up: range 6 months to 2 years | Study population | RR 0.84 (0.70 to 1.00) | 1877 (5) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 2 7 8 9 | ||
218 per 1,000 | 184 per 1,000 (153 to 218) | |||||
Adverse events: CMV infection Follow‐up: range 6 months to 2 years | Study population | RR 1.23 (0.94 to 1.62) | 1948 (6) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 2 8 10 | ||
101 per 1,000 | 124 per 1,000 (95 to 163) | |||||
Adverse events: malignancy Follow‐up: range 6 months to 2 years | Study population | RR 0.90 (0.41 to 1.97) | 1637 (5) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 2 3 9 | ||
15 per 1,000 | 14 per 1,000 (6 to 30) | |||||
*The risk in the intervention group (and its 95% CI) is based on the assumed risk in the comparison group and the relative effect of the intervention (and its 95% CI). CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio | ||||||
GRADE Working Group grades of evidence High quality: We are very confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of the effect Moderate quality: We are moderately confident in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of the effect, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different Low quality: Our confidence in the effect estimate is limited: The true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of the effect Very low quality: We have very little confidence in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be substantially different from the estimate of effect |
1 Most studies with ITT analysis, randomisation procedure and allocation concealment not clear from most publications
2 Minimal heterogeneity noted on analysis
3 Several small studies with wide confidence intervals
4 Despite studies with or without induction, sensitivity analysis made no difference to outcome
5 Heterogeneity noted only between subgroups
6 Only 2/15 studies had more than 2 comparison groups
7 Industry sponsored
8 1/6 studies did not report some outcomes due to high dropout
9 Only 5 studies reported the outcome and had wide CI
10 Few studies reported the outcome
Summary of findings 3. Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) withdrawal + mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitor (mTORi) versus standard dose CNI for kidney transplant recipients.
CNI withdrawal + mTORi versus standard dose CNI for kidney transplant recipients | |||||
Patient or population: kidney transplant recipients Intervention: CNI withdrawal + mTORi Comparison: standard dose CNI | |||||
Outcomes | Anticipated absolute effects* (95% CI) | Relative effect (95% CI) | No. of participants (studies) | Quality of the evidence (GRADE) | |
Risk with standard dose CNI | Risk with CNI withdrawal + mTOR | ||||
Death Follow‐up: range 6 months to 5 years | Study population | RR 0.99 (0.69 to 1.40) | 5427 (23) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 2 3 4 | |
26 per 1,000 | 26 per 1,000 (18 to 36) | ||||
Acute rejection Follow‐up: range 6 months to 5 years | Study population | RR 1.43 (1.15 to 1.78) | 5903 (30) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 3 4 5 | |
134 per 1,000 | 191 per 1,000 (154 to 238) | ||||
Graft loss Follow‐up: range 1 to 5 years | Study population | RR 0.94 (0.75 to 1.19) | 5446 (25) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 2 4 6 | |
53 per 1,000 | 50 per 1,000 (40 to 64) | ||||
Adverse events: hypertension Follow‐up: range 6 months to 5 years | Study population | RR 0.86 (0.64 to 1.15) | 2207 (7) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 7 8 | |
218 per 1,000 | 187 per 1,000 (139 to 250) | ||||
Adverse events: CMV Infection follow‐up: range 6 months to 5 years | Study population | RR 0.60 (0.44 to 0.82) | 2503 (13) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 9 10 | |
150 per 1,000 | 90 per 1,000 (66 to 123) | ||||
Adverse events: malignancy Follow‐up: range 6 months to 5 years | Study population | RR 0.69 (0.47 to 1.00) | 3699 (14) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 2 4 10 | |
54 per 1,000 | 38 per 1,000 (26 to 54) | ||||
Adverse events: lymphocele Follow‐up: range 6 months to 5 years | Study population | RR 1.45 (0.95 to 2.21) | 1926 (8) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 6 8 11 | |
100 per 1,000 | 144 per 1,000 (95 to 220) | ||||
*The risk in the intervention group (and its 95% CI) is based on the assumed risk in the comparison group and the relative effect of the intervention (and its 95% CI). CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio | |||||
GRADE Working Group grades of evidence High quality: We are very confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of the effect Moderate quality: We are moderately confident in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of the effect, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different Low quality: Our confidence in the effect estimate is limited: The true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of the effect Very low quality: We have very little confidence in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be substantially different from the estimate of effect |
1 Randomisation method and allocation concealment performed in most studies
2 No significant heterogeneity noted in analysis
3 Only 2 studies had more than 2 comparison arms
4 Many studies with small events and wide CI
5 Significant heterogeneity in studies in biopsy‐proven acute rejection
6 Funnel plot skewed
7 Significant heterogeneity noted
8 Few studies reported this outcome
9 Moderate heterogeneity but follow‐up times are variable
10 Not all studies reported the outcome
11 Heterogeneity is not significant when 1 long‐term study was excluded
Summary of findings 4. Low dose CNI calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) + mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitor (mTORi) versus standard dose CNI for kidney transplant recipients.
Low dose CNI + mTORi versus standard dose CNI for kidney transplant recipients | |||||
Patient or population: kidney transplant recipients Intervention: low dose CNI + mTORi Comparison: standard dose CNI | |||||
Outcomes | Anticipated absolute effects* (95% CI) | Relative effect (95% CI) | No. of participants (studies) | Quality of the evidence (GRADE) | |
Risk with standard dose CNI | Risk with low dose CNI + mTORi | ||||
Death Follow‐up: range 6 months to 3 years | Study population | RR 1.16 (0.71 to 1.90) | 2750 (11) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 2 3 4 | |
22 per 1,000 | 26 per 1,000 (16 to 42) | ||||
Acute rejection Follow‐up: range 6 months to 3 years | Study population | RR 1.13 (0.91 to 1.40) | 3300 (16) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 2 4 | |
132 per 1,000 | 149 per 1,000 (120 to 185) | ||||
GFR Follow‐up: range 6 months to 2 years | The mean GFR in the intervention group was 6.24 mL/min more (3.28 more to 9.19 more) than the control group | ‐ | 1749 (11) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 5 | |
Graft loss Follow‐up: range 6 months to 3 years | Study population | RR 0.67 (0.45 to 1.01) | 3304 (16) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 2 6 | |
38 per 1,000 | 25 per 1,000 (17 to 38) | ||||
Adverse events: hypertension Follow‐up: range 6 months to 2 years | Study population | RR 0.98 (0.80 to 1.20) | 1421 (5) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 7 8 | |
203 per 1,000 | 199 per 1,000 (162 to 243) | ||||
Adverse events: CMV infection Follow‐up: range 1 to 3 years | Study population | RR 0.41 (0.16 to 1.06) | 1250 (5) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 5 7 9 | |
105 per 1,000 | 43 per 1,000 (17 to 111) | ||||
Adverse events: malignancy Follow‐up: range 1 to 3 years | Study population | RR 1.22 (0.42 to 3.52) | 1074 (5) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 2 4 7 | |
11 per 1,000 | 14 per 1,000 (5 to 40) | ||||
*The risk in the intervention group (and its 95% CI) is based on the assumed risk in the comparison group and the relative effect of the intervention (and its 95% CI). CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio | |||||
GRADE Working Group grades of evidence High quality: We are very confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of the effect Moderate quality: We are moderately confident in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of the effect, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different Low quality: Our confidence in the effect estimate is limited: The true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of the effect Very low quality: We have very little confidence in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be substantially different from the estimate of effect |
1 Randomisation and allocation process not clear in some studies
2 No significant heterogeneity
3 Only 2 of the studies had more than 2 comparisons
4 Some small studies with wide CI
5 Substantial heterogeneity noted due to recording at different time periods
6 Small number of events and some small studies with wide CI
7 Only few studies reported this outcome
8 95% CI fails to exclude benefit or harm
9 Heterogeneity present but when abstract only studies are removed, heterogeneity is zero
Summary of findings 5. Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) avoidance and late CNI withdrawal versus standard dose CNI.
Subgroup analysis: CNI avoidance and late withdrawal versus standard dose CNI for kidney transplant recipients | |||||
Patient or population: kidney transplant recipients Intervention: CNI avoidance and late withdrawal Comparison: standard dose CNI | |||||
Outcomes | Anticipated absolute effects* (95% CI) | Relative effect (95% CI) | No. of participants (studies) | Quality of the evidence (GRADE) | |
Risk with standard dose CNI | Risk with CNI avoidance and withdrawal | ||||
Acute rejection: avoidance Follow‐up: range 1 to 12 years | Study population | RR 2.16 (0.85 to 5.49) | 238 (3) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 1 2 | |
344 per 1,000 | 744 per 1,000 (293 to 1,000) | ||||
Acute rejection: late withdrawal | Study population | RR 3.21 (1.59 to 6.48) | 1428 (12) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 3 | |
102 per 1,000 | 328 per 1,000 (162 to 661) | ||||
GFR: avoidance | The mean GFR for avoidance studies in the intervention group was 2.22 mL/min lower (14.84 less to 10.4 more) than the control group | ‐ | 242 (3) | ⊕⊝⊝⊝ VERY LOW 1 2 4 | |
GFR: late withdrawal | The mean GFR for late withdrawal studies in the intervention group was 5.54 mL/min more (1.66 more to 9.43 more) than the control group | ‐ | 668 (5) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 5 6 | |
Graft loss: avoidance | Study population | RR 0.96 (0.79 to 1.16) | 566 (4) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 7 8 | |
355 per 1,000 | 341 per 1,000 (281 to 412) | ||||
Graft loss: late withdrawal | Study population | RR 0.84 (0.72 to 0.97) | 1831 (13) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 3 9 10 | |
260 per 1,000 | 219 per 1,000 (187 to 252) | ||||
*The risk in the intervention group (and its 95% CI) is based on the assumed risk in the comparison group and the relative effect of the intervention (and its 95% CI). CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio | |||||
GRADE Working Group grades of evidence High quality: We are very confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of the effect Moderate quality: We are moderately confident in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of the effect, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different Low quality: Our confidence in the effect estimate is limited: The true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of the effect Very low quality: We have very little confidence in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be substantially different from the estimate of effect |
1 3 small studies with one study including a non‐randomised arm
2 Significant heterogeneity
3 Several small studies with wide confidence intervals
4 Small numbers to make a judgement of difference
5 Skewed funnel plot
6 Substantial heterogeneity
7 2/4 are small studies with wide CI
8 4 studies included with one study with high event rate
9 No heterogeneity identified on analysis
10 Larger studies are not industry sponsored
Summary of findings 6. Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) avoidance and late withdrawal with mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitor (mTORi) versus standard dose CNI.
Subgroup analysis: CNI avoidance and late withdrawal + mTORi versus standard dose CNI for kidney transplant recipients | |||||
Patient or population: kidney transplant recipients Intervention: CNI avoidance and late withdrawal + mTORi Comparison: standard dose CNI | |||||
Outcomes | Anticipated absolute effects* (95% CI) | Relative effect (95% CI) | No. of participants (studies) | Quality of the evidence (GRADE) | |
Risk with standard dose CNI | Risk with CNI avoidance and withdrawal + mTORi | ||||
Acute rejection: avoidance Follow‐up: range 6 months to 3 years | Study population | RR 1.27 (0.98 to 1.65) | 1844 (11) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 | |
234 per 1,000 | 297 per 1,000 (229 to 386) | ||||
Acute rejection: late withdrawal Follow‐up: range 6 months to 5 years | Study population | RR 1.90 (1.44 to 2.51) | 3636 (17) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 | |
65 per 1,000 | 124 per 1,000 (94 to 163) | ||||
GFR: avoidance Follow‐up: range 6 months to 3 years | The mean GFR for avoidance studies in the intervention group was 6.45 mL/min higher (1.33 higher to 11.58 higher) than the control group | ‐ | 1748 (9) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 1 2 | |
GFR: late withdrawal Follow‐up: range 6 months to 5 years | The mean GFR for late withdrawal studies in the intervention group was MD 4.55 higher (0.26 higher to 8.85 higher) than for control group | ‐ | 2679 (14) | ⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOW 1 2 | |
Graft loss: avoidance | Study population | RR 1.03 (0.72 to 1.48) | 1420 (8) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 | |
74 per 1,000 | 76 per 1,000 (53 to 110) | ||||
Graft loss: late withdrawal | Study population | RR 0.92 (0.65 to 1.30) | 4026 (17) | ⊕⊕⊕⊝ MODERATE 1 2 | |
46 per 1,000 | 42 per 1,000 (30 to 59) | ||||
*The risk in the intervention group (and its 95% CI) is based on the assumed risk in the comparison group and the relative effect of the intervention (and its 95% CI). CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio | |||||
GRADE Working Group grades of evidence High quality: We are very confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of the effect Moderate quality: We are moderately confident in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of the effect, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different Low quality: Our confidence in the effect estimate is limited: The true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of the effect Very low quality: We have very little confidence in the effect estimate: The true effect is likely to be substantially different from the estimate of effect |
1 Several smaller studies with wide CI
2 Significant heterogeneity
Background
Description of the condition
Standard immunosuppressive protocols to prevent acute graft rejection in kidney transplantation involve three major groups of drugs ‐ calcineurin inhibitor(s) (CNI), antimetabolites and steroids. CNI have been an important part of primary immunosuppression therapy together with adjunctive agents such as mycophenolate mofetil (MMF), azathioprine (AZA) and steroids in kidney transplant recipients (Hariharan 2000).
CNI inhibit the calcium‐dependent enzyme serine phosphatase calcineurin. This process prevents the dephosphorylation of nuclear factors of activated T lymphocytes (NFAT), which is essential for translocation into the nucleus leading to reduced activation of cytokine genes for interleukin‐2 (IL2) production. Cyclosporin (CsA) and tacrolimus (TAC) are CNI used for kidney transplant recipients (Melk 2003).
Description of the intervention
CNI have dramatically reduced the incidence of acute transplant rejection and decreased early graft loss (Ahsan 2001). However, CNI have been associated with significant adverse effects such as nephrotoxicity (Bennett 1996) causing decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR), hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and a significant contribution to chronic allograft nephropathy. These effects could lead to subsequent graft loss and contribute directly or indirectly to patient morbidity and mortality by affecting the cardiovascular risk factors (Kasiske 1996). The immunological causes of graft loss have to be however considered. The potential risks of CNI use should be balanced against the risks of acute rejection and chronic antibody‐mediated rejection, especially in patients with a high immunological risk.
How the intervention might work
The significant toxicity profile of CNI have prompted many studies investigating CNI withdrawal and tapering strategies. However, some highlighted an increase in acute rejection following withdrawal (Abramowicz 2002) and others showed no effect on graft survival and a short term improvement in creatinine values (Gonwa 2002).
Why it is important to do this review
Despite the large number of studies conducted, uncertainty remains about tapering or withdrawing CNI. These strategies must be balanced with the significant benefits conferred by CNI in preventing early graft rejection. In the absence of a clear clinical consensus, this review aimed to assess the benefits and harms of CNI withdrawal or tapering for kidney transplant recipients.
Objectives
This review aimed to look at the benefits and harms of CNI tapering or withdrawal in terms of graft function and loss, incidence of acute rejection episodes, treatment‐related side effects (hypertension, hyperlipidaemia) and death.
Methods
Criteria for considering studies for this review
Types of studies
All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) where standard dose CNI regimens were compared with CNI withdrawal or tapering for kidney transplant recipients were included. The first period of randomised cross‐over studies were also included.
Types of participants
Inclusion criteria
Patients with end‐stage kidney disease (ESKD), irrespective of age or gender, who received a first or subsequent cadaveric or living donor kidney transplant and received CNI (CsA or TAC) as the primary immunosuppression, were included.
Exclusion criteria
Recipients who received another solid organ in addition to a kidney transplant (e.g. pancreas) were excluded.
Types of interventions
Transplant recipients who received CNI (CsA or TAC) as the primary immunosuppression which was subsequently tapered or withdrawn completely were included.
All studies where tapering or withdrawal was compared with controls were included irrespective of the duration of treatment prior to the intervention. In cases of significant heterogeneity, subgroup analysis was performed.
All definitions of tapering mentioned in the studies were included irrespective of the duration of tapering; sensitivity analysis was used to differentiate between the tapering groups.
Studies that defined low dose either by exposure to CsA and TAC calculated using 12‐hour post‐dose nadir (trough; C0) blood levels, or studies which employed fixed doses (mg/kg) were included.
Specific comparisons were made between:
Standard dose CNI versus CNI withdrawal
Low dose CNI versus standard dose CNI
CNI withdrawal with conversion to mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitor (mTOR‐I) versus standard dose CNI
Low dose CNI with conversion to mTOR‐I versus normal dose CNI.
In case of significant heterogeneity among interventions, subgroup analysis was carried out in:
Duration of tapering or withdrawal
AZA and MMF groups.
Types of outcome measures
Graft loss (censored and not censored for death)
All‐cause mortality
Acute rejection episodes: both clinical and biopsy‐proven acute rejection (BPAR) were included
Graft kidney function at six months and at one, two and five years measured by serum creatinine (SCr), calculated GFR or creatinine clearance (CrCl)
Treatment‐related side effects (e.g. hyperlipidaemia, hypertension)
Rates of malignancy
Incidence of infections.
Search methods for identification of studies
Electronic searches
We searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Specialised Register to 11 October 2016 through contact with the Information Specialist using search terms relevant to this review. The Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Specialised Register contains studies identified from the following sources.
Monthly searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials CENTRAL
Weekly searches of MEDLINE OVID SP
Handsearching of kidney‐related journals and the proceedings of major kidney conferences
Searching of the current year of EMBASE OVID SP
Weekly current awareness alerts for selected kidney journals
Searches of the International Clinical Trials Register (ICTRP) Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov.
Studies contained in the Specialised Register are identified through search strategies for CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE based on the scope of Cochrane Kidney and Transplant. Details of these strategies, as well as a list of handsearched journals, conference proceedings and current awareness alerts, are available in the Specialised Register section of information about Cochrane Kidney and Transplant.
See Appendix 1 for search terms used in strategies for this review.
Searching other resources
Reference lists of review articles, relevant studies and clinical practice guidelines.
Letters seeking information about unpublished or incomplete trials to investigators known to be involved in previous studies.
Data collection and analysis
Selection of studies
The search strategy described was used to obtain titles and abstracts of studies that were relevant to the review. Titles and abstracts were screened independently by two authors, who discarded studies that were not applicable; however, studies and reviews that included relevant data or information on trials were retained initially. The same two authors independently assessed retrieved abstracts, and if necessary, the full text of studies which satisfied the inclusion criteria. Studies reported in non‐English language journals were translated before assessment. Discrepancies were resolved by discussion with a third author.
Data extraction and management
Data extraction was carried out independently by the same authors using standard data extraction forms. Where more than one publication of one study existed, reports were grouped together and the most recent or most complete data set were used. Any discrepancies between published versions were highlighted.
Assessment of risk of bias in included studies
The following items were independently assessed by two authors using the risk of bias assessment tool (Higgins 2011) (see Appendix 2).
Was there adequate sequence generation (selection bias)?
Was allocation adequately concealed (selection bias)?
-
Was knowledge of the allocated interventions adequately prevented during the study?
Participants and personnel (performance bias)
Outcome assessors (detection bias)
Were incomplete outcome data adequately addressed (attrition bias)?
Are reports of the study free of suggestion of selective outcome reporting (reporting bias)?
Was the study apparently free of other problems that could put it at a risk of bias?
Measures of treatment effect
Results for dichotomous outcomes (e.g. incidence of acute rejections, graft loss, death) results were expressed as risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where continuous scales of measurement were used to assess the effects of treatment (e.g. blood pressure, SCr, GFR), the mean difference (MD) was used, or the standardised mean difference (SMD) if different scales were used.
Dealing with missing data
Further information required from the original author was requested by written correspondence and any relevant information obtained in this manner was included in the review.
Assessment of heterogeneity
Heterogeneity was analysed using a Cochran Q test on N‐1 degrees of freedom, with an alpha of 0.05 used for statistical significance and with the I² test (Higgins 2003). In case of significant heterogeneity, subgroup analysis was considered.
Data synthesis
Data were pooled using the random‐effects model but the fixed‐effect model was also analysed to ensure robustness of the model chosen and susceptibility to outliers.
Subgroup analysis and investigation of heterogeneity
Subgroup analysis was used to explore possible sources of heterogeneity (e.g. interventions and study quality). Heterogeneity among participants could be related to age and renal pathology. Heterogeneity in treatments could be related to prior agent(s) used, the agent (CsA/TAC) and duration of therapy prior to withdrawal or tapering. Adverse effects are tabulated and assessed with descriptive techniques, as they are likely to be different for the various agents used.
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis was used to differentiate between tapering groups.
'Summary of findings' tables
We presented the main results of the review in 'Summary of findings' tables. These tables present key information concerning the quality of the evidence, the magnitude of the effects of the interventions examined, and the sum of the available data for the main outcomes (Schünemann 2011a). The 'Summary of findings' tables also include an overall grading of the evidence related to each of the main outcomes using the GRADE (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) approach (GRADE 2008). The GRADE approach defines the quality of a body of evidence as the extent to which one can be confident that an estimate of effect or association is close to the true quantity of specific interest. The quality of a body of evidence involves consideration of within‐trial risk of bias (methodological quality), directness of evidence, heterogeneity, precision of effect estimates and risk of publication bias (Schünemann 2011b). We presented the following outcomes in the 'Summary of findings' tables.
Death
Graft loss
Acute rejection
GFR
Adverse events (e.g. hypertension, CMV infection, malignancy).
Results
Description of studies
Results of the search
Our search identified 2398 records. After title and abstract review we excluded 1605 records. The remaining 793 records were for 159 studies. We included only studies that compared standard dose CNI with tapering or withdrawal with or without mTOR‐I substitution which resulted in 83 studies (583 reports) being included in the analyses. We excluded 72 studies (202 records). Four studies (8 records) are ongoing (David‐Neto 2014; ERIC Study 2010; ISRCTN63298320; TRANSFORM Study 2013) and will be assessed in a future update of this review. See Figure 1.
Included studies
See Characteristics of included studies.
The 83 studies included 16,156 randomised participants. Of these, 13 studies were available only in abstract form (2345 participants) (Alsina 1987; Bertoni 2007; Cockfield 2002; El‐Agroudy 2014; Heering 1993; HERAKLES Study 2012; Holm 2008; Kreis 2003; MODIFY Study 2012; Pacheco‐Silva 2013; Qazi 2014; Rossini 2007; Salvadori 2007).
CNI withdrawal or avoidance versus standard dose CNI regimens
We found 17 studies (81 reports, 1939 participants) that compared CNI withdrawal or avoidance with standard dose CNI regimens; four studies compared avoidance with standard dose CNI regimens (Asberg 2006; Garcia 2007; Grimbert 2002; Kosch 2003a), and one study with three arms and compared avoidance and withdrawal with standard dose CNI (Hall 1988). The remainder compared CNI withdrawal with standard dose CNI regimen.
Garcia 2007 and CTOT‐09 Study 2015 investigated TAC; two studies involved patients on either CsA or TAC (Pascual 2008; Suwelack 2002), and the remainder were CsA‐based studies (Abramowicz 2002; Asberg 2006; Dudley 2005; Grimbert 2002; Hall 1988; Hazzan 2005; Heering 1993; Hollander 1995; Isoniemi 1990; Kosch 2003a; MacPhee 1998; Pedersen 1991; Smak Gregoor 1999).
Standard versus low dose CNI
We included 18 studies (89 reports, 2904 participants) that compared standard dose CNI with low dose CNI. Of these, 15 were CsA‐based studies (Alsina 1987; Andres 2009; Baczkowska 2003; Budde 2007; Cai 2014; Chadban 2013; Cibrik 2007; de Sevaux 2001; DICAM Study 2010, Fangmann 2010; Ferguson 2006; Kreis 2003; Pascual 2003; REFERENCE Study 2006; Salvadori 2007); two investigated TAC (Chan 2012; MODIFY Study 2012); and OPTICEPT Study 2009 included either TAC or CsA. Of these, 12 studies involved introduction of low dose CNI regimen early in the post‐transplant period and six introduced low dose CNI later in the post‐transplant period (Cibrik 2007; DICAM Study 2010; Kreis 2003; MODIFY Study 2012; Pascual 2003; REFERENCE Study 2006).
Standard dose CNI versus CNI withdrawal or avoidance with mTOR‐I substitution
There were 29 studies (252 reports, 5012 participants) that compared standard dose CNI with CNI withdrawal or avoidance combined with mTOR‐I substitution (APOLLO Study 2015; Bansal 2013; Barsoum 2007; CALFREE Study 2010; CENTRAL Study 2012; CERTITEM Study 2015; Chhabra 2013; CONCEPT Study 2009; CONVERT Trial 2009; El‐Agroudy 2014; Flechner‐318 Study 2002; Grinyo 2004; Holm 2008; Martinez‐Mier 2006; Nafar 2012; ORION Study 2011; Pacheco‐Silva 2013; Pontrelli 2008; Rivelli 2015; RMR Study 2001; Rossini 2007; Schaefer 2006; SMART TX Study 2010; Spare‐the‐Nephron Study 2011; Stallone 2003; Stallone 2004; Stegall 2003; Watson 2005; ZEUS Study 2011). Of these, nine compared CNI avoidance with mTOR‐I substitution versus conventional CNI regimen (CENTRAL Study 2012; Nafar 2012; Stegall 2003; Schaefer 2006; Barsoum 2007; CALFREE Study 2010; Flechner‐318 Study 2002; Martinez‐Mier 2006,SMART TX Study 2010). The rest looked at delayed CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I substitution.
We included only five studies that investigated everolimus (APOLLO Study 2015; CENTRAL Study 2012; CERTITEM Study 2015; Pacheco‐Silva 2013; ZEUS Study 2011); the remainder investigated sirolimus. The CNI studied were:
TAC (eight studies: Chhabra 2013; El‐Agroudy 2014; Grinyo 2004; ORION Study 2011; Pacheco‐Silva 2013; Rivelli 2015; Schaefer 2006; Stegall 2003)
CsA (13 studies: Barsoum 2007; CALFREE Study 2010; CERTITEM Study 2015; CONCEPT Study 2009; Flechner‐318 Study 2002; Holm 2008; Martinez‐Mier 2006; CENTRAL Study 2012; Nafar 2012; RMR Study 2001; SMART TX Study 2010; Stallone 2003; ZEUS Study 2011)
TAC or CsA (seven studies: APOLLO Study 2015; Bansal 2013; CONVERT Trial 2009; Holm 2008; Spare‐the‐Nephron Study 2011; Rossini 2007; Stallone 2004; Watson 2005).
Standard dose CNI versus low dose CNI and mTOR‐I
We identified 14 studies (80 reports, 3110 participants) that compared standard dose CNI with combination of low dose CNI and mTOR‐I; (Bechstein‐193 2013; Bertoni 2007; Bertoni 2011; Chan 2008; Cockfield 2002; Muhlbacher 2014; Nashan 2004; Oh 2012; Paoletti 2012; Qazi 2014; Russ 2003; Takahashi 2013a; Tedesco‐Silva 2010; Velosa‐212 Study 2001). Interventions were administered immediately post‐transplant in all studies.
There were nine studies that investigated everolimus as the mTOR‐I (Bertoni 2007; Bertoni 2011; Chan 2008; Nashan 2004; Oh 2012; Paoletti 2012; Qazi 2014; Takahashi 2013a; Tedesco‐Silva 2010); the remainder looked at sirolimus. TAC (CNI) was studied in five studies (Bechstein‐193 2013; Chan 2008; Cockfield 2002; Qazi 2014; Russ 2003) and the rest of the studies used CsA.
Low versus normal dose CNI with or without mTOR‐I (mixed studies)
Five studies (83 reports, 3191 participants) had more than two arms and compared low dose versus normal dose CNI with or without mTOR‐I (ASCERTAIN Study 2011; CAESAR Study 2007; HERAKLES Study 2012; MECANO Study 2009; SYMPHONY Study 2007). Each were split to form two studies comparing low dose or withdrawal with or without mTOR‐I.
Reporting of outcomes was variable, and definitions of outcomes were unclear in most studies. Acute rejection episodes were reported as biopsy proven (56 studies) or unspecified/mixed (19 studies). Most reported graft loss or failure (68 studies) and GFR (52 studies). Methods used to determine GFR varied: 15 studies applied the Nankivell formula; 17 used Cockcroft‐Gault; 12 used MDRD; six used nuclear GFR (iothalamate or Cr EDTA); and four did not state the method used. CMV infection rates were reported in 30 studies and malignancy rates were reported in 29 studies.
Excluded studies
We excluded 72 studies following full text assessment: two studies included populations that did not match our inclusion criteria; 62 investigated interventions that were not relevant to this review; four measured outcomes not relevant to this review; two were incomplete studies that stopped early; one was only published as an abstract 35 years ago; and one study converted patients from TAC to sirolimus, however 40% we converted back to TAC. See Characteristics of excluded studies.
This review excluded studies involving Belatacept as the intervention assessed efficacy of the new biologic agent rather than CNI withdrawal. The Belatacept studies has been analysed and published recently (Mason 2014).
Risk of bias in included studies
Study methodology reporting was incomplete in most studies. Randomisation methods and allocation concealment were clearly described in fewer than 50% of studies. Most were open‐label studies. Intention‐to‐treat (ITT) analysis was either not reported or did not contain adequate information in 20% of studies to assess reporting bias. Seven studies did not report all possible outcomes due to early termination. Details are summarised below and in Figure 2.
Allocation
Random sequence generation
Randomisation methods were reported in detail in 27 studies (APOLLO Study 2015; ASCERTAIN Study 2011; Bansal 2013; CAESAR Study 2007; Cai 2014; CENTRAL Study 2012; Chan 2012; Cibrik 2007; CONCEPT Study 2009; CONVERT Trial 2009; DICAM Study 2010; Dudley 2005; Fangmann 2010; Flechner‐318 Study 2002; Grinyo 2004; Hall 1988; MacPhee 1998; MECANO Study 2009; Paoletti 2012; REFERENCE Study 2006; Rivelli 2015; SMART TX Study 2010; Spare‐the‐Nephron Study 2011; SYMPHONY Study 2007; Takahashi 2013a; Watson 2005; ZEUS Study 2011). Three studies were judged to be at high risk of bias; Pedersen 1991 randomised alternate participants to intervention and control groups, and Garcia 2007 and Schaefer 2006 included a third non‐randomised arm to the studies. The remaining 53 studies did not report randomisation methods.
Allocation concealment
Methods of allocation concealment were adequate in 25 studies (Abramowicz 2002; APOLLO Study 2015; Bansal 2013; CAESAR Study 2007; CENTRAL Study 2012; Chan 2008; Cibrik 2007; CONVERT Trial 2009; de Sevaux 2001; DICAM Study 2010; Dudley 2005; Fangmann 2010; Hall 1988; Isoniemi 1990; MacPhee 1998; MECANO Study 2009; Paoletti 2012; REFERENCE Study 2006; Smak Gregoor 1999; SMART TX Study 2010; Spare‐the‐Nephron Study 2011; SYMPHONY Study 2007; Tedesco‐Silva 2010; Watson 2005; ZEUS Study 2011). Five studies were judged to be at high risk of bias (Barsoum 2007; Garcia 2007; Grinyo 2004; OPTICEPT Study 2009; Schaefer 2006) and the method of allocation concealment was not reported or unclear in 53 studies.
Blinding
Almost all studies were open‐label. Ferguson 2006 reported blinding of investigators and participants in one part of the study, and four studies (Cibrik 2007; DICAM Study 2010; Oh 2012; Rivelli 2015) reported blinding of outcome investigators.
Incomplete outcome data
Outcome data was reported or analysed as Intention‐ to‐treat in (ITT) in 55 studies (Abramowicz 2002; Andres 2009; APOLLO Study 2015; ASCERTAIN Study 2011; Bansal 2013; Barsoum 2007; Bertoni 2011; Budde 2007; CAESAR Study 2007; Cai 2014; CALFREE Study 2010; CENTRAL Study 2012; Chadban 2013; Chan 2008; Chhabra 2013; Cibrik 2007; CONCEPT Study 2009; CTOT‐09 Study 2015; de Sevaux 2001; DICAM Study 2010; El‐Agroudy 2014; Fangmann 2010; Ferguson 2006; Flechner‐318 Study 2002; Garcia 2007; Grimbert 2002; Hall 1988; Hazzan 2005; HERAKLES Study 2012; Hollander 1995; Isoniemi 1990; Kosch 2003a; MacPhee 1998; Martinez‐Mier 2006; MODIFY Study 2012; Oh 2012; Paoletti 2012; Pascual 2003; Pontrelli 2008; Qazi 2014; REFERENCE Study 2006; Rivelli 2015; RMR Study 2001; Salvadori 2007; Smak Gregoor 1999; SMART TX Study 2010; Spare‐the‐Nephron Study 2011; Stallone 2003; Stegall 2003; Suwelack 2002; SYMPHONY Study 2007; Takahashi 2013a; Tedesco‐Silva 2010; Velosa‐212 Study 2001; Watson 2005; ZEUS Study 2011).
There was missing outcome data in seven studies (CENTRAL Study 2012; Cockfield 2002; Holm 2008; Heering 1993; Muhlbacher 2014; OPTICEPT Study 2009).
Attrition bias was judged to be unclear for the remaining 21 studies.
Selective reporting
There were 54 studies that reported prespecified outcomes (Abramowicz 2002; Andres 2009; APOLLO Study 2015; ASCERTAIN Study 2011; Bansal 2013; Barsoum 2007; Bertoni 2007; Bertoni 2011; Budde 2007; CAESAR Study 2007; Cai 2014; CENTRAL Study 2012; Chadban 2013; Chan 2008; Chan 2012; Chhabra 2013; Cibrik 2007; CONCEPT Study 2009; CONVERT Trial 2009; de Sevaux 2001; DICAM Study 2010; Dudley 2005; Fangmann 2010; Ferguson 2006; Flechner‐318 Study 2002; Garcia 2007; Grinyo 2004; Hall 1988; HERAKLES Study 2012; Isoniemi 1990; Kosch 2003a; MacPhee 1998; MODIFY Study 2012; Nashan 2004; Oh 2012; Pacheco‐Silva 2013; Pascual 2003; Pascual 2008; Qazi 2014; Pontrelli 2008; RMR Study 2001; Russ 2003; Salvadori 2007; Smak Gregoor 1999; SMART TX Study 2010; Spare‐the‐Nephron Study 2011; Stallone 2003; Stallone 2004; Pontrelli 2008; Suwelack 2002; SYMPHONY Study 2007; Takahashi 2013a; Tedesco‐Silva 2010; Watson 2005; ZEUS Study 2011).
Eight studies were judged to be at high risk of reporting bias. Three studies did not report all possible outcomes due to early termination (CTOT‐09 Study 2015; MECANO Study 2009; ORION Study 2011). Cockfield 2002 and CERTITEM Study 2015 did not report all prespecified outcomes. Full‐text publications had not been identified for three studies 10 years after the abstracts were first published (Holm 2008; Rossini 2007; Salvadori 2007).
Twenty four studies had insufficient information to ascertain reporting bias.
Other potential sources of bias
Of the 83 included studies, 49 received pharmaceutical industry funding, which is a potential source for bias (Abramowicz 2002; Andres 2009; APOLLO Study 2015; Asberg 2006; ASCERTAIN Study 2011; Bansal 2013; Bechstein‐193 2013; Budde 2007; CAESAR Study 2007; Cai 2014; CALFREE Study 2010; CENTRAL Study 2012; CERTITEM Study 2015; Chadban 2013; Chan 2008; Chan 2012; Chhabra 2013; Cibrik 2007; CONCEPT Study 2009; CONVERT Trial 2009; de Sevaux 2001; Dudley 2005; Ferguson 2006; Flechner‐318 Study 2002; Grinyo 2004; Hall 1988; MECANO Study 2009; Muhlbacher 2014; Nashan 2004; Oh 2012; OPTICEPT Study 2009; ORION Study 2011; Pascual 2003; Pascual 2008; Qazi 2014; REFERENCE Study 2006; RMR Study 2001; Russ 2003; Smak Gregoor 1999; SMART TX Study 2010; Spare‐the‐Nephron Study 2011; Stegall 2003; Suwelack 2002; SYMPHONY Study 2007; Takahashi 2013a; Tedesco‐Silva 2010; Velosa‐212 Study 2001; Watson 2005; ZEUS Study 2011).
In two studies, one study arm was terminated due to increased rates of acute rejection (MECANO Study 2009; ORION Study 2011) and in Heering 1993 and CTOT‐09 Study 2015 the studies were stopped due to increased acute rejections in the CNI withdrawal group.
Garcia 2007 included a third group of non‐randomised patients after the interim analysis of randomised patients.
Only preliminary data were reported in Cockfield 2002 and Muhlbacher 2014.
There was a high drop‐out rate in four studies (Grinyo 2004; OPTICEPT Study 2009, Stegall 2003, Tedesco‐Silva 2010) which resulted in protocol amendment in Grinyo 2004.
Effects of interventions
See: Table 1; Table 2; Table 3; Table 4; Table 5; Table 6
CNI withdrawal (avoidance or late withdrawal) versus standard dose CNI
There was little or no difference in patient death between CNI withdrawal and standard dose CNI regimens (Analysis 1.1 (14 studies 2010 participants): RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.24; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty evidence).
Acute rejection episodes were higher with CNI withdrawal whether diagnosed by biopsy or clinically (Analysis 1.2 (15 studies, 1666 participants): RR 2.54, 95% CI 1.56 to 4.12; I2 = 70%; moderate certainty). However GFR increased (Analysis 1.3 (8 studies, 910 participants): MD 3.56 mL/min, 95% CI ‐1.25 to 8.25; I2 = 66%; low certainty) and graft loss decreased (Analysis 1.4 (16 studies, 2090 participants): RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.98; I2 = 0%; low certainty) with CNI withdrawal.
There was 18% reduction in hypertension noted with CNI withdrawal (Analysis 1.6.1 (5 studies, 950 participants): RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.95; I2 = 36%; low certainty). There was no differences in incidences of hyperlipidaemia (Analysis 1.6.2 (3 studies, 562 participants): RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.21; I2 = 2%), CMV infection (Analysis 1.6.3 (7 studies, 608 participants): RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.45; I2 = 0%; low certainty), diabetes mellitus (Analysis 1.6.4 (6 studies, 810 participants): RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.42; I2 = 0%), malignancy (Analysis 1.6.5 (6 studies, 1079 participants): RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.936 to 1.30; I2 = 0%; low certainty), or total infections (Analysis 1.6.6 (6 studies, 724 participants): RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.51; I2 = 46%) between the groups.
Subgroup analyses
CNI avoidance versus standard dose CNI
There was more acute rejection episodes in CNI avoidance compared with standard dose CNI (Analysis 1.7.1 (3 studies, 238 participants): RR 2.16, 95% CI 0.85 to 5.49; I2 = 84%, low certainity). However, there was no difference in death (Analysis 1.1.1 (4 studies, 566 participants): RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.32; I2 = 0%), GFR (Analysis 1.8.1 (3 studies, 242 participant): MD ‐2.22 mL/min, 95% CI ‐14.84 to 10.40; I2 = 84%, very low certainity), and graft loss (Analysis 1.9.1 (4 studies, 566 participants): RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.16; I2 = 0%, low certainity).
Late withdrawal versus standard dose CNI
Analysis of late withdrawal studies indicated that there was no difference in death (Analysis 1.1.2 (10 studies, 1444 participants): RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.29; I2 = 0%), however acute rejection episodes were higher in CNI withdrawal group (Analysis 1.7.2 (12 studies, 1428 participants): RR 3.21, 95% CI 1.59 to 6.48; I2 = 66%, moderate certainity). GFR was higher (Analysis 1.8.2 (5 studies, 668 participants): MD 5.54 mL/min, 95% CI 1.66 to 9.43; I2 = 29%, low certainity) and there was less graft loss (Analysis 1.9.2 (13 studies, 1848 participants): RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.97; I2 = 0%, low certainity) in the CNI withdrawal group.
Type of antimetabolite (MMF/MPA or AZA)
Subgroup analysis on antimetabolites found a higher acute rejection episodes associated with CNI withdrawal compared with standard dose CNI in the MMF/MPA studies (Analysis 2.1.1 (10 studies, 1110 participants): RR 3.51, 95% CI 1.79 to 6.88; I2 = 65%) but not in AZA studies (Analysis 2.1.2 (5 studies, 556 participants): RR 1.81, 95% CI 0.78 to 4.19; I2 = 72%).
Type of CNI (CsA or TAC)
When classified by CNI type, acute rejection episodes increased in the withdrawal arm of CsA studies (Analysis 3.1.1 (11 studies, 1500 participants): RR 2.13, 95% CI 1.31 to 3.48; I2 = 71%), TAC (Analysis 3.1.2 (2 studies, 88 participants): RR 5.65, 95% CI 1.96 to 16.27; I2 = 0%), and in studies that investigated either CsA or TAC (Analysis 3.1.3 (2 studies, 78 participants): RR 9.00, 95% CI 0.52 to 156.9) compared with standard dose CNI.
Sensitivity analyses
On sensitivity analyses stratified for steroid‐free regimens the effects were not different from steroid regimens for death, acute rejection and GFR. When stratified for time of follow‐up, the reduction in graft loss observed in the CNI withdrawal group was not significant when the long‐term studies were excluded in the analysis (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.57; forest plot not shown).
Low dose CNI versus standard dose CNI
There was little or no difference in patient death between low dose and standard dose CNI regimens (Analysis 4.1 (15 studies, 3462 participants): RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.27; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty).
There was a lower incidence of acute rejection (Analysis 4.2 (19 studies, 3757 participants): RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.00; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty) and graft loss (Analysis 4.4 (15 studies, 3286 participants): RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.02; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty) in the low dose CNI group.
Patients treated with low dose CNI had higher GFR (Analysis 4.3 (13 studies, 2623 participants): MD 4.10, 95% CI 2.07 to 6.12; I2 = 16%; moderate certainty). Low dose CNI regimen probably slightly lowers SCr (Analysis 4.5 (6 studies, 742 participants): MD ‐4.28 µmol/L, 95% CI ‐14.65 to 6.10; I2 = 37%; low certainty).
Hypertension was probably reduced (Analysis 4.7.1 (5 studies, 1877 participants): RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.00; I2 = 0%; low certainty) in the low dose CNI group. There was no difference in hyperlipidaemia (Analysis 4.7.2 (3 studies, 1443 participants): RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.19; I2 = 12%), CMV infection (Analysis 4.7.3 (6 studies, 1948 participants): RR 1.23, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.62; I2 = 10%; moderate certainty), diabetes mellitus (Analysis 4.7.4 (5 studies, 1292 participants): RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.34; I2 = 53%), malignancy (Analysis 4.7.5 (5 studies, 1637 participants): RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.97; I2 = 0%; low certainty), and total infections (Analysis 4.7.6 (9 studies, 1437 participants): RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.07; I2 = 0%).
Subgroup analyses
Low dose CNI immediately post‐transplant versus standard dose CNI
For studies which compared low dose CNI immediately post‐transplant with standard dose CNI regimens, there were less acute rejection episodes (Analysis 4.8.1 (12 studies, 2209 participants): RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.00; I2 = 0%) and graft loss (Analysis 4.10.1 (11 studies, 2800 participants): RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.03; I2 = 0%), and GFR improved (Analysis 4.9.1 (9 studies, 2200 participants): MD 3.09 mL/min, 95% CI 0.95 to 5.23; I2 = 4%) with the low dose regimen.
Late intervention with low dose CNI versus standard dose CNI
For studies which compared late intervention with low dose CNI, there was no difference acute rejection (Analysis 4.8.2 (6 studies, 759 participants): RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.81; I2 = 21%) or graft loss (Analysis 4.10.2 (3 studies, 306 participants): RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.12 to 7.56; I2 = 0%) however GFR was higher (Analysis 4.9.2 (3 studies, 243 participants): MD 8.81 mL/min, 95% CI 3.79 to 13.83; I2 = 0%).
Type of CNI (CsA or TAC)
When studies were classified on the type of CNI, there was less acute rejection in the low dose CsA (Analysis 5.1.1 (16 studies, 2906 participants): RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.01; I2 = 0%) compared to standard dose CsA but the results were not significant for low dose TAC (Analysis 5.1.2 (2 studies, 371 participants): RR 1.53, 95% CI 0.61 to 3.83; I2 = 0%) and for studies which used either CsA or TAC (Analysis 5.1.3 (1 study, 480 participants): RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.19).
Sensitivity analysis
When stratified for steroid‐free regimens, the reduction in graft loss was significant when the study using a steroid‐free regimen was excluded from the analysis (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.98; forest plot not shown).
When stratified for induction treatment with IL2RA or anti‐lymphocyte serum or globulin, the incidence of acute rejection was similar between the groups (12 studies: RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.07; forest plot not shown).
CNI withdrawal (avoidance or withdrawal) with mTOR‐I substitution versus standard dose CNI
There was little or no difference in death (Analysis 6.1 (23 studies, 5427 participants): RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.36; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty) and graft loss (Analysis 6.4 (25 studies, 5446 participants): RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.19; I2 = 0%; low certainty) between the CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I and standard dose CNI regimens.
There was an increase in acute rejection episodes (Analysis 6.2 (30 studies, 5903 participants): RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.78; I2 = 52%; moderate certainty) in the mTOR‐I group. Patients in the CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I group had a higher GFR compared to standard dose CNI regimen (Analysis 6.3 (23 studies, 4427 participants): MD 5.29, 95% CI 2.08 to 8.51; I2 = 90%). SCr was lower at one year in the CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I group (Analysis 6.5 (12 studies, 1702 participants): MD ‐17.10 µmol/L, 95% CI ‐26.95 to ‐7.25; I2 = 76%).
CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I group had a higher incidence of hyperlipidaemia (Analysis 6.7.2 (13 studies 3494 participants): RR 1.76, 95% CI 1.40 to 2.20; I2 = 49%). There was little or no difference in hypertension Analysis 6.7.1 (7 studies, 2207 participants): RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.15; I2 = 79%), diabetes mellitus (Analysis 6.7.4 (11 studies, 2833 participants): RR 1.27, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.66; I2 = 0%), and infections (Analysis 6.7.6 (9 studies, 1624 participants): RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.07; I2 = 0%) between the two groups. There was a reduction in malignancy (Analysis 6.7.5 (14 studies, 3699 participants): RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.00; I2 = 19%; low certainty) and CMV infection (Analysis 6.7.3 (13 studies, 2503 participants): RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.82; I2 = 43%; moderate certainty) in the mTOR‐I group compared to those treated with standard dose CNI regimen. There was an increase in lymphoceles in the CNI withdrawal, mTOR‐I group (Analysis 6.7.7 (8 studies, 1926 participants): RR 1.45, 95% CI 0.95, 2.21; I2 = 56%; low certainty).
Subgroup analysis
CNI avoidance with mTOR‐I substitution versus standard dose CNI
There was an increase acute rejection episodes (Analysis 6.8.1 (11 studies, 1844 participants): RR 1.27, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.65; I2 = 31%), while GFR was better (Analysis 6.9.1 (9 studies, 1748 participants): MD 6.45 mL/min, 95% CI 1.33 to 11.58; I2 = 86%) in the CNI avoidance with mTOR‐I regimen. Graft loss (Analysis 6.10.1 (8 studies, 1420 participants): RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.48; I2 = 0%) was similar in the two groups.
Late CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I substitution versus standard dose CNI
Acute rejection episodes were higher in the late CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I substitution group (Analysis 6.8.2 (17 studies, 3636 participants): RR 1.90, 95% CI 1.44 to 2.51; I2 = 23%). GFR was not significantly higher (Analysis 6.9.2 (14 studies, 2679 participants): MD 4.55 mL/min, 95% CI 0.26 to 8.85; I2 = 92%) and there was no difference in graft loss (Analysis 6.10.2 (17 studies, 4026 participants): RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.30; I2 = 13%) in the late CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I group.
Type of CNI (CsA or TAC)
There were more acute rejection episodes in the late CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I group compared to standard dose CsA (Analysis 7.1.1 (18 studies, 5903 participants): RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.76; I2 = 37%) and standard dose TAC (Analysis 7.1.2 (7 studies, 753 participants): RR 2.23, 95% CI 1.43 to 3.49; I2 = 15%), however in studies which used either CsA or TAC (Analysis 7.1.3 (5 studies, 1687 participants): RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.40 to 2.33; I2 = 64%) there were no differences in acute rejection episodes.
Sensitivity analyses
On sensitivity analyses stratified for steroid‐free regimens the effects were not different from steroid regimens for death, acute rejection, and GFR.
Low dose CNI with mTOR‐I versus standard dose CNI
There was little or no difference in patient deaths (Analysis 8.1 (11 studies, 2750 participants): RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.90; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty), acute rejection episodes (Analysis 8.2 (16 studies, 3300 participants): RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.40; I2 = 22%; moderate certainty), and graft loss (Analysis 8.4 (16 studies, 3304 participants): RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.01; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty) when low dose CNI with mTOR‐I was compared to standard dose CNI.
Patients treated with low dose CNI in combination with mTOR‐I had a higher GFR compared with standard dose CNI regimens (Analysis 8.3 (11 studies, 1749 participants): MD 6.24 mL/min, 95% CI 3.28 to 9.19; I2 = 56%; moderate certainty), and a lower SCr at one year (Analysis 8.5 (6 studies, 1320 participants): MD ‐14.14 µmol/L, 95% CI ‐22.55 to ‐5.72; I2 = 17%).
Hypertension (Analysis 8.7.1 (5 studies, 1421 participants): RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.20; I2 = 0%, low certainity), hyperlipidaemia (Analysis 8.7.2 (8 studies, 1793 participants): RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.28; I2 = 30%), and diabetes mellitus (Analysis 8.7.4 (5 studies, 686 participants): RR 1.36, 95% CI 0.81 to 2.27; I2 = 0%) were noted to be similar in patients treated with either low dose CNI in combination with mTOR‐I or standard dose CNI regimens. There was no reduction in malignancy in the low CNI in combination with mTOR‐I group compared to those treated with standard dose CNI regimens (Analysis 8.7.5 (5 studies, 1074 participants): RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.42 to 3.52; I2 = 0%, low certainity). There was little or no difference in total Infections (Analysis 8.7.6 (5 studies, 1271 participants): RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.08; I2 = 28%) and CMV infection (Analysis 8.7.3 (5 studies, 1250 participants): RR 0.41, 95% CI 0.16 to 1.06; I2 = 74%; low certainty) between the two groups.
Subgroup analysis
CNI and mTOR‐I combination with standard dose CNI regimen in the immediate post‐transplant period
GFR was higher in the low dose CNI with mTOR‐I group (Analysis 8.9.1 (10 studies, 1537 participants): MD 6.91 mL/min, 95% CI 3.86 to 9.96; I2 = 53%), however acute rejection (Analysis 8.10.1 (14 studies, 2736 participants): RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.39; I2 = 27%) and graft loss (Analysis 8.8.1 (14 studies, 2736 participants): RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.18; I2 = 0%) were similar in the two groups.
Late introduction of low dose CNI regimen with mTOR‐I substitution
Incidence of acute rejection was higher in the low dose CNI with mTOR‐I group (Analysis 8.10.2 (2 studies, 564 participants): RR 1.38, 95% CI 0.82 to 2.31; I2 = 0%), there was no difference in graft loss (Analysis 8.8.2 (2 studies, 568 participants): RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.15 to 1.04; I2 = 0%) and one study reported no difference in GFR in the late withdrawal group (Analysis 8.9.2 (1 study, 212 participants): MD 0.58 mL/min, 95% CI ‐5.00 to 6.16).
Type of CNI (CsA or TAC)
There was no difference in acute rejection in the low dose CsA with mTOR‐I compared to standard dose CsA (Analysis 9.1.1 (11 studies, 2232 participants): RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.22; I2 = 7%), however acute rejection was higher when low dose TAC with mTOR‐I was compared to standard dose TAC (Analysis 9.1.2 (5 studies, 1068 participants): RR 1.58, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.13; I2 = 0%).
Sensitivity analysis
On sensitivity analyses stratified for steroid free regimens the effects were not different from steroid regimens for death, acute rejection, or GFR.
Discussion
Summary of main results
This review describes CNI withdrawal or tapering classified according to: CNI withdrawal, low dose CNI, CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I substitution and low dose CNI with mTOR‐I compared to standard dose CNI regimens. The four groups were further stratified into CNI avoidance and withdrawal studies for major outcomes.
In the CNI withdrawal comparison with standard regimens, there was an increase in both clinical acute rejection and BPAR. GFR was higher in the withdrawal group especially over longer time periods. Death, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidaemia, total and CMV infections were not significantly different between the groups. Standard dose CNI regimens were more likely to be associated with hypertension when compared to CNI withdrawal patients. Graft loss was lower in the CNI withdrawal group; however, when stratified for avoidance studies, there was no difference in graft loss between the groups. These protocols (late withdrawal or avoidance) resulted in an increase in acute rejection with no clear benefit in terms of reduced graft loss. There was also no difference in the type of CNI (TAC or CsA) used or steroid‐free regimens in causing acute rejection. The beneficial effects of CNI withdrawal in reducing graft loss were lost when studies with long‐term outcomes were excluded.
In the low dose CNI comparison with standard dose regimens, there was a reduction in acute rejection, however when studies which administered induction treatment (IL2RA or anti‐lymphocyte serum or globulin) were excluded from the analysis, acute rejection was similar in the low dose CNI and standard dose CNI regimens, both in the immediate and late introduction groups. GFR was higher in the low dose CNI group at both one and five years. There were no significant differences in death, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidaemia, and CMV infection between the groups. Low dose CNI regimens had a marginal reduction in hypertension and total infections. Graft loss was reduced in the low dose CNI regimen, however when stratified for early and late intervention (taper), the effect was limited to the early intervention studies.
In the CNI avoidance or tapering with mTOR‐I substitution compared to standard dose CNI regimens, there was no difference in death between the two groups. The mTOR‐I substitution regimen however had more acute rejections (clinical and biopsy‐proven) and had more hyperlipidaemia. CMV infection and malignancy were significantly lower in the mTOR‐I substitution group. GFR was higher in the CNI avoidance with mTOR‐I subgroup but not in the late intervention subgroup. There was no difference in other outcomes when stratified for early or late intervention. Overall these protocols (avoidance or tapering) showed no major change compared to CNI alone except for the increase in acute rejection when compared with either CNI (CsA or TAC). The major benefit of mTOR‐I substitution is seen in the reduction in malignancies and CMV infections over time.
When low dose CNI was combined with mTOR‐I and compared to standard dose CNI regimens, there were no differences in death, graft loss or acute rejection. Adverse events including malignancy were not significantly different between the groups. GFR and SCr at one year favoured the low dose CNI with mTOR‐I regimen. However when stratified for early and late intervention there was increased acute rejection in the low dose CNI with mTOR‐I regimens.
This review investigated a large number of studies comparing different CNI regimens. Many studies and reports were published in multiple journals at various time points and were presented as abstracts at scientific meetings without acknowledging previous publications. The same studies were also published under different authors and this review combined these reports under a single study and reported outcomes systematically. The methodology was robust and the studies were also assessed for study quality and heterogeneity explored by subgroup and stratified analysis. The review classified interventions into four groups which reduced multiple comparisons due to several different regimens.
Overall completeness and applicability of evidence
Short time scales of most studies restrict the external validity of this review. Moving away from CNI may have multiple adverse long‐term effects that will not be measured by these studies. The studies also do not mention of antibody‐mediated rejection and pretransplant donor specific antibodies which could impact on short‐ and long‐term graft survival. Removal of CNI may remove one long‐term problem (CNI toxicity) but potentially cause worsening of other immunological issues which may in turn limit the duration of the graft. Low dose CNI seem the best option and mTOR‐I benefits appear to be limited to a reduction in the risks of malignancy and CMV infection, though these benefits are uncertain and are not the case when combined with CNI.
Quality of the evidence
The overall quality of the evidence was poor, with unclear risks of bias due to poor reporting (Figure 2); only 30% reported randomisation method and allocation concealment. Almost all studies were open‐label however for study outcomes such as death and graft loss they were not downgraded on GRADE assessment. Studies were analysed as intent to treat in 60% and all pre specified outcomes were reported in 54 studies. Almost half the studies received pharmaceutical funding which were classified as a high risk of bias.
The studies also used variable outcome measures and induction immunosuppression regimens. There is also variability in dosing, drug monitoring and time intervals of reporting outcomes. Most studies did not indicate baseline SCr or GFR to assess for changes due to the intervention. The follow‐up duration in majority of the included studies was between six months and three years which is a major limitation for concluding long‐term outcomes such as patient and graft survival.
Potential biases in the review process
There are multiple limitations of this review. The quality of data reporting was variable in terms of outcome and adverse effects. Most studies did not indicate the baseline creatinine or GFR to assess for changes due to the intervention. The standard deviation or confidence intervals were not noted when recording outcomes such as GFR and creatinine. Adverse effects were prevalent rather than incident cases which may affect outcomes such as diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidaemia and hypertension. The number of patients affected by individual outcomes were not indicated but mentioned as being significant with or without P values. Outcome reporting was not defined in cases of CMV, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia (total or low‐density lipoprotein) or diabetes mellitus. Different studies used different targets for CNI monitoring and also used either trough (C0) or two hour (C2) levels; some studies based the dose on mg/kg body weight and this review used the study author definitions to classify low dose and standard dose regimens. This may have some limitation in external validity of these recommendations. However we have tried to minimise this by subclassification into four groups and analyse them further into early and late interventions. Most studies were short‐term and did not capture long‐term hard outcomes such as graft survival, patient survival or adverse effects (such as cardiovascular outcomes) and malignancy. The duration of the majority of studies was between six months and three years with only three studies of up to five years duration. This raises the concern of how outcomes might be different after that time, particularly with regards to antibody‐mediated rejection which can be a complication of reduced immune suppression. The only studies that included more than 10 years of follow‐up tended to be much older studies, and compared immunosuppression such as azathioprine which is now largely obsolete or in very little use. The data from these studies is therefore limited by era effect. Studies with longer follow‐up are required to confirm the potential benefits of CNI reduction or risks of long‐term antibody‐mediated rejection, most studies also do not differentiate between patients with high versus low immunological risk.
Agreements and disagreements with other studies or reviews
This is the first review which sub classified studies into four different intervention groups and analysed them as low dose calcineurin inhibitor or CNI withdrawal with or without mTOR‐I substitution. The classification analysed the possible advantages noted in various studies with additional immunosuppressive agent such as mTOR‐I or continuation of CNI at a low dose.
Sharif 2011 (56 studies, 11,337 participants) showed a similar increase in acute rejection without affecting graft survival, infection, and patient survival, it also concluded an increase in graft failure when mTOR‐I was used. The review however did not classify studies into low dose or withdrawal as in our review but performed a pooled analysis which resulted in significant heterogeneity. In contrast to the conclusions of this review, Sharif 2011 reported lower NODAT in the CNI‐sparing group. Moore 2009 included only CNI‐sparing with MMF. The results were not stratified for mTOR‐I; however the studies were classified into those who had de novo CNI minimisation and elective minimisation or elimination of CNI. The results in the withdrawal group were similar to our review but the lower dose of CNI was not beneficial in reduction of acute rejection as we report. A systematic review by Lim 2014 (29 studies, 2350 participants) analysed conversion to an mTOR‐I based immunosuppression from CNI based therapy. They review reported short‐term improvements in GFR with mTOR‐I but increased acute rejections; there were no differences in graft loss or death. The conclusions of Lim 2014 are similar to our analysis of CNI withdrawal with mTOR‐I, however our review also analysed low dose CNI and mTOR‐I substitution.
Authors' conclusions
Implications for practice.
CNI avoidance increased acute rejection and CNI withdrawal increases acute rejection but reduced graft loss at least over the short‐term. Low dose CNI with induction regimens reduced acute rejection and graft loss with no major adverse events, also in the short‐term. The use of mTOR‐I reduced CMV infections but increased the risk of acute rejection. These conclusions must be tempered by the lack of long‐term data in most of the studies, particularly with regards to chronic antibody‐mediated rejection, and the suboptimal methodological quality of the included studies.
Implications for research.
Despite a large number of randomised multicentre studies, significant issues remain unanswered. Most study data highlighted short‐term outcomes due to the short follow‐up. Longer follow‐up will highlight hard end points such as cardiovascular outcomes, long‐term graft survival and effects on malignancy. Cost benefit analysis and quality of life surveys to assess the effect of lower immunosuppression may also be of significant benefit. Carefully structured longer term studies into immunosuppression of kidney transplant patients need to delineate patient death, malignancy risk in protocols with or without CNI, immunological risk will need to include acute rejection, donor‐specific antibodies and antibody‐mediated rejection.
History
Protocol first published: Issue 4, 2007 Review first published: Issue 7, 2017
Date | Event | Description |
---|---|---|
9 October 2008 | Amended | Converted to new review format. |
Acknowledgements
We thank Cochrane Kidney and Transplant for their advice and support in undertaking this review. We would also like to acknowledge the referees for their comments and feedback during the preparation of this review.
Appendices
Appendix 1. Electronic search strategies
DATABASE | Search terms |
CENTRAL | 1. Kidney Transplantation, MESH term 2. Tacrolimus, MESH 3. (tacrolimus):ti,ab,kw 4. "FK 506" or FK506:ti,ab,kw 5. Cyclosporine, MeSH term 6. (cyclosporin* or ciclosporin*):ti,ab,kw 7. (csa* or neoral* or cya* or restasis or sandimmun*):ti,ab,kw 8. (calcineurin inhibitor*):ti,ab,kw 9. (2 OR 3 OR 4 OR 5 OR 6 OR 7 OR 8) 10. (discontinu* or withdraw* or taper* or spar* or avoid* or minim* or remov* or stop* or reduction* or reduc* or free*):ti,ab,kw 11. (9 AND 10) 12. (1 AND 11) |
MEDLINE | 1. Kidney Transplantation/ 2. Tacrolimus/ 3. tacrolimus.tw. 4. prograf$.tw. 5. ("FK 506" or FK506).tw. 6. fr‐900506.tw. 7. fujimycin.tw. 8. protopic.tw. 9. Cyclosporine/ 10. cyclosporin$.tw. 11. ciclosporin$.tw. 12. csa.tw. 13. neoral.tw. 14. cya$.tw. 15. sandimmun$.tw. 16. restasis.tw. 17. calcineurin inhibitor$.tw. 18. or/2‐17 19. (discontinu$ or withdraw$ or taper$ or spar$ or avoid$ or minim$ or remov$ or stop$ or reduction or reduc$ or free$).tw. 20. and/18‐19 21. and/1,20 |
EMBASE | 1. Kidney Transplantation/ 2. Tsukubaenolide/ 3. tacrolimus.tw. 4. prograf$.tw. 5. ("FK 506" or FK506).tw. 6. fr‐900506.tw. 7. fujimycin.tw. 8. protopic.tw. 9. Cyclosporin/ 10. cyclosporin$.tw. 11. ciclosporin$.tw. 12. (csa or neoral or cya).tw. 13. (sandimmun$ or restaisi).tw. 14. Calcineurin Inhibitor/ 15. or/2‐14 16. (discontinu$ or withdraw$ or taper$ or spar$ or avoid$ or minim$ or remov$ or stop$ or reduction or reduc$ or free$).tw. 17. and/15‐16 18. and/1,17 |
Appendix 2. Risk of bias assessment tool
Potential source of bias | Assessment criteria |
Random sequence generation Selection bias (biased allocation to interventions) due to inadequate generation of a randomised sequence |
Low risk of bias: Random number table; computer random number generator; coin tossing; shuffling cards or envelopes; throwing dice; drawing of lots; minimization (minimization may be implemented without a random element, and this is considered to be equivalent to being random). |
High risk of bias: Sequence generated by odd or even date of birth; date (or day) of admission; sequence generated by hospital or clinic record number; allocation by judgement of the clinician; by preference of the participant; based on the results of a laboratory test or a series of tests; by availability of the intervention. | |
Unclear: Insufficient information about the sequence generation process to permit judgement. | |
Allocation concealment Selection bias (biased allocation to interventions) due to inadequate concealment of allocations prior to assignment |
Low risk of bias: Randomisation method described that would not allow investigator/participant to know or influence intervention group before eligible participant entered in the study (e.g. central allocation, including telephone, web‐based, and pharmacy‐controlled, randomisation; sequentially numbered drug containers of identical appearance; sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed envelopes). |
High risk of bias: Using an open random allocation schedule (e.g. a list of random numbers); assignment envelopes were used without appropriate safeguards (e.g. if envelopes were unsealed or non‐opaque or not sequentially numbered); alternation or rotation; date of birth; case record number; any other explicitly unconcealed procedure. | |
Unclear: Randomisation stated but no information on method used is available. | |
Blinding of participants and personnel Performance bias due to knowledge of the allocated interventions by participants and personnel during the study |
Low risk of bias: No blinding or incomplete blinding, but the review authors judge that the outcome is not likely to be influenced by lack of blinding; blinding of participants and key study personnel ensured, and unlikely that the blinding could have been broken. |
High risk of bias: No blinding or incomplete blinding, and the outcome is likely to be influenced by lack of blinding; blinding of key study participants and personnel attempted, but likely that the blinding could have been broken, and the outcome is likely to be influenced by lack of blinding. | |
Unclear: Insufficient information to permit judgement | |
Blinding of outcome assessment Detection bias due to knowledge of the allocated interventions by outcome assessors. |
Low risk of bias: No blinding of outcome assessment, but the review authors judge that the outcome measurement is not likely to be influenced by lack of blinding; blinding of outcome assessment ensured, and unlikely that the blinding could have been broken. |
High risk of bias: No blinding of outcome assessment, and the outcome measurement is likely to be influenced by lack of blinding; blinding of outcome assessment, but likely that the blinding could have been broken, and the outcome measurement is likely to be influenced by lack of blinding. | |
Unclear: Insufficient information to permit judgement | |
Incomplete outcome data Attrition bias due to amount, nature or handling of incomplete outcome data. |
Low risk of bias: No missing outcome data; reasons for missing outcome data unlikely to be related to true outcome (for survival data, censoring unlikely to be introducing bias); missing outcome data balanced in numbers across intervention groups, with similar reasons for missing data across groups; for dichotomous outcome data, the proportion of missing outcomes compared with observed event risk not enough to have a clinically relevant impact on the intervention effect estimate; for continuous outcome data, plausible effect size (difference in means or standardized difference in means) among missing outcomes not enough to have a clinically relevant impact on observed effect size; missing data have been imputed using appropriate methods. |
High risk of bias: Reason for missing outcome data likely to be related to true outcome, with either imbalance in numbers or reasons for missing data across intervention groups; for dichotomous outcome data, the proportion of missing outcomes compared with observed event risk enough to induce clinically relevant bias in intervention effect estimate; for continuous outcome data, plausible effect size (difference in means or standardized difference in means) among missing outcomes enough to induce clinically relevant bias in observed effect size; ‘as‐treated’ analysis done with substantial departure of the intervention received from that assigned at randomisation; potentially inappropriate application of simple imputation. | |
Unclear: Insufficient information to permit judgement | |
Selective reporting Reporting bias due to selective outcome reporting |
Low risk of bias: The study protocol is available and all of the study’s pre‐specified (primary and secondary) outcomes that are of interest in the review have been reported in the pre‐specified way; the study protocol is not available but it is clear that the published reports include all expected outcomes, including those that were pre‐specified (convincing text of this nature may be uncommon). |
High risk of bias: Not all of the study’s pre‐specified primary outcomes have been reported; one or more primary outcomes is reported using measurements, analysis methods or subsets of the data (e.g. subscales) that were not pre‐specified; one or more reported primary outcomes were not pre‐specified (unless clear justification for their reporting is provided, such as an unexpected adverse effect); one or more outcomes of interest in the review are reported incompletely so that they cannot be entered in a meta‐analysis; the study report fails to include results for a key outcome that would be expected to have been reported for such a study. | |
Unclear: Insufficient information to permit judgement | |
Other bias Bias due to problems not covered elsewhere in the table |
Low risk of bias: The study appears to be free of other sources of bias. |
High risk of bias: Had a potential source of bias related to the specific study design used; stopped early due to some data‐dependent process (including a formal‐stopping rule); had extreme baseline imbalance; has been claimed to have been fraudulent; had some other problem. | |
Unclear: Insufficient information to assess whether an important risk of bias exists; insufficient rationale or evidence that an identified problem will introduce bias. |
Data and analyses
Comparison 1. CNI withdrawal versus standard dose CNI.
Outcome or subgroup title | No. of studies | No. of participants | Statistical method | Effect size |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 Death | 14 | 2010 | Odds Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.19 [0.93, 1.54] |
1.1 Avoidance | 4 | 566 | Odds Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.31 [0.85, 2.01] |
1.2 Late withdrawal | 10 | 1444 | Odds Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.14 [0.83, 1.56] |
2 Acute rejection | 15 | 1666 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 2.54 [1.56, 4.12] |
2.1 Unspecified | 7 | 1066 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.72 [1.08, 2.75] |
2.2 Biopsy‐proven | 8 | 600 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 4.48 [2.10, 9.55] |
3 GFR | 8 | 910 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 3.56 [‐1.13, 8.25] |
3.1 One year | 5 | 653 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | ‐0.22 [‐5.38, 4.94] |
3.2 Two years | 1 | 108 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 7.90 [1.43, 14.37] |
3.3 Over 5 years | 2 | 149 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 11.09 [4.81, 17.37] |
4 Graft loss | 16 | 2090 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.85 [0.74, 0.98] |
5 Serum creatinine | 4 | 189 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 19.17 [5.89, 32.44] |
5.1 Six months | 1 | 24 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 31.78 [10.58, 52.98] |
5.2 One year | 3 | 165 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 11.04 [‐5.99, 28.06] |
6 Adverse events | 13 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | Subtotals only | |
6.1 Hypertension | 5 | 950 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.82 [0.71, 0.95] |
6.2 Hyperlipidaemia | 3 | 562 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.88 [0.63, 1.21] |
6.3 CMV infection | 7 | 608 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.87 [0.52, 1.45] |
6.4 Diabetes | 6 | 810 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.94 [0.62, 1.42] |
6.5 Malignancy | 6 | 1079 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.10 [0.93, 1.30] |
6.6 Infection | 6 | 724 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.96 [0.61, 1.51] |
7 Subgroup analysis: acute rejection | 15 | 1666 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 2.54 [1.56, 4.12] |
7.1 Avoidance | 3 | 238 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 2.16 [0.85, 5.49] |
7.2 Late withdrawal | 12 | 1428 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 3.21 [1.59, 6.48] |
8 Subgroup analysis: GFR | 8 | 910 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 3.56 [‐1.13, 8.25] |
8.1 Avoidance | 3 | 242 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | ‐2.22 [‐14.84, 10.40] |
8.2 Late withdrawal | 5 | 668 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 5.54 [1.66, 9.43] |
9 Subgroup analysis: graft loss | 16 | 2414 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.88 [0.78, 0.99] |
9.1 Avoidance | 4 | 566 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.96 [0.79, 1.16] |
9.2 Late withdrawal | 13 | 1848 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.84 [0.73, 0.97] |
Comparison 2. Subgroup analysis (antimetabolite): CNI withdrawal versus standard dose CNI.
Outcome or subgroup title | No. of studies | No. of participants | Statistical method | Effect size |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 Acute rejection | 15 | 1666 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 2.54 [1.56, 4.12] |
1.1 MMF/MPA | 10 | 1110 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 3.51 [1.79, 6.88] |
1.2 AZA | 5 | 556 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.81 [0.78, 4.19] |
Comparison 3. Subgroup analysis (CNI type): CNI withdrawal versus standard dose CNI.
Outcome or subgroup title | No. of studies | No. of participants | Statistical method | Effect size |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 Acute rejection | 15 | 1666 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 2.54 [1.56, 4.12] |
1.1 CSA | 11 | 1500 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 2.13 [1.31, 3.48] |
1.2 TAC | 2 | 88 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 5.65 [1.96, 16.27] |
1.3 Either CSA or TAC | 2 | 78 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 9.00 [0.52, 156.91] |
Comparison 4. Low dose CNI versus standard dose CNI.
Outcome or subgroup title | No. of studies | No. of participants | Statistical method | Effect size |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 Death | 15 | 3462 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.79 [0.50, 1.27] |
1.1 Early intervention | 13 | 3272 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.78 [0.48, 1.27] |
1.2 Late intervention | 2 | 190 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.02 [0.15, 6.94] |
2 Acute rejection | 19 | 3757 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.87 [0.76, 1.00] |
2.1 Unspecified | 8 | 2028 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.88 [0.74, 1.03] |
2.2 Biopsy‐proven | 11 | 1729 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.86 [0.64, 1.16] |
3 GFR | 13 | 2623 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 4.10 [2.07, 6.12] |
3.1 Six months | 5 | 812 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 1.96 [‐1.35, 5.28] |
3.2 One year | 7 | 1710 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 4.30 [1.78, 6.82] |
3.3 Two years | 1 | 101 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 11.10 [4.14, 18.06] |
4 Graft loss | 15 | 3286 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.75 [0.55, 1.02] |
5 Serum creatinine | 6 | 742 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | ‐4.28 [‐14.65, 6.10] |
5.1 Six months | 4 | 530 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | ‐1.46 [‐11.25, 8.33] |
5.2 One year | 2 | 212 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | ‐23.18 [‐46.12, ‐0.23] |
6 Change in GFR at 12 months | 1 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | Totals not selected | |
7 Adverse events | 14 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | Subtotals only | |
7.1 Hypertension | 5 | 1877 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.84 [0.70, 1.00] |
7.2 Hyperlipidaemia | 3 | 1443 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.04 [0.90, 1.19] |
7.3 CMV infection | 6 | 1948 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.23 [0.94, 1.62] |
7.4 Diabetes | 5 | 1292 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.82 [0.50, 1.34] |
7.5 Malignancy | 5 | 1637 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.90 [0.41, 1.97] |
7.6 Infection | 9 | 1437 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.95 [0.84, 1.07] |
8 Subgroup analysis: acute rejection | 18 | 2968 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.85 [0.70, 1.02] |
8.1 Immediate intervention | 12 | 2209 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.82 [0.67, 1.00] |
8.2 Late intervention | 6 | 759 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.05 [0.61, 1.81] |
9 Subgroup analysis: GFR | 12 | 2443 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 4.21 [1.90, 6.51] |
9.1 Immediate intervention | 9 | 2200 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 3.09 [0.95, 5.23] |
9.2 Late intervention | 3 | 243 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 8.81 [3.79, 13.83] |
10 Subgroup analysis: graft loss | 14 | 3106 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.75 [0.55, 1.03] |
10.1 Immediate intervention | 11 | 2800 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.75 [0.55, 1.03] |
10.2 Late intervention | 3 | 306 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.95 [0.12, 7.56] |
Comparison 5. Subgroup analysis (CNI type): low dose CNI versus standard dose CNI.
Outcome or subgroup title | No. of studies | No. of participants | Statistical method | Effect size |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 Acute rejection | 19 | 3757 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.87 [0.76, 1.00] |
1.1 CsA | 16 | 2906 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.87 [0.76, 1.01] |
1.2 TAC | 2 | 371 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.53 [0.61, 3.83] |
1.3 Either CsA or TAC | 1 | 480 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.64 [0.34, 1.19] |
Comparison 6. CNI withdrawal or avoidance + mTOR‐I versus standard dose CNI.
Outcome or subgroup title | No. of studies | No. of participants | Statistical method | Effect size |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 Death | 23 | 5427 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.96 [0.68, 1.36] |
1.1 Avoidance | 9 | 1689 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.89 [0.54, 1.47] |
1.2 Withdrawal | 14 | 3738 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.02 [0.59, 1.76] |
2 Acute rejection | 30 | 5903 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.43 [1.15, 1.78] |
2.1 Unspecified | 4 | 937 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.34 [1.12, 1.60] |
2.2 Biopsy‐proven | 26 | 4966 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.43 [1.10, 1.85] |
3 GFR | 23 | 4427 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 5.29 [2.08, 8.51] |
3.1 Six months | 2 | 187 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 5.22 [‐0.02, 10.46] |
3.2 One year | 16 | 3144 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 5.02 [0.59, 9.45] |
3.3 Two years | 4 | 796 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 6.08 [‐0.85, 13.01] |
3.4 Five years | 1 | 300 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 6.30 [2.43, 10.17] |
4 Graft loss | 25 | 5446 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.94 [0.75, 1.19] |
5 Serum creatinine at 1 year | 12 | 1702 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | ‐17.10 [‐26.95, ‐7.25] |
6 Change in GFR | 2 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | Subtotals only | |
6.1 One year | 1 | 246 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 6.10 [0.01, 12.19] |
6.2 Two years | 2 | 521 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 0.28 [‐15.00, 15.56] |
7 Adverse events | 24 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | Subtotals only | |
7.1 Hypertension | 7 | 2207 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.86 [0.64, 1.15] |
7.2 Hyperlipidaemia | 13 | 3494 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.76 [1.40, 2.20] |
7.3 CMV infection | 13 | 2503 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.60 [0.44, 0.82] |
7.4 Diabetes | 11 | 2833 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.27 [0.97, 1.66] |
7.5 Malignancy | 14 | 3699 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.69 [0.47, 1.00] |
7.6 Infection | 9 | 1624 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.99 [0.92, 1.07] |
7.7 Lymphocele | 8 | 1926 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.45 [0.95, 2.21] |
8 Subgroup analysis: acute rejection | 28 | 5480 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.56 [1.27, 1.91] |
8.1 Avoidance | 11 | 1844 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.27 [0.98, 1.65] |
8.2 Late withdrawal | 17 | 3636 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.90 [1.44, 2.51] |
9 Subgroup analysis: GFR | 23 | 4427 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 5.29 [2.08, 8.51] |
9.1 Avoidance | 9 | 1748 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 6.45 [1.33, 11.58] |
9.2 Late withdrawal | 14 | 2679 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 4.55 [0.26, 8.85] |
10 Subgroup analysis: graft loss | 25 | 5446 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.94 [0.75, 1.19] |
10.1 Avoidance | 8 | 1420 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.03 [0.72, 1.48] |
10.2 Late withdrawal | 17 | 4026 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.92 [0.65, 1.30] |
Comparison 7. Subgroup analysis (CNI type): CNI withdrawal + mTOR‐I versus standard dose CNI.
Outcome or subgroup title | No. of studies | No. of participants | Statistical method | Effect size |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 Acute rejection | 30 | 5903 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.43 [1.15, 1.78] |
1.1 CsA | 18 | 3463 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.42 [1.15, 1.76] |
1.2 TAC | 7 | 753 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 2.23 [1.43, 3.49] |
1.3 Either CsA or TAC | 5 | 1687 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.97 [0.40, 2.33] |
Comparison 8. Low dose CNI + mTOR‐I versus CNI.
Outcome or subgroup title | No. of studies | No. of participants | Statistical method | Effect size |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 Death | 11 | 2750 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.16 [0.71, 1.90] |
1.1 Low dose CNI + immediate mTOR | 9 | 2182 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.07 [0.62, 1.87] |
1.2 low dose CNI + late mTOR | 2 | 568 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.55 [0.52, 4.59] |
2 Acute rejection | 16 | 3300 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.13 [0.91, 1.40] |
2.1 Unspecified | 3 | 496 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.37 [0.90, 2.09] |
2.2 Biopsy‐proven | 13 | 2804 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.07 [0.83, 1.37] |
3 GFR | 11 | 1749 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 6.24 [3.28, 9.19] |
3.1 Six months | 4 | 244 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 5.79 [‐3.57, 15.15] |
3.2 One year | 6 | 1293 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 6.63 [4.11, 9.14] |
3.3 Two years | 1 | 212 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 0.58 [‐3.00, 6.16] |
4 Graft loss | 16 | 3304 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.67 [0.45, 1.01] |
5 Serum creatinine at 1 year | 6 | 1320 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | ‐14.14 [‐22.55, ‐5.72] |
6 Change in GFR at 2 years | 1 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | Totals not selected | |
7 Adverse events | 13 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | Subtotals only | |
7.1 Hypertension | 5 | 1421 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.98 [0.80, 1.20] |
7.2 Hyperlipidaemia | 8 | 1793 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.07 [0.89, 1.28] |
7.3 CMV infection | 5 | 1250 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.41 [0.16, 1.06] |
7.4 Diabetes | 5 | 686 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.36 [0.81, 2.27] |
7.5 Malignancy | 5 | 1074 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.22 [0.42, 3.52] |
7.6 Infection | 5 | 1271 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.95 [0.83, 1.08] |
8 Subgroup analysis: graft loss | 16 | 3304 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.67 [0.45, 1.01] |
8.1 Immediate mTOR | 14 | 2736 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.75 [0.48, 1.18] |
8.2 Late mTOR | 2 | 568 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.40 [0.15, 1.04] |
9 Subgroup analysis: GFR | 11 | 1749 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 6.24 [3.28, 9.19] |
9.1 Immediate mTOR | 10 | 1537 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 6.91 [3.86, 9.96] |
9.2 Late mTOR | 1 | 212 | Mean Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI) | 0.58 [‐3.00, 6.16] |
10 Subgroup analysis: acute rejection | 16 | 3300 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.13 [0.91, 1.40] |
10.1 Immediate mTOR | 14 | 2736 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.09 [0.86, 1.39] |
10.2 Late mTOR | 2 | 564 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.38 [0.82, 2.31] |
Comparison 9. Subgroup analysis (CNI type): low dose CNI + mTOR‐I versus standard dose CNI.
Outcome or subgroup title | No. of studies | No. of participants | Statistical method | Effect size |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 Acute rejection | 16 | 3300 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.13 [0.91, 1.40] |
1.1 CsA | 11 | 2232 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 0.97 [0.78, 1.22] |
1.2 TAC | 5 | 1068 | Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI) | 1.58 [1.16, 2.13] |
Characteristics of studies
Characteristics of included studies [ordered by study ID]
Abramowicz 2002.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Baseline immunosuppression
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Randomisation performed centrally using the minimisation method, with frequency matching for variables |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Central randomisation performed |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Follow‐up completed and reported as per ITT |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All relevant outcome data reported |
Other bias | High risk | Pharmaceutical industry funded: Hoffman La‐Roche |
Alsina 1987.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group 1
Treatment group 2
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Not reported |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Not reported |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Outcome reporting complete; 3/6 of our outcomes of interest reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Abstract‐only publications |
Andres 2009.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group 1
Treatment group 2
Treatment group 3
All groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not reported; AR was clinical and BPAR |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Modified ITT analysis |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | First author employee of Novartis; funding source not clarified |
APOLLO Study 2015.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Randomised using a validated, automated, central system |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Investigators notified of the treatment group by fax from central system |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | study not feasible to blinded assessment |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Pharma funded (Funding source: Novartis), study terminated early, 5 year outcome awaited |
Asberg 2006.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label RCT |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | All outcomes reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Expected outcomes reported, ITT analysis |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by a grant from Roche |
ASCERTAIN Study 2011.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group 1
Treatment group 2
Control group
All groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Randomisation, stratified by centre, was performed using a validated, automated system |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Outcome data at 24 weeks was reported as ITT |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Data at 24 weeks was reported as ITT |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis Pharma AG |
Baczkowska 2003.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Bansal 2013.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Randomisation was done with the help of a computer generated Bernoulli random number table |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Allocation concealment was achieved by opaque sequentially numbered sealed envelopes |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement, ITT not specified |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Biocon Nephrology, India |
Barsoum 2007.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Process of generating random numbers not clear |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | High risk | Sequentially randomised |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT performed and outcome reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All outcomes reported completely |
Other bias | Low risk | Appears free of other biases |
Bechstein‐193 2013.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth |
Bertoni 2007.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Bertoni 2011.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | All patient outcome data reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Protocol not specified but study reports all possible outcomes |
Other bias | Low risk | No other apparent biases |
Budde 2007.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | All patient outcome data reported |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Study design may not allow for blinding |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | All patient outcome data reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis |
CAESAR Study 2007.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group 1
Treatment group 2
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | The randomisation code for the CAESAR study (M67005) was generated in the Oracle Clinical randomisation module, Each site was supplied with a list of unique patient numbers |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Treatment assignment, corresponding to patient number, was provided on a sheet sealed inside a randomisation envelope |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis and had minimal missing data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | The report include all possible outcomes |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Roche, Switzerland |
Cai 2014.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Computerised random sequence generation |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis performed |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis |
CALFREE Study 2010.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis, minimal lost to follow‐up |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All expected outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by grants from Wyeth Pharma |
CENTRAL Study 2012.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Randomisation was performed centrally using a validated automated system |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Investigators notified of the randomisation group via the electronic case record form system |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | High risk | Withdrawals high in the EVL group |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported in 3 year follow‐up |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis Scandinavia |
CERTITEM Study 2015.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Primary outcome comparison of pathology pre and post randomisation not blinded |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Minimal lost to follow‐up at 2 year period |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | High risk | All prespecified outcomes not reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis Pharma |
Chadban 2013.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis, minimal loss to follow‐up |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Reported all prespecified outcomes |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis Australia. Australian sub protocol part of a global trial |
Chan 2008.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Centrally generated sequential sealed treatment allocation cards |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | All patient data reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Data were collected by investigators via a validated electronic system and transferred to an electronic database for analysis |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis, USA |
Chan 2012.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | The randomisation list was generated by using a validated automated system |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Results stated to be ITT but are different from the randomised number |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland |
Chhabra 2013.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Assessment not blinded |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis reporting complete with minimal loss of follow‐up |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All outcomes reported as specified in methods |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Pfizer Pharmaceuticals |
Cibrik 2007.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Centrally generated randomisation |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Numbers on the outside with concealed information about maintenance group allocation |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Investigators remained blinded but not clear if patients were blinded to treatment |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Investigators remained blinded until the end of the 2nd month post‐transplant |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcomes noted |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Pre specified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis Pharma |
Cockfield 2002.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | High risk | Preliminary data only |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | High risk | Outcomes not complete and reported as preliminary data |
Other bias | High risk | Preliminary data only; no full text publication 15 years after abstracts published |
CONCEPT Study 2009.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Randomisation at week 12 was centralized and balanced (1:1). Data collections were ensured by an electronic case report form and the centralized randomisation was ensured via Internet |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis, minimal withdrawal |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | The report included all expected outcomes |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Roche |
CONVERT Trial 2009.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Computerized randomisation/enrolment system used |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Automatic transtelephonic randomisation was used to assign study treatment groups. |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | High dropout, however ITT |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Report included all expected outcomes |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth Research |
CTOT‐09 Study 2015.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Initial treatment for 6 months (both groups)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Nature of the study does not let for physician blinding |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported in randomised patients |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | High risk | Study was prematurely stopped and TAC was introduced in more than half of the patients |
Other bias | High risk | Only 21 of the planned 210 patients were randomised |
de Sevaux 2001.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group Conventional CsA trough levels: 300 ng/mL (1st 3 months), 150 ng/mL (3 to 6 months) Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
All end points also were assessed at 6 months after transplant |
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Allocation was carried out by opening a sealed envelope with the lowest available study number |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing data noted |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Roche Pharmaceuticals, The Netherlands |
DICAM Study 2010.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | The randomisation code was generated and maintained by the Biostatistics Department at the University of Rouen |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | "Randomization was performed independently at each centre using sealed envelopes" |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Pathologists were blinded for biopsy interpretation |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Most patients completed the trial |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All expected outcome data reported |
Other bias | Unclear risk | MPA concentration measurements were funded by Roche |
Dudley 2005.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Computerized randomisation |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Computerized touch‐tone system stratified for centre, was used for treatment allocation. |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | open label |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | No missing outcome data, analysed ITT |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded and authored (2) by Hoffmann‐La Roche |
El‐Agroudy 2014.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Fangmann 2010.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Computer‐generated randomisation lists |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | After verification through the central office, centres were notified by fax |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis and all outcomes reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | Low risk | None identified |
Ferguson 2006.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group 1
Treatment group 2
Treatment group 3
Control group
C2 levels difference 50 to 70% between reduced and full dose group. |
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Partial blinding |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis Pharma AG |
Flechner‐318 Study 2002.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Randomised via computer‐generated cards |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No identifiable missing data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All expected outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth‐Ayerst Pharma |
Garcia 2007.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Enrolment was interrupted in 2002 and a 3rd group of patients were enrolled in a non‐randomised fashion Group 3
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | High risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported; a 3rd group of non‐randomised patients included after interim analysis |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | High risk | Process not clarified, also a 3rd group of non‐randomised patients included after interim analysis |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | There is no missing outcome data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | A 3rd group of non‐randomised patients included after the interim analysis |
Grimbert 2002.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups (immediately post‐transplant)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis, no missing outcomes despite long duration |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | Low risk | Study appears free of other biases |
Grinyo 2004.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Computer generated randomisation |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | High risk | Envelopes for randomisation prepared by Wyeth |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | High risk | High drop‐out rate resulting in protocol change |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth; high drop‐out resulting in protocol amendment mid trial |
Hall 1988.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | The randomisation sequence was centrally generated by computer and stratified by centre |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Patient assignment was delivered to each of the centres opaque, sealed envelopes |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data, ITT analysis |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All expected outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Sandoz to 10 years |
Hazzan 2005.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups (1st 3 months)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data noted |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Not all outcomes reported |
Other bias | Low risk | Study appears free of other biases |
Heering 1993.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Both groups (to 9 months)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Not reported |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | High risk | Study was stopped early due to increased rejection |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Other bias | High risk | Study stopped early due to significant increase in acute rejection in group 3 |
HERAKLES Study 2012.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Both groups (to 3 months)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Hollander 1995.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups (to 3 months)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Long term follow‐up reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Holm 2008.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Antibody induction
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | High risk | Follow‐up data not published as planned |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | High risk | No full‐text publication 10 years after abstract publication |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Isoniemi 1990.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Group 4
All groups (1st 10 weeks)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Sealed envelopes used |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No obvious missing data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Kosch 2003a.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups (to 6 months)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Kreis 2003.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
MacPhee 1998.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | "Randomization was performed using a computer‐generated list of random numbers" |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | "allocation was concealed in opaque numbered envelopes" |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | Low risk | Study appears free of other biases |
Martinez‐Mier 2006.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not done |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
MECANO Study 2009.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group 1
Treatment group 2
Control group
All groups (1st 6 months)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | The randomisation list was generated with “Random Allocation Software” Version 1.0 2004 tripod.com |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | A sealed opaque envelope was used, containing a sheet with the number of the treatment arm. All patients received an envelope after recruitment |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Study prematurely terminated after increased rejection in one arm |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | High risk | Study prematurely terminated after increased rejection in one arm |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis Pharma. Early termination of the study |
MODIFY Study 2012.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis, no missing outcome data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | ITT analysis, all outcomes reported |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Muhlbacher 2014.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | High risk | Interim analysis only reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Interim analysis, outcomes reported as prespecified |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth; interim analysis report |
Nafar 2012.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Adverse effects mentioned only for the initial one year |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | All outcomes mentioned for 1st year but only efficacy subsequently |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Safety data limited to the 1st year |
Nashan 2004.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | ITT analysis for efficacy but not safety data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Published data included all expected outcomes |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis. High drop‐out rates, safety data was not ITT |
Oh 2012.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Data were recorded and entered onto an electronic database and re‐evaluated by external monitors |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Incomplete outcome data was handled by ITT analysis |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported in final analysis |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis |
OPTICEPT Study 2009.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | High risk | Allocated sequentially |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | High risk | High rate of lost to follow‐up |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Roche |
ORION Study 2011.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Missing data accounted by modified ITT analysis |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | High risk | Prespecified outcomes reported however group 2 of the study limbs reported high BPAR and was terminated |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth; one of the study groups was terminated |
Pacheco‐Silva 2013.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Included prespecified outcomes |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Paoletti 2012.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Computer generated block randomisation |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Allocation was implemented using sequentially numbered, opaque sealed envelopes |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | 3 year data yet to be reported |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Study not powered, initially planned for 36 patients, ITT was for 30 |
Pascual 2003.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data noted |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Roche Laboratories |
Pascual 2008.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | 3 year data not available |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by ILEX Inc, San Antonio (makers of Alemtuzumab). |
Pedersen 1991.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups (on entry)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | High risk | Randomised consecutively |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | No missing data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Not all adverse events recorded in outcomes |
Other bias | Low risk | Study appears free of biases |
Pontrelli 2008.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | All outcome data reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | Low risk | Study appears free of other biases |
Qazi 2014.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | All patient outcome data reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Novartis Pharmaceuticals were sponsors, study directors, and authors |
REFERENCE Study 2006.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Randomisation was centralised and stratified |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | "centralized randomization was ensured via Internet" |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Data accounted for outcomes and analysed as ITT |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Roche |
Rivelli 2015.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Assigned to groups by random numbers generated by computer immediately before surgery |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Pathologist analysing the biopsies was blinded |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing patient data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All outcomes reported |
Other bias | Low risk | This study was supported by: The Brazilian Council for Scientific and Technological Development |
RMR Study 2001.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | Missing data accounted for outcome reporting |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth‐Ayerst Research |
Rossini 2007.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Biopsy documented at 2 years for all 12 patients |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | High risk | All prespecified outcomes noted; no full text publication by 2017 |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Russ 2003.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | No further data reported after 6 months |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | 6 month data was reported as specified in methods |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth |
Salvadori 2007.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | All patient data reported |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | High risk | Prespecified outcomes reported; no full text publication by 2017 |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Schaefer 2006.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | High risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | High risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Reported all outcomes |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Smak Gregoor 1999.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
All groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Used sealed envelopes with random numbers |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data noted |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified expected outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Roche Pharmaceuticals |
SMART TX Study 2010.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | A permuted block randomisation scheme was used to assign trial participants to one of the treatment groups |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Allocation concealment was secured by a centralized distribution of sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed envelopes, and a confirmatory randomisation fax to the clinical research organization |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | All possible outcomes reported as ITT |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Pre specified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth and Fresenius |
Spare‐the‐Nephron Study 2011.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Randomisation in blocks, numbers generated by study sponsor |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Accessed through interactive voice response system |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data, ITT analysis |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funding by Roche |
Stallone 2003.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups (to 3 months)
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | No blinding of outcome assessment |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | All patients accounted for |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | Low risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Stallone 2004.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Outcome assessment not blinded |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Stegall 2003.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data, reported ITT |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | Prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth, Genzyme, and Roche; high drop‐out rate |
Suwelack 2002.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data noted |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Pre specified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Hoffman‐La Roche |
SYMPHONY Study 2007.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Group 4
All groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Study was described as randomised and stratified, "A minimization algorithm was used to optimize the balance of characteristics of patients in study groups, overall and across the strata." |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Central randomisation, voice interactive allocation |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not performed |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Outcomes that are of interest reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Hoffmann‐La Roche |
Takahashi 2013a.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Independent validated system that automated the random assignment of treatment arms |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Most outcomes were objective, however there was no blinding of assessment |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis all patients analysed |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | Prespecified outcomes were reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis who also helped in manuscript development |
Tedesco‐Silva 2010.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
All groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Patients were assigned a randomisation number but procedure not clarified which was linked to one of the three treatment groups, using an interactive voice‐response system. The randomisation scheme was reviewed and approved by the Biostatistics Quality Assurance Group. |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Patient allocation was based on an interactive voice‐response system centrally |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing data outcome despite high drop‐out rates due to ITT analysis |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis; high drop‐out rates |
Velosa‐212 Study 2001.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Study was described as randomised, method of randomisation was not reported |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | Unclear risk | Insufficient information to permit judgement |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | No missing outcome data |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Unclear risk | One of the randomised groups did not receive the drug and were in a 3rd group |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth. Patients with ATN‐DGF that resolved later than post‐transplantation day 7 were not randomised but were assigned to a 3rd group (non‐randomised) |
Watson 2005.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Determined by random numbers generated by a Microsoft Excel Software program |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Sealed envelopes but concealed from the members who were involved in the enrolment of the participants. |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not blinded to clinicians |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | ITT analysis complete reporting |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | All prespecified outcomes reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Wyeth |
ZEUS Study 2011.
Methods |
|
|
Participants |
|
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
|
Outcomes |
|
|
Notes |
|
|
Risk of bias | ||
Bias | Authors' judgement | Support for judgement |
Random sequence generation (selection bias) | Low risk | Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio by use of a central, validated system that automated the random assignment of treatment groups to randomisation numbers (stratified according to living‐donor or deceased donor status) |
Allocation concealment (selection bias) | Low risk | Central automated random assignment |
Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias) All outcomes | High risk | Open‐label study |
Blinding of outcome assessment (detection bias) All outcomes | High risk | Not blinded |
Incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) All outcomes | Low risk | All outcomes reported and missing data accounted |
Selective reporting (reporting bias) | Low risk | prespecified variables reported |
Other bias | High risk | Funded by Novartis |
ACEi ‐ angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitor; ACR ‐ albumin:creatinine ratio; ALG ‐ antilymphocyte globulin; ATG ‐ antithymocyte globulin; ATN ‐ acute tubular necrosis; AR ‐ acute rejection; ARB ‐ angiotensin II receptor blocker; AUC ‐ area under the curve; AZA ‐ azathioprine; BMI ‐ body mass index; BP blood pressure; BPAR ‐ biopsy‐proven acute rejection; BPM ‐ beats per minute; C2 ‐ drug concentration 2 hours post ingestion; CAN ‐ chronic allograft nephropathy; CMV ‐ cytomegalovirus; CNI ‐ calcineurin inhibitor; CrCl ‐ creatinine clearance; CsA ‐ cyclosporin A; CPA ‐ cyclophosphamide; DGF ‐ delayed graft function; ECG ‐ electrocardiogram; EC‐MPS ‐ encapsulated mycophenolate sodium; ESKD ‐ end‐stage kidney disease; EVL ‐ everolimus; FSGS ‐ focal segmental glomerulosclerosis; (e or m)GFR ‐ (estimated or measured) glomerular filtration rate; Hb ‐ haemoglobin; HBV ‐ hepatitis B virus; HCV ‐ hepatitis C virus; HIV ‐ human immunodeficiency virus; HLA ‐ human leukocyte antigen; IL2RA ‐ interleukin 2 receptor antagonist; ITT ‐ intention‐to‐treat; M/F ‐ male/female; MMF ‐ mycophenolate mofetil; MPS ‐ mycophenolate sodium; MMF ‐ mycophenolate mofetil; MPA ‐ mycophenolic acid; mTOR‐I ‐ mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors; NODAT ‐ new‐onset diabetes after transplantation; PRA ‐ panel reactive antibodies; PRED ‐ prednisone/prednisolone; PTLD ‐ post‐transplant lymphoproliferative disease; RCT ‐ randomised controlled trial; SCr ‐ serum creatinine; SD ‐ standard deviation; SRL ‐ sirolimus; TAC ‐ tacrolimus; Treg ‐ regulatory T cells; WCC ‐ white cell count
Characteristics of excluded studies [ordered by study ID]
Study | Reason for exclusion |
---|---|
Abouna 1991 | Wrong intervention: abrupt CNI withdrawal compared to slow withdrawal, no standard dose CNI comparison group |
Alexander 2006 | Wrong intervention: determined if steroids can be eliminated with early discontinuation of CsA and later discontinuation of MMF |
Alpay 2013 | Wrong outcomes: study outcomes were effects of switch from CNI to EVL on serum/urinary markers of fibrosis (TGF‐beta), inflammation, glomerular and tubular injury. the follow‐up data was at 3 months of conversion |
Artz 2002 | Wrong intervention: conversion from CsA to TAC |
Asberg 2013 | Wrong intervention: CNI withdrawal versus mycophenolate withdrawal |
Baboolal 2003 | Wrong intervention: CsA elimination versus withdrawal, no standard dose |
Baboolal 2004 | Wrong intervention: CsA elimination versus withdrawal, no standard dose |
Baxter 1982 | Other: abstract more than 30 years old; no full text publication |
Brady 1990 | Wrong intervention: low dose CNI pre‐operatively |
Burkhalter 2012 | Wrong intervention: low dose CNI versus CNI withdrawal, no standard dose comparison |
CAMPASIA Study 2005 | Wrong intervention: Intervention also included steroid withdrawal |
Cattaneo 2005 | Wrong intervention: low dose SRL versus low dose CsA; part of a study to evaluate campath and MMF |
Chapman 1985 | Wrong intervention: CsA withdrawal compared to avoidance, no continuation arm |
CIS Trial 2014 | Wrong intervention: randomised to either trough CsA monitoring or by residual NFAT‐regulated gene expression |
CONCERTO Study 2005 | Wrong intervention: evaluated C2 monitoring in the context of a quadruple immunosuppressive regimen and planned to assess the efficacy and safety of two C2 targets for patients 3 to 6 months post‐transplantation. However, because differences between the groups post‐month 2 were not discernible; the secondary endpoints were highlighted as combined outcome |
David‐Neto 2001 | Wrong intervention: compared low versus high dose CsA in presence and absence of antibody induction |
de Sandes Freitas 2011 | Wrong intervention: steroid withdrawal versus CNI withdrawal |
de Sevaux 1998 | Wrong intervention: CNI + AZA converted to CNI + PRED |
EVEREST Study 2009 | Wrong intervention: both arms included low dose CsA, no standard dose arm |
Flechner 2004 | Wrong intervention: compared 2 doses of MMF |
Fleming 2016 | Wrong intervention: compared mTOR‐I based CNI withdrawal with CNI minimisation, no standard dose CNI for comparison |
Forwell 1986 | Wrong intervention: compared normal CsA dose with historical controls on azathioprine |
Fries 1988 | Wrong intervention: CsA with AZA regimen was compared with CsA, antilymphocyte antibody and steroids |
Fries 1988a | Wrong intervention: CsA with AZA regimen was compared with CsA, antilymphocyte antibody and steroids |
Fruchaud 1996 | Wrong intervention: CNI based immunosuppression with and without antilymphocyte antibody compared |
Gaber 2003 | Wrong intervention: compared CNI sparing with withdrawal |
Gelens 2006 | Wrong intervention: TAC and SRL versus TAC and SRL versus SRL and MMF intervention |
Ghafari 2007 | Wrong intervention: compared standard versus high dose which was tapered to standard dose at 3 months, not relevant to this review |
Gotti 2003 | Wrong population: CNI versus steroid tapering based on biopsy |
Griffin 1993 | Wrong intervention: Timing of CNI |
Grino 1991 | Wrong intervention: compared 2 induction regimens (OKT3 and ALG) |
Hamdy 2005 | Wrong intervention: did not compare low dose/withdrawal to standard dose regimen |
Hariran 2015 | Other: conversion of TAC based regimen to SRL in DGF; 6/15 randomised patients shifted back to TAC |
Henny 1986 | Wrong intervention: Study compared very high dose of CsA in the arm with high dose had CsA withdrawal |
Hernandez 2007 | Wrong intervention: low dose CNI with MMF and normal dose with AZA |
Hiesse 1991 | Wrong Intervention: multivariate analysis of various doses |
Hilbrands 1993 | Wrong intervention: CNI versus steroid withdrawal |
Hourmant 1987 | Wrong intervention: delayed introduction of CNI with monoclonal antibodies |
Hricik 1990 | Wrong intervention: low dose CNI versus withdrawal, no standard dose comparison |
Infante 2008 | Wrong intervention: compared withdrawal with low dose CNI, no standard comparison group |
Jain 2001 | Wrong intervention: no standard CsA group comparison, both arms were low dose |
Jindal 2002 | Wrong intervention: compared CNI elimination and withdrawal, no standard dose comparison |
John 1999 | Wrong outcome: compared high and low dose CsA with single outcome (lipid profile) |
Kamar 2012 | Wrong intervention: compared different doses of MMF |
Kandaswamy 2005 | Wrong intervention: multiple comparisons not relevant to this review; compared CsA + MMF with high and low dose TAC with variable SRL |
Keitel 1999 | Wrong intervention: compared early versus late CNI withdrawal, no standard dose comparison |
Kovarik 2001 | Wrong intervention: early versus delayed CsA |
Kovarik 2003 | Wrong intervention: compared early versus delayed introduction of CNI |
Kovarik‐2306 2004 | Wrong intervention: did not include standard dose |
Liu 2002a | Wrong intervention: compared CNI reduction versus withdrawal with mTOR‐I, no standard dose comparison |
Liu 2007b | Wrong intervention: compared CNI reduction versus withdrawal with mTOR‐I, no standard dose comparison |
Maiorano 2006 | Wrong intervention: compared CsA reduction with CsA withdrawal and SRL, no standard dose comparison |
McGrath 2001 | Wrong intervention: CsA withdrawal and substitution with another CNI (TAC) versus mycophenolate |
McMaster 1983 | Wrong intervention: CsA use alone in one arm |
Meier 2006 | Wrong intervention: compared two different CNIs (TAC and CsA) |
Messa 2009 | Wrong outcome: evaluated Treg changes between the SRL and TAC group, not relevant outcomes noted for this review |
Metcalfe 2002 | Wrong intervention: compared MMF and AZA |
Miserlis 2008 | Wrong intervention: variable co‐intervention (MMF and EVL) |
Mourad 2004a | Wrong intervention: Simulect versus ATG |
Mourad 2005 | Wrong intervention: early versus late introduction of CNI |
Mourer 2012 | Wrong intervention: mycophenolate withdrawal versus CNI withdrawal |
Noris 2007 | Wrong intervention: compared low dose SRL with low dose CNI does not satisfy inclusion criteria of this review |
Novoa 2011 | Wrong intervention: standard dose CNI not part of comparison |
OPTIMA‐TX Study 2008 | Wrong outcomes: reported CsA versus TAC, not relevant to this review |
Pankewycz 2011 | Wrong intervention: primary intervention to study low dose ATG irrespective of maintenance immunosuppression and included low dose SRL and low dose TAC, no standard dose TAC for comparison |
Ponticelli 1988 | Wrong intervention: double therapy compared to 3 drug CNI regimen |
Rahamimov 2008 | Other: incomplete study, stopped prematurely |
Ritz 1998 | Wrong intervention: CsA was withdrawn with ATG support and reintroduced within a week immediate transplant for ATN |
Saunders 2003 | Wrong intervention: CNI dose reduction in both arms |
SOCRATES Study 2014 | Wrong intervention: CNI withdrawal versus steroid withdrawal |
Westhoff 1995 | Other: study discontinued before conclusion |
Wu 2007d | Wrong population: randomisation only if GFR < 40 mL/min |
ALG ‐ antilymphocyte globulin; ATG ‐ antithymocyte globulin; ATN ‐ acute tubular necrosis; AZA ‐ azathioprine; CNI ‐ calcineurin inhibitor; CsA ‐ cyclosporin A; C2 ‐ drug dose levels 2 hours after ingestion; EVL ‐ everolimus; GFR ‐ glomerular filtration rate: MMF ‐ mycophenolate mofetil; mTOR ‐ mammalian target of rapamycin; NFAT ‐ nuclear factor of activated T‐cells; SRL ‐ sirolimus; TAC ‐ tacrolimus; TGF ‐ transforming growth factor; Treg ‐ regulatory T cells
Characteristics of ongoing studies [ordered by study ID]
David‐Neto 2014.
Trial name or title | A randomized, prospective study comparing everolimus/low tacrolimus with regular tacrolimus/MPS for the elderly renal transplant recipients |
Methods |
|
Participants |
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
Both groups
|
Outcomes |
|
Starting date | 36 patients have been evaluated of the total 90 planned |
Contact information | David‐Neto, E |
Notes |
ERIC Study 2010.
Trial name or title | An appraisal on the convenience of early everolimus introduction and calcineurin inhibitor withdrawal in Kidney recipients: THE ERIC STUDY |
Methods |
|
Participants |
|
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
Outcomes |
|
Starting date | July 2010 |
Contact information | JC Ruiz |
Notes |
ISRCTN63298320.
Trial name or title | A prospective randomised trial of the use of cellcept to allow early tacrolimus withdrawal in live donor kidney transplantation |
Methods |
|
Participants |
|
Interventions |
|
Outcomes |
|
Starting date | 01/01/2002 |
Contact information | M Nicholson, University Hospitals of Leicester c/o Research and Development Office Leicester General Hospital NHS Trust LE1 4PW, Leicester, UK |
Notes | Recruitment dates 1/1/2002 to 1/6/2003 ‐ not study results published by February 2017 |
TRANSFORM Study 2013.
Trial name or title | Advancing renal TRANSplant eFficacy and safety Outcomes with an eveRolimus‐based regiMen (TRANSFORM) |
Methods | Multicentre, open‐label RCT |
Participants | Recipient of a primary (or secondary, if 1st graft is not lost due to immunological reasons) kidney transplant from a deceased heart beating, living‐unrelated, living‐related non‐HLA identical or an expanded criteria donor. Randomised within 24 h of completion of transplant surgery |
Interventions | Treatment group
Control group
|
Outcomes |
|
Starting date | December 2013 |
Contact information | Novartis Pharmaceuticals |
Notes |
AR ‐ acute rejection; ATG ‐ antithymocyte globulin; BPAR ‐ biopsy‐proven acute rejection; CKD ‐ chronic kidney disease; CMV ‐ cytomegalovirus; CNI ‐ calcineurin inhibitor; CsA ‐ cyclosporin A; DM ‐ diabetes mellitus; EVL ‐ everolimus; (e)GFR ‐ (estimated) glomerular filtration rate; MMF ‐ mycophenolate mofetil; MPS ‐ mycophenolate sodium; NODAT ‐ new onset diabetes after transplantation; PRED ‐ prednisone/prednisolone; RCT ‐ randomised controlled trial; TAC ‐ tacrolimus
Differences between protocol and review
Cochrane's risk of bias assessment tool has replaced the quality assessment checklist.
Contributions of authors
Writing of protocol and review: KK, GW, GT Screening of titles and abstracts: KK, GW Assessment for inclusion: KK, GW Quality assessment: KK, GW Data extraction: KK, GW Data entry into RevMan: KK, GW Data analysis: KK, GW Disagreement resolution: GT
Declarations of interest
Krishna M Karpe: none known
Girish S Talaulikar: none known
Giles Walters: none known.
New
References
References to studies included in this review
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Chan 2008 {published data only}
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Chhabra 2013 {published data only}
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Cibrik 2007 {published data only}
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Cockfield 2002 {published data only}
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CONCEPT Study 2009 {published data only}
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Oh 2012 {published data only}
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Rossini 2007 {published data only}
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Tedesco‐Silva 2010 {published data only}
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