Fig. 2.

Actual LULC changes between 1998 and 2017 and LULC scenarios in the Hainan Island EFCA, depicting the decision alternatives considered in the analysis. The observed LULC changes from 1998 to 2017 show great expansion of rubber plantation (map A). Under No Rubber Plantation Expansion, 1998 baseline rubber plantation conditions remain into 2017; we used this scenario to estimate the changes in LULC and associated ecosystem services had there been no rubber plantation expansion (map B). The Intercropped Rubber Plantation scenario keeps natural forest and rubber plantation areas in line with the observed 2017 data, but rubber trees are intercropped with an understory of medicinal plants (Methods) (map C). This allows us to explore whether improved management can yield a win−win outcome for provisioning of products, regulating services, and cultural services, and for livelihoods.