Table 6.
Likelihood (%) of developing attacks and disability over the next 5 years for patients who are on IST from disease onset and who have not reached the endpoint but experienced one attack within 2 years since disease onset
| Ethnicity and sex | Japanese female | Japanese male | Caucasian female | Caucasian male | African female | African male | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attack | Risk over next 5 years | Risk over next 5 years | Risk over next 5 years | Risk over next 5 years | Risk over next 5 years | Risk over next 5 years | ||||||||||||||
| Onset age, years | Onset type | 2nd type | All | EDSS 6.0 | Blind | All | EDSS 6.0 | Blind | All | EDSS 6.0 | Blind | All | EDSS 6.0 | Blind | All | EDSS 6.0 | Blind | All | EDSS 6.0 | Blind |
| ≤35 | ON | ON | 69.0 | 7.1 | 20.1 | 66.4 | 5.1 | 13.8 | 79.1 | 7.9 | 21.2 | 76.4 | 5.7 | 14.7 | 77.7 | 7.7 | 31.4 | 75.2 | 5.7 | 22.7 |
| TM | ON | 68.6 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 64.4 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 78.9 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 74.9 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 78.2 | 13.8 | 11.1 | 74.1 | 10.2 | 7.5 | |
| BS | ON | 77.1 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 74.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 84.4 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 81.7 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 84.0 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 81.2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | |
| ON | TM | 66.9 | 7.3 | 20.6 | 62.5 | 5.3 | 14.2 | 77.7 | 8.1 | 21.8 | 73.5 | 6.0 | 15.3 | 76.2 | 7.9 | 32.0 | 72.2 | 6.0 | 23.5 | |
| TM | TM | 68.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 62.6 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 78.9 | 13.6 | 6.9 | 73.6 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 78.1 | 14.0 | 11.3 | 72.8 | 10.4 | 7.7 | |
| BS | TM | 76.1 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 72.1 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 83.8 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 80.0 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 83.4 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 79.4 | 6.9 | 8.6 | |
| ON | BS | 64.2 | 7.3 | 20.6 | 60.7 | 5.3 | 14.1 | 74.6 | 8.3 | 22.0 | 70.9 | 6.1 | 15.4 | 73.0 | 8.1 | 32.4 | 69.4 | 6.1 | 23.6 | |
| TM | BS | 65.3 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 60.4 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 75.5 | 13.9 | 7.0 | 70.6 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 74.7 | 14.3 | 11.5 | 69.6 | 10.5 | 7.8 | |
| BS | BS | 74.9 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 71.9 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 81.8 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 78.4 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 81.3 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 77.8 | 6.8 | 8.5 | |
| 36–48 | ON | ON | 65.2 | 11.1 | 18.1 | 62.0 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 75.4 | 12.5 | 19.3 | 72.2 | 9.2 | 13.3 | 74.5 | 12.2 | 28.7 | 71.4 | 9.2 | 20.7 |
| TM | ON | 64.8 | 18.0 | 5.5 | 60.3 | 13.2 | 3.6 | 75.3 | 20.2 | 6.0 | 70.8 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 74.9 | 20.7 | 9.8 | 70.2 | 15.5 | 6.6 | |
| BS | ON | 74.6 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 71.6 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 81.8 | 13.9 | 6.8 | 78.6 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 81.8 | 14.2 | 11.0 | 78.5 | 10.4 | 7.4 | |
| ON | TM | 63.6 | 11.3 | 18.4 | 58.7 | 8.3 | 12.7 | 74.4 | 12.8 | 19.7 | 69.6 | 9.5 | 13.7 | 73.3 | 12.5 | 29.2 | 68.6 | 9.5 | 21.3 | |
| TM | TM | 65.2 | 18.1 | 5.6 | 59.0 | 13.4 | 3.7 | 75.8 | 20.3 | 6.0 | 69.9 | 15.3 | 4.0 | 75.3 | 20.8 | 9.8 | 69.3 | 15.8 | 6.7 | |
| BS | TM | 74.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 69.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 81.4 | 14.1 | 6.9 | 77.1 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 81.5 | 14.4 | 11.2 | 77.0 | 10.7 | 7.6 | |
| ON | BS | 61.0 | 11.3 | 18.3 | 57.1 | 8.2 | 12.5 | 71.1 | 12.9 | 19.8 | 66.8 | 9.6 | 13.8 | 70.0 | 12.6 | 29.5 | 65.8 | 9.6 | 21.4 | |
| TM | BS | 62.2 | 18.1 | 5.6 | 57.1 | 13.2 | 3.6 | 72.2 | 20.6 | 6.1 | 66.7 | 15.3 | 4.1 | 71.7 | 21.1 | 10.0 | 66.1 | 15.9 | 6.8 | |
| BS | BS | 73.1 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 69.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 79.4 | 14.0 | 6.8 | 75.7 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 79.4 | 14.3 | 11.1 | 75.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | |
| >48 | ON | ON | 63.9 | 20.0 | 14.6 | 59.3 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 75.2 | 22.0 | 15.5 | 70.8 | 16.7 | 10.7 | 74.2 | 22.0 | 23.8 | 69.9 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| TM | ON | 64.1 | 29.8 | 4.2 | 58.2 | 22.8 | 2.8 | 75.5 | 32.5 | 4.5 | 70.0 | 25.4 | 3.0 | 74.9 | 33.4 | 7.4 | 69.3 | 26.3 | 5.1 | |
| BS | ON | 72.3 | 21.8 | 4.9 | 68.0 | 16.1 | 3.3 | 81.0 | 24.3 | 5.3 | 76.9 | 18.3 | 3.6 | 80.9 | 24.9 | 8.8 | 76.6 | 19.0 | 6.0 | |
| ON | TM | 64.2 | 20.1 | 14.7 | 57.9 | 15.2 | 10.2 | 75.6 | 22.2 | 15.6 | 69.9 | 17.1 | 10.9 | 74.5 | 22.1 | 23.9 | 68.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | |
| TM | TM | 66.1 | 29.7 | 4.2 | 58.9 | 22.9 | 2.8 | 77.2 | 32.4 | 4.5 | 70.8 | 25.5 | 3.1 | 76.6 | 33.3 | 7.4 | 70.1 | 26.4 | 5.1 | |
| BS | TM | 73.1 | 21.9 | 5.0 | 67.5 | 16.3 | 3.3 | 81.8 | 24.4 | 5.4 | 76.6 | 18.6 | 3.6 | 81.6 | 25.0 | 8.8 | 76.3 | 19.3 | 6.0 | |
| ON | BS | 60.2 | 20.3 | 14.8 | 54.7 | 15.2 | 10.2 | 71.5 | 22.6 | 15.9 | 66.0 | 17.3 | 11.1 | 70.4 | 22.5 | 24.3 | 64.9 | 17.5 | 17.5 | |
| TM | BS | 61.9 | 29.9 | 4.2 | 55.4 | 22.9 | 2.8 | 72.9 | 33.1 | 4.6 | 66.6 | 25.9 | 3.1 | 72.3 | 34.0 | 7.6 | 65.8 | 26.8 | 5.2 | |
| BS | BS | 70.8 | 21.6 | 4.9 | 66.0 | 15.9 | 3.2 | 78.9 | 24.6 | 5.4 | 74.0 | 18.6 | 3.6 | 78.7 | 25.2 | 8.9 | 73.6 | 19.3 | 6.1 | |
See Supplementary Table 5 for the full dataset.
BS = brainstem; ON = optic neuritis; TM = transverse myelitis.