Fig 10. Correlation between true and expected values of the variances and forgetting factors.

All the fitted values (y axis) are derived from the expected value of θ₀ (A., variance) and {ϕ₀, β₀} (B., forgetting factors) under the fitted approximate posterior distribution. Each dot represents a different subject. A. True (x-axis) to fit (y axis) correlation for the reward (blue) and mean reward (red) variance. Both expected values correlated well with their generative parameter, although the initial number of observations of the gamma prior α₀ did not correlate well with its generative parameter. B. True (x-axis) to fit (y axis) correlation for the first (blue) and second (red) level expected forgetting factor.