Table 1.

Estimated transition probabilities extracted from literatures for the Markov Model

Variable	LR	TACE
Annual mortality rate of general population(60‐65 years old)	0.05548
Annual mortality rate of cirrhotic patientsa	0.02747
Annual mortality rate for progressive HCCa	0.746 (0.573‐0.843)49, 50
Probability of preoperative mortality	0.033 (0.011‐0.054)7, 19, 21, 22, 31, 36	—
Probability of incomplete resection	0.114 (0.06‐0.216)22, 32, 34	—
Probability of annual recurrenceb	0.245 (0.186‐0.303)29, 30, 34, 35	—
Probability of progression of recurrent HCC	0.235 (0.224‐0.243)33, 36	—
Probability of CR after TACE	—	0.156 (0.025‐0.406)12, 38, 39, 40
Probability of PR after TACE		0.494 (0.268‐0.725)12, 38, 39, 40
Probability of SD after TACE	—	0.202 (0.072‐0.263)12, 38, 39, 40
Probability of PD after TACE	—	0.148 (0.090‐0.269)12, 38, 39, 40
Probability of recurrence of CR patients within 1 year	—	0.663 (0.576‐0.750)44, 46
Probability of CR transforming into PD within 1 year	—	0.12744, 46
Probability of PR transforming into PD within 1 year	—	0.12744, 46
Probability of SD transforming into PD within 1 year	—	0.12744, 46

LR, liver resection; TACE, transarterial chemoembolization; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; CR, complete response; SD, stable disease; PD, progressive disease; PR, partial response.

^aProbabilities were converted into annual mortality applying the declining exponential approximation of life‐expectancy approach: μ = 1‐ (r),1 ^/time where r referred to survival rate or 50% and time referred to observation time or median survival time (years).

^bThe annual recurrence probability was derived from post LR 5‐year cumulative recurrence rate by the assumption of DEALE formula as described above; 5‐year disease‐free survival was also transformed into annual recurrence rates applying the declining exponential approximation of life‐expectancy method: μ = −1/t*ln(s), where t referred to the follow‐up time and s referred to data extracted from literatures.