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. 2019 Apr 29;9:6637. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-43246-y

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Seasonality of WNV transmission in human, avian, and mosquito hosts. WNV infection data from Iowa (2002–2016) were analyzed and displayed as weekly values for individual years or as the annual mean of human incidence (A), sentinel chicken seroprevalence (B), or Culex minimum infection rate (MIR) (C). Correlations between different host (human, avian, mosquito) infection rates were examined by plotting averaged weekly values (weeks 20–40; data points on graph) to determine the strength of host interactions involved in WNV transmission (D–F). A linear regression (black dashed line; R² = 0.45, P < 0.001) or a best-fit 4^th order polynomial (green line; R² = 0.94) were used to explain sentinel chicken seroprevalence correlations to human incidence (D). Similar linear regression (black dashed line; R² = 0.63, P < 0.001) and best-fit 4^th order polynomial (purple line; R² = 0.86) were performed to examine the effects of Culex MIR in estimating sentinel chicken seroprevalence (E). The non-linear relationship best explains the declining human incidence or mosquito MIR, while sentinel chicken seroprevalence remained high at the end of the season (E). Linear regression (orange line; R² = 0.71, P < 0.0001) analysis of Culex MIR and human WNV incidence (F).