Table 3.
10 most common classification of risk estimates with hypothetical and real examples. (N = 166 (22%) of 772 risk descriptions).
| Type of risk description |
Example description | Example | Source | N (%) of descriptions | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleatory | Epistemic | ||||
| Quantitative, Percentage | Qualitative, Implied Range | 5 year survival: >99% | The chance that I will be free from kidney cancer after 12 years is: (greater than) X% | FCCC -Preoperative recurrence calculator | 35 (5%) |
| Quantitative, Time | Qualitative, Prefix | Estimated median survival: 5 years | Predicted median survival: surgery + chemo: X months | KCI -Pancreatic Cancer Adjuvant Therapy | 35 (5%) |
| Quantitative, Percentage | Quantitative, Confidence Interval | 5 year survival: 5–10% | 12 months: predicted survival probability: X% (Y-Z) | Duke -Second Line Chemotherapy | 30 (4%) |
| Quantitative, Time | Quantitative, Range | Overall survival time: X-Y years | PSA: every X-Y months (for 5y, then every year) | FCCC -NCCN guidelines prostate cancer recommended follow-up | 27 (3.5%) |
| Qualitative and quantitative, Percentage | Qualitative, Prefix | Estimated 5-year survival: X%, low | Estimated probabilities for overall survival for this particular rectal cancer patient are: low/medium/ high risk: X%at 5 yrs | MAASTRO - Models local recurrences, distant metastases & overall survival | 10 (1%) |
| Quantitative, Frequency | Qualitative | Estimated survival: X in XXX are alive at the end of 5 years. These numbers are based on a single, small study so may change as further research is reported. | If there would be a group of 100 patients with the same characteristics as this individual patient, X patients would have no local recurrence and Y patients would be alive 2 years after the radiotherapy treatment. Due to the fact that a model can never be completely the same as the “real world”, these numbers could be lower or higher, but these are the most likely values | MAASTRO - Model local recurrences & overall survival (larynx) | 9 (1%) |
| Qualitative and quantitative, Percentage | Quantitative, Confidence Interval | Estimated 5-year survival: X%, 95% CI X%, X% | Probability of dyspnea >2 within 6 months after the start of R(CH)T: X%. 95% confidence interval Y% - Z% | MAASTRO - Model lung dysphagia | 4 (<1%) |
| Quantitative, Percentage | Quantitative, Range | 5-year survival: between X % and Y% | Extracapsular extension (ECE): range: X% to Y% | CapCalculator - estimated extent of disease at surgery | 4 (<1%) |
| Quantitative, Percentage | Qualitative, Prefix | 5-year survival: around X% | About 50 percent of patients who do not have organ-confined cancer have long-term freedom from recurrence following surgery | MSK - Prostate cancer - preradical prostatectomy | 3 (<1%) |
| Quantitative, Probability | Quantitative, Confidence Interval | Probability of 5 year survival: X.X, 95% CI X.X, X. X | Predicted 12 months survival probability: X (Y-Z confidence interval) | Metatstatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer Patients prediction tool | 3 (<1%) |