Table 2.
Methodological characteristics of the reviewed prognostic models
| Study, Year (Ref. #) | Predictors Ascertainment | Outcome Details | Outcome Ascertainment | Mean Follow-Up (yrs)∗ | Baseline Sample | Outcome Events | Original Prediction Model Being Tested |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polenz, 2015 [26] | Two physicians independently performed clinical assessment and reviewed electronic medical records. | All-cause mortality, stroke, transient ischemic attack, acute myocardial infarction, and new atrial fibrillation/flutter. | A specialist validated each outcome (e.g., stroke by a neurologist). | 1.3 (12 ± 4 months) | 468 | 15 | CHA2DS2VASc |
| Muñoz, 2014 [22] | A researcher extracted all the information from health records. | Total coronary disease: coronary death; myocardial infarction; angina pectoris, coronary insufficiency. Hard coronary disease: coronary death and myocardial infarction. |
By a researcher who did not have access to baseline information. Health records of people suspected to have had a coronary event were verified by an internal medicine physician, who defined whether these were either total or hard coronary diseases. Cause of death was based on death certificates or discharge records. | 10 yrs, event or censoring | 1,013 | 61 | Framingham, PROCAM |
| Gulayin, 2018 [20] | Blood pressure, measured after a 5-min rest using a mercury or aneroid sphygmomanometer; average of 3 readings was used. Blood samples were withdrawn after ≥10 h of fasting. | Angina pectoris, nonfatal/fatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal/fatal stroke, coronary artery, carotid or peripheral revascularization, heart failure, and sudden death. | Events were confirmed by an internal medicine or cardiology specialist after verification of the event-specific record. | Median = 2.2 (IQR: 1.9–2.8) | 6,364 | 60 | CUORE, Framingham, Globorisk, ACC/AHA Pooled Equation |
| Sandoya, 2009 [23] | Interviews for smoking and medication use. Blood pressure measured with a semi-automatic validated instrument during a resting period, using the mean of 3 measurements separated at least 2 min. Blood samples were withdrawn after a 12-h fasting period and analyzed in a central laboratory. | Ischemic disease as ICD-10—I21, I20, I20.9, I46—or revascularization. | Based on discharge diagnosis on medical records, when needed telephone communications were held with the participants or relatives. | 9.2 ± 2.1 | 1,110 | 72 | Framingham |
| Acevedo, 2017 [19] | Blood samples withdrawn after a 12-h fasting period from venous samples. All participants were interviewed. Blood pressure was measured according to JNC VII. | Nonfatal/fatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal/fatal stroke, or other cardiovascular event. | Deaths registries were obtained. No information on ascertainment of nonfatal events; it is reported that the analyses were based on mortality as the outcome (cardiovascular mortality). | 7 ± 3 | 3,284 | 34 | ACC/AHA Pooled Equation; Framingham and Framingham Chileno. |
| Jiménez-Corona, 2009 [21] | Standard questionnaires were used. Blood pressure was measured 3 times after a 5-min rest using a random 0 sphygmomanometer; the mean of the last 2 records was used. Fasting serum total cholesterol and HDL were determined by cholesterol-esterase. | Nonfatal/fatal myocardial infarction. | By resting ECG or by death certificate. ECG were interpreted according to the Minnesota code, including possible and probable myocardial infarctions. Death certificates in which the underlying cause of death was ICD-10 410–410.9. | Median = 6.2 (range 0.2–9.8) | 1,667 | 58 | Framingham by Wilson et al., and by Anderson et al. |
| Joseph, 2018 [25] | No details provided. | Cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, or revascularization (percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass). | Participants or relatives were interviewed for cardiovascular events. All events were reviewed at each study site using supporting documentation, verbal autopsies, or medical records; standard definitions were used. | 4.89 (2.24) | 100,475 (NL-IHRS) 107,863 (FC-IHRS) |
352 | NL-IHRS and FC-IHRS |
| D'Agostino, 2001 [24] | No details provided. | Coronary death or myocardial infarction. | No details provided. | No details provided. | 8,713 | No details provided. | Framingham |
ACC/AHA, American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association; CHA2DS2VASc, Congestive Heart Failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 Years, Diabetes Mellitus, Prior Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack or Thromboembolism, Vascular Disease, Age 65 to 74 Years, Sex; CUORE, Continuous Ultrafiltration for Congestive Heart Failure; ECG, electrocardiography; FC-IHRS, fasting cholesterol INTERHEART risk score; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; ICD-10, International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision; INTERHEART, Effect of Potentially Modifiable Risk Factors Associated With Myocardial Infarction in 52 Countries; IQR, interquartile range; JNC VII, Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure; NL-IHRS, nonlaboratory INTERHEART risk score; PROCAM, Prospective Cardiovascular Münster.
∗
Unless otherwise indicated.