Table 2.

Estimated 5-year survival and AIDS-free survival^* under each monitoring and treatment strategy, CNICS and HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration, 2000–2015

“No direct effect” assumption	Strategy	No. of deaths	5-year survival (95% CI)	5-year survival difference (95% CI)	No. of deaths/AIDS	5-year AIDS-free survival (95% CI)	5-year AIDS-free survival difference (95% CI)
No	CD4 threshold 350/tight control	101	0.99 (0.99, 1.00)	0.01 (-0.02, 0.04)	262	0.98 (0.97, 0.99)	0.01 (-0.02, 0.03)
	CD4 threshold 500/tight control	123	0.98 (0.95, 1.00)	0 (reference)	309	0.98 (0.95, 1.00)	0 (reference)
	CD4 threshold 350/loose control	105	0.99 (0.98, 1.00)	0.01 (-0.02, 0.04)	267	0.98 (0.97, 0.99)	0.00 (-0.02, 0.03)
	CD4 threshold 500/loose control	126	0.98 (0.96, 1.00)	0.00 (-0.01, 0.01)	313	0.98 (0.96, 1.00)	0.00 (0.00, 0.01)
Yes	CD4 threshold 350/tight control	1,375	0.98 (0.97, 0.98)	0.00 (0.00, 0.01)	2,224	0.96 (0.96, 0.97)	0.00 (0.00, 0.01)
	CD4 threshold 500/tight control	1,478	0.98 (0.97, 0.98)	0 (reference)	2,514	0.96 (0.95, 0.97)	0 (reference)
	CD4 threshold 350/loose control	1,455	0.98 (0.97, 0.98)	0.00 (0.00, 0.00)	2,353	0.96 (0.95, 0.97)	0.00 (-0.01, 0.01)
	CD4 threshold 500/loose control	1,578	0.98 (0.97, 0.99)	0.00 (0.00, 0.00)	2,667	0.96 (0.95, 0.97)	0.00 (-0.01, 0.00)

These estimates were standardized by the baseline covariates: sex, CD4 cell count (≤200, 201–350, 351–500, ≥501 cells/μl), years since HIV diagnosis (<1, 1 to 4, ≥5 years, unknown), race (white, black, other or unknown), geographic origin (N. America/W. Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, other, unknown), acquisition group (heterosexual, homosexual or bisexual, injection drug use, other or unknown), calendar year (restricted cubic splines with 3 knots at 2001, 2007 and 2011), age (restricted cubic splines with 3 knots at 25, 39 and 60), cohort, and months from treatment initiation to virologic suppression (2–4, 5–8, ≥9).

^*All estimates rounded to the nearest hundredth