Table 3.
Predicted TB incidence by the ARIMA and ARIMA-GRNN hybrid models from July to December 2016
| Month | Observed incidence (1/100,000) | ARIMA model | ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted incidence (1/100,000) | Relative error (%) | Predicted incidence (1/1,00,000) | Relative error (%) | ||
| July | 2.7805 | 2.6083 | 6.1931 | 2.6911 | 3.2152 |
| August | 2.6302 | 2.5434 | 3.3001 | 2.6437 | 0.5133 |
| September | 2.7429 | 2.6608 | 2.9932 | 2.7494 | 0.2370 |
| October | 2.3484 | 1.9059 | 18.8426 | 2.3505 | 0.0894 |
| November | 2.5551 | 3.0261 | 18.4337 | 3.1326 | 22.6019 |
| December | 2.8932 | 2.9949 | 3.5151 | 3.1153 | 7.6766 |