Table 3.

Model results (outcome: ACS hospital admissions 65+ years, exposure: population aged 65+ years)

Covariate			IRR	P>|z|	95% CI
Time-varying effects	Real net spend on social care (within effect)*†		0.975	0.790	0.917 to 1.038
	Deaths‡		1.014	<0.001	1.008 to 1.019
Time invariant effects	Real net spend on social care (between effect)†§		1.230	<0.001	1.138 to 1.330
	Deprivation (IDAOPI)	Quintile 1 (ref)	1.000	–	–
		Quintile 2	1.100	0.001	1.038 to 1.165
		Quintile 3	1.234	<0.001	1.169 to 1.303
		Quintile 4	1.269	<0.001	1.188 to 1.356
		Quintile 5	1.352	<0.001	1.226 to 1.491
Year		2005/2006 (ref)	1.000	–	–
		2006/2007	1.018	0.019	1.003 to 1.033
		2007/2008	1.031	0.001	1.013 to 1.050
		2008/2009	1.090	<0.001	1.069 to 1.112
		2009/2010	1.138	<0.001	1.102 to 1.174
		2010/2011	1.202	<0.001	1.159 to 1.247
		2011/2012	1.235	<0.001	1.182 to 1.290
		2012/2013	1.197	<0.001	1.145 to 1.252
		2013/2014	1.188	<0.001	1.133 to 1.244
		2014/2015	1.302	<0.001	1.237 to 1.371
		2015/2016	1.281	<0.001	1.226 to 1.337
Constant			0.015	<0.001	0.011 to 0.020

*In-year difference from average spend in the local authority between 2005/2006 and 2015/2016.

†Per head population aged 65+ years.

‡Per 1000 population aged 65+ years.

§Average spend in the local authority between 2005/2006 and 2015/2016.

IDAOPI, Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index.